Thursday was the deadline to be eligible for the 2011 Grammys — as the last stragglers come in, we skip the needle with some very early predictions
No one took much notice, but Thursday was Grammy Day. Wanna win a Grammy in 2011? You had to have your record/CD/digital download out by Sept. 30.
Nominations won't be announced until Dec. 1, and 53rd annual awards show doesn't happen until next Feb. 13, but that won't stop TheWrap from getting in on the prediction business.
Here's everything you need to know about who to place your money on for the 53rd Grammy Awards.
Detroit’s finest, who has won an Oscar in 2002 for “Lose Yourself” and has 11 Grammys in his career so far, has had a great year with the global chart-topping “Recovery.” While a far cry from 10 million plus sales of 2000’s “The Marshal Mathers LP,” the bestselling artist of the decade has sold 2.67 million copies of “Recovery” domestically since it came out on June 21.
The album, which had the rapper’s hit “Love The Way You Lie” duet with Rihanna, was Eminem’s sixth consecutive U.S. number one and 2010’s bestseller so far – and the NARAS are very conscious of the importance of sales for their troubled industry. Ask last year's winner Taylor Swift.
He might not ever rival conductor Sir Georg Solti, whose 31 wins makes him the all time Grammy record holder, but as one industry insider said, “This year everyone else, even Jay-Z, Sade, Arcade Fire and Lady Antebellum, are just pretenders for Album of the Year next to Eminem.”
GAGA, KANYE & TAYLOR SWIFT CAN’T WIN
It's nothing personal — it's all about timing. Released on Nov. 18, 2009, “The Fame Monster” by the spotlight-hogging Lady Gaga was ineligible for a Grammy last time around. More than a year later, despite the huge online success of “Telephone,” which had Beyoncé both on the song and in the elaborate video, Gaga’s latest will seem positively ancient now to Grammy voters.
As for Taylor Swift, who won both Album of the Year and Best Country Album at the 52nd Grammys, and Kanye West — neither of them made the deadline. While both have had new singles, Swift’s “Speak Now” is coming out on Oct. 25, and Kanye’s new album is anticipated to drop sometime in November.
At least they'll make good for holiday sales.
The mop-top Canadian isn't just the dream date to millions of American teens, the Grammys want to hang with the Beeb, too.
First, there’s Bieber the Phenomenon. From his YouTube origins to hit singles, crazed fans, SRO tours, "SNL," MTV MVA and "CSI" appearances, late-night punch lines and even an upcoming doll line – Bieber is a megabrand right now — and the Grammys love those.
Last year, due to release dates, Bieber was ineligable, though he helped present the Best New Artist award to Zac Brown. This year, he's one of the frontrunners — both for Best New Artist and Best Male Pop Performance. The 16-year old’s first full album, “My World 2.0,” which came out on March 23, has proven a pop sensation worthy of his mentor Usher.
More good timing: His 3D concert documentary hits theaters just two days before the Grammys telecast.
Widely acclaimed as the best live band in hip-hop and now as the house band on “Late Night With Jimmy Fallon,” the Roots have played with everyone who matters and then some — but they’ve never had a real hit.
2010 changed that for Questloveand crew. “How I Got Over,” their ninth studio album, got up to number six on the charts when it debuted in June, and “Wake Up,” their collaboration of soul covers with John Legend, debuted at number eight when it came out on Sept. 21. (Watch the Roots & John Legend live, directed by Spike Lee, here.)
Add up the multiple categories they could be nominated in and the Academy’s affection for covers and the Roots — who’ve been nominated a number of times before and won in 1999 for Best Rap Performance by a Duo or Group — and it's a good bet a victory again this year is likely.
OLDIES ARE GOODIES
The NARAS has never exactly been a young man’s game. Classic rockers do very well at the Grammys and a lot of them have come out with new albums, mostly of familiar covers, recently. Remember Jethro Tull’s inexplicable win over Metallica for Best Hard Rock recording in 1990, and 2009's Album of the Year win by former Led Zeppelin frontman Robert Plant and Alison Krauss?
Classic rockers do very well at the Grammys, and a lot of them have come out with new albums, mostly of familiar covers, mostly in the last month.
Sheer sentimentality along make the odds look good for Jerry Lee Lewis, the original rock bad boy, and "Mean Old Man," his album of duets with Mick Jagger, Kid Rock, Tim McGraw and Sheryl Crow among others, that came out in early September. Then there's Plant, who brought out “Band of Joy”; Phil Collins, whose album of Motown covers, “Going Back," came after a lull of eight years; and Carlos Santana's "Guitar Heaven," which replicates his stellar 1999 guest-star-filled, Grammy-winning “Supernatural.”
And don't count out these: Carole King and James Taylor’s “Live at the Troubadour,” which came out May 4, and Tom Petty’s bestselling “Mojo,” which came out on June 15.
Finally, for the really old folks at heart: “Confessions,” Liza Minnelli’s back to basics collection of standards which came out on Sept. 21.
“They're not long lasting chart toppers,” Billboard's director of charts Silvio Pietroluongo told TheWrap, “but Glee always debuts high.” Hard to tell what category they’ll compete in — maybe Best Compilation Soundtrack — but when you’ve sold the millions of CDs and downloads that the kids of Lima Ohio's William McKinley High have, took Madonna back to the top of the charts, played the Super Bowl and the White House and revitalized the musical on TV, you know the Grammys are going to be bursting with "Glee."