Edward Jay Epstein book: indie's demise, Tinseltown fools Wall Street, and silly release windows
Hey Hollywood, welcome to your future
The ground has shifted beneath what for the better part of the century have been America’s most desirable products: movies and television shows.
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The ground has shifted beneath what for the better part of the century have been among America’s most reliable and desirable products: movies and television shows.
This thing called the Internet came along. And now anyone, anywhere in the industry will tell you this: Hollywood must adapt in order to survive.
But how?
The industry has faced challenges before. For decades through the end of the 20th century, the multi-billion-dollar economic freight train that is the entertainment business has met each threat posed by innovation by growing bigger still. Video enhanced the revenue stream of movies. Cable broadened the television audience. The international market became a source to rival domestic. DVDs were a bonanza at the dawn of the new millenium.
But cracks have formed in the hard earth that has been the bedrock of the popular culture and media consumed by people around the world.
Those cracks are evidenced in the broad changes in consumer behavior set in motion by Google, Facebook, YouTube, Digg and a host of other new companies that for the most part did not even exist a decade ago.
Some worry that Hollywood’s very survival is at stake. True or not, the changes have already ushered in a cast of new characters that dominate the decisions individuals make about how they spend their leisure time. Millennial-generation digital entrepreneurs like Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and Kevin Rose of Digg are displacing once-omnipotent Hollywood players such as DreamWorks’ David Geffen, who has just retired, or Michael Eisner, the former Disney mogul who has remade himself and is now a minor figure in the world of new media.
Thus far attempts to figure out exactly what a successful digital-era Hollywood venture will look like have met with scant success.
“People truly do not understand the extent to which new media is not a business,” said Marshall Herskovitz, the veteran television producer who last year declared his independence from the networks and created “quarterlife,” a web series and social media hub. “It’s remarkably not a business. I’m speaking from painful experience.” [Read the full interview.]
Herskovitz managed to make money from a single episode of the series that ended up airing on NBC before the show was cancelled. But he lost money on the 36 episodes that were streamed on Myspace and the show’s own site.
There are small signs that a web-based TV business could eventually be viable. Warner Bros Television has resurrected its popular-but-unsuccessful WB network as TheWB.com in August, and is offering their cancelled hits like “Gilmore Girls” as well as original programming for the site, which is attracting about 250,000 unique visitors per month.
But even for the Internet, that’s a moderate-sized audience. Perez Hilton’s one-man gossip site gets about 1.5 million unique visitors per month.
The star TV producer Josh Schwartz, creator of “Gossip Girl” and the “The O.C.,” is writing a series for TheWB.com about a group of friends who hang out in a rock club, with a social media component built in to the show. But to make economic sense, Herskovitz says, Schwartz will need to aggregate about four times more viewers than the site reaches on average.
“The moment of convergence is where you can create serialized video for 1 million viewers” on the web, he said.
Comments
Just Some Guy Says
Interesting think piece, although the death of the "Yari Company, New Line, Revolution " (how many years ago was that now?) hardly seems like the most telling evidence the industry's downturn in 2009. Hollywood is strewn with the rusting hulks of independent film companies including Rysher, Savoy, October, Destination, Trimark, Gramercy, Polygram Films, Artisan. In fact, with the exception of Lionsgate, pretty much every significantly funded independent domestic film company started in the last 25 years has either gone belly-up or, in a few cases, been bought out by one of the big boys (i.e. Miramax, Tristar)...
Anonymous Says
I cannot tell you how much I would LOVE to go to a movie at a theater but, alas, I have moved to the hinterlands (namely, anywhere out of NYC, SF, LA, and most of all Paris!) and during most of the year most movies here are aimed at teen-age boys... violence and crudeness being the main ingredients. Just read their movie rating descriptions. Giving up on those of us who grew up on movies, especially those made during the aforementioned '60s-'70s era, is definitely a huge factor in Hollywood's financial losses...and no one has capitalized on that more than NetFlix. The best acting and direction is now on TV, so we watch in the confines of our homes. How sad.
Anonymous Says
I'M LOVING THIS SITE!!! You scooped the world on SAG Prez Rosenberg's singin' the blues. You're out-Nikki-ing Finke, Radar has faded and you're on the rise. This Waxman article about Hollywood's flounder souffle is comprehensive and smart.
BULLY FOR YOU AND THANKS!
An Eager Hollywood Reader
Susan Goforth Says
Dear Sharon Waxman,
Your blog is a pleasure to read. I'm adding it to my favorite list. Thanks for the insight. And thanks to all the commentors too.
HollywoodMogul Says
I couldnt agree more, Bugsy Malone.
I almost fell out of my chair when I read about Candyland.
And ugh - remakes! I mean seriously, have you run out of ideas, Hollywood?? Go back to stealing from books and magazines, if you cannot think up anything on your own. But to redo your own movies?? I paraphrase Ditto--I saw it the first time, and it wasnt that good then.
Matches Malone Says
I've been writing about this for years. Film is dead. And as soon as Hollywood figures that out, the better off we'll all be.
Oh, and they need to stop doing remakes as well. I saw the movie the first time, and it was better then.
So, to review: Better, Faster, Cheaper.
Oh, one more thing: Candyland. Seriously?!?
The President's Analyst Says
Good discussion. I thought using "Easy Rider" graphic was a nice irony. "Easy" came out in '69 and some of the greatest American films ever made came out between 1967-1974. Going into that period, the film business was on it's ass and the economy was in total collapse.
Hopefully, we're due for a similar Renaissance. Go read Biskind's "Easy Riders, Raging Bulls," Then go rent a DV camera and save Hollywood again.
nanotim Says
Projected ad revenue from Dr. Horrible? No, this stuff doesn't get mentioned, as I suspect that the revenue related to it is still equivalent to the craft services bills for a day over at CBS. Just not on the radar, yet...I think.
You guys have data I don't?
Would love to continue talking about it. @nanotim on twitter. Hit me up.
Chris Dorr Says
A good first statement on what is occurring in the online video world, but it barely scratches the surface as others have noted. Why not have another tab on your front page that focuses on original video created for the internet. Give focus to this area by showing what is being produced, review it, discuss how it is produced and give it context. It is coming on fast and many people online are viewing it.
eric susch Says
I was disappointed that Dr. Horrible wasn't mentioned either. And no mention of companies like Revision3, blip.tv, and Vimeo that are doing pioneering work. Internet video isn't just about YouTube.
Some interesting statistics though. This site is new so maybe it'll take them a bit to get up to speed on what's happening in new media.
@culturaldiplomat
You are absolutely correct. I gave a presentation at The New Media expo last year where I compared the iPod to Edison's Kinetoscope. New media is still in it's infancy and no-one can even guess how it will evolve.
theonetruebix Says
Really? An entire article about Hollywood and new media, and while you talk to Herskovitz about his FAILURE you don't mention Joss Whedon and the SUCCESS of Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Blog even in passing?
culturaldiplomat Says
"“People truly do not understand the extent to which new media is not a business,” said Marshall Herskovitz, the veteran television producer"
"Film" was NOT a business either until stories and distribution came into play. Herskovitz has jumped the gun so to speak and applied a TV mentality to the web which doesn't really stick at the current moment. Simply wanting to apply old techniques to the web is generally not the best idea.
Web-TV and film is truly in it's infancy and it is almost impossible to simply ask for immediate results.
That said there is always a true hunger for real storytelling. youtubes' most popular videos, are music videos which in fact tell stories and execute a strong visual language. If you look closely at posted comments on amateurs and pros alike that create content you will notice people "want" story and professionalism.
Simply applying a "social"networking site to a webisode or serial will not make it
"hip". Audiences at both ends of the spectrum understand the difference. youtube and facebook are seen for what they are by their "unique" visitors - content delivery mechanisms - not storytelling marketplaces.
Knowledgeseeker Says
I predicted this change in media industry was going to happen at some point, soon it no longer going to need hundreds of millions of dollars to produce a movie. you going have people at home creating special effects on their home computers as more cheaper softwares becomes available.
I think also, that nigh clubs DJ's can become irrelevant and be out of work in the near future.
Todd Havens Says
Holy kiz-ow! Great wrap-up (pun not originally intended) on the state of the entertainment industry today.
Indeed, you've given us all the hallmarks of a great adventure to follow here.
Alexandra Klun Says
Can't wait to hear more, and what an adventure it will be.
Virtuakd Says
Congratulations on the launch of the site!
--- An Interested Party ---