TheWrap Picks the Oscar Contenders

Having won a screenplay Oscar for "Talk to Her," Almodovar has found a way to stay true to his indie roots while playing the Hollywood game, all to great critical and audience acclaim. He's back with Penelope Cruz, so one of these days, the writer-director will become a force in the major categories, and this may be the year.

NINE (The Weinstein Co., Nov. 25)

From the trailer alone, "Nine" looks and sounds like Oscar bait. The cast -- Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz -- is a walking-talking-singing trophy magnet. The musical is a well-known Broadway production, the director already helmed an Oscar-winning film in "Chicago," and it's from Bob and Harvey Weinstein.  But here's the problem: "Dreamgirls" was supposed to be a slam-dunk three years ago. It had everything going for it -- until it swung and missed at a Best Picture nomination. Lesson learned? You're a frontrunner -- until you're not.

BROTHERS (Lionsgate, Dec. 4)
Jim Sheridan has a great young cast in Jake Gyllenhaal, Natalie Portman and Tobey Maguire. Based on Susanne Bier's Danish film that won many awards back in 2004, the subject matter is post traumatic stress syndrome. It's yet another war movie -- we learned last year that people just didn't want to see "Lions for Lambs," "Stop Loss" or "Redacted" -- but the star power, a push from Lionsgate and a respected director who has delivered powerful dramas before ("In America," "In the Name of the Father," "My Left Foot") could lead to some Academy love.

INVICTUS (a.k.a. The Human Factor, Warner Bros., Dec. 11)

If there were one film that feels like a sure-thing, this is it. Oscar's good will  ambassador, Clint Eastwood, directs Morgan Freeman in the story of Nelson Mandela. That's about all voters will need to hear to perk up their ears (and turn up their hearing aids?). Add in another role from Damon, a late platform release, Eastwood's recent awards history and historical gravitas, and it's likely this will be a big part of the discussion more than any other release this year.

THE LOVELY BONES (Paramount/DreamWorks, Dec. 11)

Peter Jackson hasn't directed since "King Kong," so his next film is ripe for hype. "Lovely Bones" is an adaptation of a huge, haunting bestseller which has attracted a strong cast in Susan Sarandon, Stanley Tucci and Mark Wahlberg. Jackson may be getting a lot of press lately for his 2010 "Tintin" collaboration with Steven Spielberg, but if he can pull off a dramatic tour de force with "Bones" like he did with the movie that put him on the map, "Heavenly Creatures," and the "LOTR" trilogy, this one could be a true contender.

BIUTIFUL, (U.S distributor TBD, Dec 11)

Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu proved he could lead adult dramas to the winners circle  since "Babel" took home a Golden Globe and was nominated for seven Oscars three years ago.

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