One weekend.
Two awards shows.
More than 100,000 voters.
By Sunday night, the Oscar picture could be a lot clearer, or it could be a complete free-for-all.
Saturday's Directors Guild of America Awards and Sunday's Screen Actors Guild Awards have the potential to both clarify the awards picture and muddy it. "The Social Network" could be back on top by Monday morning -- or, just as easily, "The King's Speech" could have seized a commanding lead. Or "The Fighter" could make this a three-way dogfight.
When it comes to judging momentum and handicapping the race, this might well be the last crucial weekend before the Academy Awards.
That's because the major awards that will follow, the Writers Guild of America Awards on February 5 and the BAFTA Awards on February 13, are both limited in their ability to serve as accurate precursors: the WGA because some key Oscar contenders aren't even eligible, BAFTA because home-court advantage seems sure to give "The King's Speech" a win.
This weekend, though, could go in any of several directions.
There's a reason why the Weinstein Company has been screening "The King's Speech" incessantly, and why the film's ad campaign has shifted from a focus on Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter to one that encompasses the entire cast, including Guy Pearce, Derek Jacobi and Jennifer Ehle -- they want the SAG Best Ensemble award, which frequently seems to be given to the biggest ensemble. (Witness last year's win for "Inglourious Basterds.")
Not to be outdone, Paramount has pushed hard for "The Fighter" in advance of Friday's SAG deadline, including a Thursday screening at Harmony Gold that included not just director David O. Russell and stars Melissa Leo, Amy Adams and Jack McGee, but five of the actresses who played the sisters in the film. (They barely all fit on the stage, above right.)
The SAG Ensemble award, which became a key Oscar precursor in 2006 when it was the only guild award won by "Crash" before that film scored a surprise Oscar win, is the weekend's key battleground, because it could go to "The Social Network," "The King's Speech" or "The Fighter" (with an upset by "The Kids Are All Right" not completely out of the question).
First up, though, is the Directors Guild. The untelevised ceremony takes place Saturday night at Hollywood & Highland; for weeks if not months the conventional wisdom has been that David Fincher will win the top feature film award for "The Social Network."
Fincher is a far more known quantity among directors than "The King's Speech" helmer Tom Hooper, who has one prior nomination (for the HBO miniseries "John Adams") to Fincher's three (two of which, though, were for television commercials).
Sasha Stone, though, recently made a strong case that a Hooper upset was likely at the DGA – and if indeed "The King's Speech" has become the Oscar frontrunner, a victory with the directors is a strong possibility.
