"Midnight in Paris" showed unexpected strength. "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" overcame a late start to make a case for itself. And "War Horse" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" don't exactly look like potential Oscar juggernauts anymore.
Those are some of the lessons to be learned from the four major Hollywood guilds, which have all released their nominations in the past month.
The Screen Actors Guild announced its choices in mid-December, while the Producers Guild and Writers Guild announced last week, and the Directors Guild on Monday.
With the four guilds all having some overlap in their membership with the Academy, the results can be sifted for a few clues as to which direction Oscar voters may go.
Also read: Woody Allen, Michel Hazanavicius, Martin Scorsese Nominated by Directors Guild
Biggest winners: "The Descendants," "Midnight in Paris" and "The Artist"
Two films were nominated for top honors by the DGA, PGA and WGA, along with a SAG ensemble nod: "The Descendants" and "Midnight in Paris."
The former film has been an awards favorite since it debuted at Telluride and Toronto, despite murmurs that the deft blend of comedy and drama might feel too subtle and slight for Academy voters. But it swept the guilds to secure its position as one of the top two or three contenders.
"Midnight in Paris," meanwhile, showed unexpected strength in not only scoring expected nods from the PGA and WGA, but also landing a SAG ensemble nomination and Woody Allen's first DGA nomination in 22 years.
And you might as well put "The Artist" in this unanimous camp as well, since its failure to secure a WGA nomination was certainly due to the fact that it wasn't eligible for a WGA nomination.
Three out of four ain't bad: "Bridesmaids," "Hugo," "The Help" and "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo."
Let's face it – for "Bridesmaids," a raunchy R-rated comedy released in the summer, PGA, WGA and SAG nominations are better than not bad – they're borderline miraculous.
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" got a big boost from the guilds as well, overcoming a late release and an absence from many critics list to score with the PGA, the WGA and, most surprisingly, the DGA. The latter nomination might be a clue that the film is this year's "True Grit," which came out at the end of the year, scored a surprise nod from the directors and went on to receive 10 Oscar nominations.
(David Fincher might want to overlook the fact that it then went 0-for-10.)
As for "Hugo" and "The Help," both seem fairly secure in their Oscar chances – particularly the former, with Scorsese's DGA nomination reinforcing that his film is in the top five.
Hanging in there: "Moneyball," "The Ides of March"
The former is more of a critics' favorite, and its recognition by the producers and writers certainly kept it in the conversation.
