Ten best-picture nominees.
A new way of counting the final votes.
No clear favorite at this point.
Four potentially major films that have yet to be seen.
Isn’t that a recipe for an unpredictable Oscar season? Then why are things looking so damn predictable?
When more than a dozen bloggers and pundits and prognosticators made their predictions in Movie City News’ “Gurus of Gold” last week, eight films showed up on at least 12 of the 14 lists. Only 11 movies were deemed serious competitors for the 10 slots. And a different poll (the Envelope) with slightly different participants resulted in the same top nine, and only one difference in the top 12.
In what ought to be the most unpredictable Oscar race in years, have we really narrowed it down to that few films, that quickly?
With four months to go until the 82nd Academy Awards, can we really say with confidence that the Best Picture winner will be “Up in the Air” or “Precious” or “The Hurt Locker,” the acting winners Jeff Bridges, Carey Mulligan, Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique?
I hope not. I hope things come along to shock us all, to catch us pundits flat-footed, to throw the race into turmoil.
With four months to go until the big show, here’s a look at a race that ought to be impossible to forecast ... but looks as if it isn’t.
BEST PICTURE
At this point, I’d say that “Up in the Air,” “Precious” and “The Hurt Locker” are the three definite Best Picture nominees, and the three likeliest winners. But none has any sort of feeling of inevitability.
In the second tier I’d put “An Education,” “Up” and “A Serious Man.” That last one may be a tough sit for some people, but its fans are passionate – and with 10 slots up for grabs, a small but passionate fan base will be enough to get you a nomination. (It won’t get you a win, but it’ll get you a nom.)
And then we get to the big four, the movies that haven’t been screened for the press (and in some cases haven’t been screened for anybody). Rob Marshall’s musical “Nine,” Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela story “Invictus” and James Cameron’s “Avatar.” All are presumed in some circles to be strong contenders, possibly even frontrunners.
But if we’ve learned anything from the past few years, it’s that the presumed frontrunner in October or November is more often than not roadkill by January.
I bet that at least one of the big four will deliver on the advance hopes and wind up as a major player. Maybe two of them. Maybe, just maybe, three of them. But certainly not all four – and at this point, I’d be willing to bet that two will fall by the wayside.
Based on what I’m hearing at the moment, I suspect that “The Lovely Bones” will work and “Invictus” will disappoint … though maybe it won’t disappoint enough to knock Clint out of the race.
