In contrast to the Emmy’s drama-series categories, where many of the hottest contenders are first-year shows, the comedy field is full of familiar series with a history of Emmy recognition: “Veep,” “Silicon Valley,” “black-ish,” “Transparent,” “Master of None,” “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” and maybe even the five-time Emmy champ “Modern Family.”
That’s not to say that newcomer “Atlanta” won’t be a real contender, or that “Insecure,” “Dear White People” or even “Fleabag” couldn’t make a little Emmy noise.
A wild card: Lena Dunham’s “Girls,” which ended its six-season run with a well-received final season that might prompt Emmy voters to change their habit of mostly ignoring it.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
It’s always risky to say that an Emmy category looks easy to call, but this one might just fit that bill. “Veep,” “black-ish,” “Transparent,” “Silicon Valley,” “Master of None” and “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” should be repeat nominees from last year, and “Atlanta” should nudge out “Modern Family,” which has been losing the Emmy mojo it had in the days when it won this award for five years in a row.
Then again, Emmy voters have surprised us before with their lingering affection for “ModFam,” and it’s impossible to ever feel too secure in predicting what they’ll do.
Predicted nominees (in order of likelihood):
“Veep”
“Atlanta”
“Black-ish”
“Transparent”
“Silicon Valley”
“Master of None”
“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Don’t rule out: “Insecure,” “Modern Family,” “Girls,” “Dear White People,” “Baskets”
Possible upset: “Fleabag”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
They can’t ignore the new guy in town, “Atlanta” star Donald Glover, can they? But to fit him in, voters will have to get rid of one of last year’s nominees, most likely Will Forte from “Last Man on Earth.”
And while I love the IFC billboard that reads, “If OJ can get nominated, Jim Brockmire can too,” I’m not sure that the eminently deserving Hank Azaria can muscle in playing that oversexed, foul-mouthed baseball announcer in “Brockmire.”
Predicted nominees:
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”
Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
Thomas Middleditch, “Silicon Valley”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Don’t rule out: Hank Azaria, “Brockmire;” Will Forte, “Last Man on Earth;” Ted Danson, “The Good Place;” Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Possible upset: Kevin Bacon, “I Love Dick”
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Can Julia Louis-Dreyfus set a new Emmy record by winning six consecutive awards in this category? Yes, she probably can.
So who’ll get the honor of losing to Julia? Most likely it’ll be one newcomer, Issa Rae from “Insecure,” and a batch of returning nominees, including Tracee Ellis Ross from “black-ish” (the one who might actually have a slight chance of winning), Ellie Kemper from “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” and Lily Tomlin from “Grace & Frankie.”
Predicted nominees:
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-ish”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace & Frankie”
Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Don’t rule out: Sarah Jessica Parker, “Divorce;” Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag;” Kathryn Hahn, “I Love Dick”
Possible upset: Lena Dunham, “Girls”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Let’s face it: Many of the top moments in a very politicized year for television might have come from Alec Baldwin playing Donald Trump on “Saturday Night Live.” The political show “Veep” could add a couple more nominees — certainly Tony Hale, perhaps last year’s nominee Matt Walsh or the scene-stealing Timothy Simons, who benefited from a substantial storyline.
Outside of the political arena, Brian Tyree Henry and Lakeith Stanfield from “Atlanta” might find it difficult to break into a lineup of past nominees.
Predicted nominees:
Alec Baldwin, “Saturday Night Live”
Louie Anderson, “Baskets”
Tony Hale, “Veep”
Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Timothy Simons, “Veep”
Don’t rule out: Matt Walsh, “Veep;” Laurence Fishburne, “black-ish;” Brian Tyree Henry, “Atlanta;” Lakeith Stanfield, “Atlanta;” Adam Driver, “Girls;” Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”
Possible upset: T.J. Miller, “Silicon Valley”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Let’s face it, part 2: The top moment in a very politicized year for television might have been Kate McKinnon as Hillary Clinton singing Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” on “Saturday Night Live” four days after Donald Trump was elected president.
Beyond McKinnon and other front runners Judith Light (“Transparent”) and Anna Chlumsky (“Veep”), it’ll be a battle for the final three slots between old hands like Jane Krakowski (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”), Gaby Hoffman (“Transparent”), Julie Bowen (“Modern Family”) and Mayim Bialik (“Big Bang Theory”) and first-year contenders Andrea Martin (“Great News”), Rita Moreno (“One Day at a Time”) and Zazie Beetz (“Atlanta”).
Predicted nominees:
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
Judith Light, “Transparent”
Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Gaby Hoffman, “Transparent”
Andrea Martin, “Great News”
Don’t rule out: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family;” Rita Moreno, “One Day at a Time;” Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory;” Allison Williams, “Girls;” Carol Kane, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Could pull off an upset: Zazie Beetz, “Atlanta”