If this had happened on Wall Street, Bernie Madoff would’ve already been fingered for the crime.
Except this is Madison Avenue, Magazine City, and the money wasn't stolen -- it just never arrived.
Late last week, the Publishers Information Bureau released its third quarter results for consumer magazine advertising. The numbers, as expected, weren’t pretty: Industrywide, ad pages fell 26.6 percent during the quarter, putting the year-to-date slide at 27.2 percent – representing some 44,659 ad pages and – conservatively -- $3.47 billion in revenue that wasn't there in 2009.
Those still searching for reasons why Condé Nast shut down four titles and laid off 180 staffers, consider this: Ad pages for S. I. Newhouse’s titles fell roughly 41.8 percent during the first nine months of the year, according to PIB figures. (Toss out the shuttered Golf for Women and Men’s Vogue, for which ad pages were not counted in 2009, and the slide is 38.7 percent.) Year-to-date, that represents 9,357 lost ad pages – or about 21 percent of the industry’s downward spiral.
The publisher’s estimated ad revenues – less conservatively, given how rate card-stubborn Condé Nast has been, at least historically – were down 36.2 percent, representing a difference of $797,742,464, or 23 percent of the industry’s $3.47 billion malaise.
All of which means it’s reasonable to say that Condé Nast will likely lose $1 billion in advertising revenue in 2009, if it hasn’t already.
No wonder the Newhouse family is reportedly paying out of its own pocket for the first time in years.
Here are Condé Nast's ad page losses, in terms of percentage, by title:
Condé Nast Ad Pages, Percent Change, Jan.-Sept. 2009 vs. Jan.-Sept. 2008
1. Architectural Digest -49.0
2. W -46.2
3. Condé Nast Traveler -44.8
4. Gourmet -44.4
5. Wired -43.8
6. Elegant Bride -39.2
7. Teen Vogue -38.9
8. Details -36.0
9. Vanity Fair -34.1
10. Allure -33.7
11. Vogue -33.0
12. Bon Appetit -33.0
13. GQ -32.9
14. Lucky -29.4
15. The New Yorker -28.2
16. Golf Digest -26.3
17. Golf World -24.3
18. Glamour -22.4
19. Self -22.1
20. Brides -20.0
21. Cookie - 18.2
Not included: Conde Nast Portfolio (-73.5 percent); Domino (-90.1); Golf for Women; Men's Vogue.
Or, if you'd prefer, title-by-title.
CONDE NAST 2009 2008 2009 2008 TITLE DOLLARS DOLLARS %CHG PAGES PAGES %CHG GOLF FOR WOMEN 0 20,675,897 -100.0 0.00 334.53 -100.0 MEN'S VOGUE 0 24,807,713 -100.0 0.00 449.48 -100.0 DOMINO 5,135,313 38,851,180 -86.8 46.94 472.99 -90.1 CONDE NAST PORTFOLIO 7,297,256 22,522,450 -67.6 117.62 444.60 -73.5 ARCHITECTURAL DIGEST 64,242,408 120,104,410 -46.5 568.24 1,115.05 -49.0 W 68,127,519 120,351,876 -43.4 770.43 1,430.72 -46.2 CONDE NAST TRAVELER 75,258,719 128,923,138 -41.6 655.37 1,187.97 -44.8 GOURMET 40,444,784 68,399,856 -40.9 356.83 641.30 -44.4 WIRED 38,795,575 59,425,701 -34.7 430.64 765.68 -43.8 ELEGANT BRIDE 8,046,658 12,629,219 -36.3 211.87 348.68 -39.2 TEEN VOGUE 55,410,364 81,013,431 -31.6 497.68 814.50 -38.9 DETAILS 36,655,918 51,068,449 -28.2 541.46 845.82 -36.0 VANITY FAIR 135,441,092 187,969,921 -27.9
