As summer blockbusters begin to roll out every weekend, here's what we know about box office 2009: Mall cops, museums and mutants have had a great time. Russell Crowe, Julia Roberts and Robert Downey Jr. have not.
In a year that has defied economic indicators from every other industry, the overall box-office tally is up year-to-date from 2008 by an incredible 14 percent.
And many are predicting that this summer could outperform last summer's record $4.2 billion take.
But not everyone is enjoying the party.
While the tentpoles are starting to do what they do -- and most everything else, from “Paul Blart” ($146 million) to “Taken” ($145 million) to even “The Haunting in Connecticut” ($55 million) have been winners -- there have been some major misses.
"The Soloist" ($29 million), "State of Play" ($36 million), "Duplicity" ($40 million) and "Confessions of a Shopoholic" ($44 million) all can be considered wrong turns in '09.
What makes it more surprising is that most of these titles boast major movie stars. And another -- "Shopaholic" -- had one of the biggest producers on the planet behind it: Jerry Bruckheimer.
So what gives?
"It's the 'Lions for Lambs' syndrome," said one agent, who would speak only on condition of anonymity. "Well-intentioned movies with noble messages and big stars always look great on paper. But right now, the mass audiences don't want to see them."
Indeed, the serious adult movie has always had trouble at the box office, but in the current economic climate, escapism seems to be the key as theatergoing becomes the last cheap night out. Genre films like “The Last House on the Left” are meeting expectations, and “Wolverine,” "Star Trek," "Night at the Museum" and “Angels & Demons” are just too big not to do good business.
But despite the flood of them we get at the end of every year, the general movie for sophisticated audiences is becoming extinct.
"Adult movies with movie stars can work, but these just looked so boring," said one executive at a major studio, who would not speak for the record. "Nobody wants to see Jamie Foxx as a homeless person, and no one wants to see Russell Crowe fat and ugly. These movies looked like medicine, rather than entertainment.”
So instead of taking their pills, audiences were more inclined to ingest Zac Efron ("17 Again" -- $60 million), Miley Cyrus ("Hannah Montana: The Movie" -- $77 million) and the combo of Paul Rudd and Jason Segel ("I Love You, Man" -- $71 million), unproven bigscreen actors who delivered solid grosses.
Of course, it is all the clarity of hindsight, and no one in Hollywood will predict with certainty what movies work or won't. But a deeper look at these four misfires reveal different reasons why they didn't: timing, marketing and, in every case, plot.
"The Soloist"
DreamWorks' “The Soloist” suffered from bad buzz at the onset, moving from a prestigious November release to the dead zone of spring. Reviews were mostly negative (Rotten Tomatoes gave it a 55), and the plot was hard to summarize on a one-sheet (homeless man as a violin prodigy!).
