The "Twilight Saga" might not make it to sunup.
With an aging fan base, sexier and naughtier vampires and werewolves clawing it up on TV and a full year to go before the franchise ends, the four-film version of Stephenie Meyer's pre-teen fave will have a hard time crossing the finish line at the level of, say, the "Harry Potter" or "Star Wars" franchises.
Sure, "Breaking Dawn -- Part 1," which hits theaters Nov. 18, is the movie "Twilight" devotees have been waiting for: Edward and Bella finally get married and finally, you know, like, do it.
Even those of us above the age of 13 are curious to see if real-life couple Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart have chemistry in the big-screen boudoir, especially after director Bill Condon revealed their sex scenes had to be edited due to Pattinson's excessive "thrusting."
Last week, fans lined up as Pattinson, Stewart and Taylor Lautner stuck their hands and feet in cement in front of Grauman's Chinese Theater.
Also read: 'Twilight' Author Stephenie Meyer to Do Cameo in 'Breaking Dawn'
And tracking for the next "Twilight" film is good, with "Breaking Dawn" the bestselling movie ticket at Fandango as of late last week, according to the site's Harry Medved.
But nothing R. Patz and K. Stew do in theaters will surpass what the randy vampires on "True Blood" do weekly on the small screen. And as HBO's "Blood" has stolen some of "Twilight's" sex thunder with the older crowd, the CW's "Vampire Diaries" has given the teen set (oh OK, and some more mature viewers, too) a chance to get their fill of soapy vamp drama on a weekly basis.
Plus, the demo that created that frenzy has grown up. Except for the Twihards, the initial pre-teen-girl fan base -- we all know this is a largely female phenomenon -- has moved on to other things. It's hard to see them still wearing those Team Edward or Team Jacob tees.
In fact, it's hard to see anyone still wearing those tees.
On the other hand, it wasn't uncommon to hear not just kids but twentysomethings, thirtysomethings -- and older -- of both sexes wax on about the "Potter" books and movies.
Publisher Hachette Book Group estimated that 1.3 million "Breaking Dawn" books were sold in the first 24 hours of its release in August 2008, a franchise record.
But even that lofty figure can't compete with the 8.3 million copies of "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows" that were moved on its first day of release back in July 2007.
Then there are the "Twilight" stars themselves.
There's no question that those same fans will be lining up to see "Breaking Dawn -- Part 1."
But there's also little question their heat outside the narrow fan base has cooled.
