ALSO READ: "And 5 Reasons 3D in Theaters Could Be in Trouble"
After nearly six decades -- and numerous fits and starts -- 3D appears to have finally established a tenuous foothold in theaters, with nearly 4,500 screens converted to the format to date and many more to come by the end of the year.
As for 3D infiltrating the living room, too? We’re betting our flat screens that’s a bridge too far.
You’d think that with all the trouble they had over the last decade just getting HD into the majority of American homes, the major consumer electronics brands, cable companies and movie studios would wait a bit before charging headlong into 3D. You know, just to be double-sure that this latest flurry of interest in 3D isn’t just a fad.
But they made it doubly clear at National Association of Broadcasters conference this week: “We’re going for it anyway.”
Here's why the odds of successful mass adoption of 3D in the home, at least in the short term, are long:
1. It took forever for HDTV to get off the ground. Now this?
After Panasonic and Philips became the first to introduce high-definition TV sets back in 1998, it took another five years for an HD channel to launch. (That was ESPN -- always on the leading edge of broadcast technology.)
It would take nearly a decade for the wide-scale deployment of hi-def. That includes flat screens and a serious selection of HD channels. And that said, Blu-ray -- still only about 12 percent of disc sales -- remains well below where its developers originally thought they’d be at this point.
It is true that the operatives behind 3D TV are moving at a much faster pace than they were for HDTV.
“I’ve seen the world’s finest 3D content at NAB, from the stuff that’s headed to ESPN to things like ‘Alice in Wonderland’ that are going to be on Blu-ray,” noted consumer electronics analyst Richard Doherty told TheWrap. “The content is noticeably better than it was at (January’s Consumer Electronics Show). “It’s taken a real big step in just 98 days. HDTV never moved that fast.”
Indeed, one month after the first 3D sets hit shores, there's already a packaged media format available: At $2,900, Panasonic's Viera-model 50-inch plasma TV comes with a 3D-ready Blu-ray player, a 3D copy of Fox's "Ice Age 3" and a pair of 3D glasses. And they're already sold out.
ESPN has a dedicated channel launching in June, with another channel jointly established by Sony, IMAX and Discovery coming next year. DirecTV has also announced a dedicated 3D offering, as has Europe's Sky.
But a small handful of channels in two years is heardly enough. And not only will more dedicated channels be needed, but many more cable and satellite boxes will have to be developed.
It makes the shortage of 3D screens in theaters look like only a slight bump in the road.
In short, companies like ESPN, DreamWorks and Sony might be betting billions of dollars, but many other cable channel operators, and cable and satellite set-top box suppliers, are going to have to ante in before this thing can be declared working.
