The boldest play you'll see on NBC this year may not have happened during the Super Bowl.
Tonight, the fourth-place network throws its biggest hopes for the season up against most-watched network CBS, which is at its strongest on Monday nights. The success or failure of "The Voice" and the new "Smash" will likely decide whether Bob Greenblatt's first full season as NBC's entertainment chairman is eventually deemed a success or failure.
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"The Voice" was a surprise hit for NBC last midseason. In hopes of building huge momentum for its second season, NBC gave its premiere the plum spot after the Super Bowl.
It hopes the show, airing from 8 to 10 on Monday nights, will provide a huge lead-in for the new musical drama "Smash," which enters a 10 p.m. timeslot that has brought dreary ratings for the canceled "The Playboy Club" and "Rock Center," which held it earlier this season.
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It's a major risk. CBS's 8-10 Monday comedy lineup, including "Two and a Half Men" and the new hit "Two Broke Girls," has been largely bulletproof this season. At times it has even beat new episodes of other networks' shows with reruns.
Adding to NBC's challenges, Mondays are also home to the long-running ABC hit "The Bachelor" and Fox's "House," as well as the new "Alcatraz," which has earned respectable ratings since its January debut.
CBS's "Hawaii 5-0" at 10 has earned strong ratings, but shed some of the audience for the sitcoms that lead into it. NBC hopes "The Voice" can lure away its audience – or at least capture those uninterested in the island procedural.
"Smash," whose all-star cast includes Debra Messing, Anjelica Huston and Katharine McPhee – seems to be the new NBC show closest to Greenblatt's heart. He brought the Steven Speilberg production with him from Showtime when he joined NBC last January. And the network has aggressively promoted it, hoping it will be the second breakout hit on Greenblatt's watch. ("The Voice," the first, was in development before he took over.)
The network also offered the show online and on-demand before the premiere.
Adding to the high stakes for "Smash" is the uncertain history of musical shows – and especially musical dramas. The embarrassing failure of ABC's "Cop Rock" scared networks off from musicals for years, until the a string of movie successes made them seem once again worth the risk. Fox scored a big hit with the 2009 debut of "Glee," though its ratings have slipped in this its third season.
No film has done more for the current comeback of TV musicals than "Chicago," the 2003 Oscar winner for best picture. Not coincidentally, "Smash" boasts the production team behind "Chicago," Craig Zadan and Neil Meron. The production team is just one element of "Smash" that NBC hasn't left to chance.
