The Chin is back.
Less than a year after signing off as host of "The Tonight Show," Jay Leno returns to the late-night battlefield Monday, bruised and battered from the spectacular failure of his primetime show and the collateral damage caused by NBC's controversial decision to dump Conan O'Brien.
Plenty is at stake for Leno, who no doubt wants to quickly rebuild his rep as Mr. Nice Guy and reclaim his status as America's first choice in late night.
Likewise, much is on the line for NBC. Executives are praying that no long-term damage has been done to the network's iconic late-night franchise, while hoping that the end of Leno in primetime will clear the way for a much-needed ratings recovery.
(Also read: The Vilification of Jay Leno: Loud, Nasty and ... Fleeting)
There's plenty to ponder. Let's start with the five biggest unanswered questions:
Will Jay regain his ratings crown?
For the first week of "Tonight 2.0," almost certainly. NBC has been promoting Jay's return heavily during the Olympics. And Leno has booked a slew of Olympic medalists for his first week of shows. Add in the rubbernecking factor, and it's hard not to see Leno doing quite well his first week back at 11:35 p.m.
After that, however, TV industry opinion is far from unanimous.
Many observers believe there's no reason Leno shouldn't once again finish ahead of David Letterman, Jimmy Kimmel and "Nightline" -- if not immediately, at least in the long run.
"The average median age of Jay Leno on 'The Tonight Show' was 54," longtime media analyst Steve Sternberg noted in an online report last week. "This means half of his viewers are 55 or older -- generally an age group that is very loyal. There's no reason not to expect them to happily welcome him back to his old timeslot."
Others have argued that Leno's reputation has taken a hit with viewers. An Oprah.com poll a few weeks ago found most viewers thought Leno had wronged O'Brien by accepting NBC's offer to return as host of "Tonight."
We're not so sure viewers will hold a grudge against Leno. But that doesn't mean it's a straight line back to No. 1 for the Chin.
Remember, Leno's been out of the late-night game for nearly a year now -- and once-loyal viewers were given the chance to sample the competition. Leno lovers who checked out Letterman or "Nightline" in Jay's absence from 11:35 might not all be so quick to return to old habits.
What does Jay's return mean for Dave?
After spending the past decade a consistent No. 2 to "The Tonight Show," Letterman finally pulled ahead of the NBC show in overall viewership during the Conan era (though Coco still won among viewers under 50). Now, with Jay back in the game, Letterman could soon be back to runner-up status.
But so what? Letterman's been red-hot in the past year, winning critical praise and pop culture buzz for his feud with Palin, his interview with President Obama and that awesome Super Bowl promo with Leno and Oprah.
