Clearly it's not easy to program a network. And buyers, deep down, know that.
They also know that it's hard to tell which new show is going to be a hit from some clips at an upfront presentation.
Some, like ABC's "Cavemen" from a few years ago, are no-brainers. But others, like "FlashForward," can fool everyone. There was not a buyer who walked out of the ABC presentation last year not thinking it would be the hit of this season.
This year,TheWrap randomly polled a bunch of media buyers and came up with a list of five shows most of them believe will be renewed after the 2010-11 season -- and five shows that will not make it through.
5 THAT WILL SUCCEED
1. Better Together (ABC, 8:30 p.m. Wednesday). It will it fit perfectly between this year's two freshman comedy hits, "The Middle" and "Modern Family" -- funny like "Modern Family" but a little more mainstream.
2. Lonestar (Fox, 9 p.m. Monday). Has all the stuff of legendary primetime drama "Dallas." Nuff said.
3. Nikita (The CW, 9 p.m. Thursday). Maggie Q as a sort of female Jason Bourne in a show leading out of "Vampire Diaries."
4. The Event (NBC, 9 p.m. Monday). "24" fans will need a new of high- octane conspiracy thriller fix.
5. $#*! My Dad Says (CBS, 8:30 p.m. Thursday). Leading out of hot sitcom "Big Bang Theory" and starring William Shatner as an outspoken, politically incorrect dad. Shades of Archie Bunker?
5 THAT WILL FAIL
1. Detroit 1-8-7 (ABC, 10 p.m. Tuesday). A dark street cop drama few likable characters. And Michael Imperioli as a lead detective? No way.
2. Raising Hope (Fox, 9 p.m. Tuesday). Clueless people raising a child might be hard for many people to laugh at.
3. Outsourced (NBC, 9:30 p.m. Thursday). Could be a one-trick pony. Funny first episode but those India jokes could get old fast.
4. Love Bites (NBC, 10 p.m. Thursday). Leading out of "Outsourced" won't help, and the "Love, American Style" thing may not play so well anymore.
5. No Ordinary Family (ABC, 8 p.m. Tuesday). A live action show that resembles the animated hit "The Incredibles," but will Michael Chiklis be as good as Craig T. Nelson's Mr. Parr? And can an animated show be turned into live action?