After weeks of flirting, Fox and Conan O'Brien are about to take their relationship to the next level.
Nobody from the network or Team Coco will talk about it openly, but it's clear both camps have begun doing their respective due diligence as they try to figure out how a deal might be hammered out to bring O'Brien to Fox. Given the desire to get a show launched by January at the latest, industry insiders believe it's now a matter of days or weeks (not months) before formal conversations begin.
To make Conan on Fox a reality, however, everyone involved will have to eschew the dynamics of past network deals for late-night talent. This dance won't be about a big star demanding monster amounts of money for his services (CBS-Letterman), nor will it be a case of a network rolling the dice on a largely unproven figure in the hope that the investment will eventually pay off (ABC-Kimmel).
Instead, if Coco is to find a home on Fox, both parties need to act as if they're launching a business together -- with shared risk and mutual reward. That means managing expectations, committing to a long-term plan and figuring out a way to ensure nobody gets soaked if the whole venture simply doesn't click with viewers.
It will also require a greenlight from News Corp. chief Rupert Murdoch, who last week made it clear that he's very open to the idea.
"Certainly if the program people can show us that we could do it, and be fairly confident of making a profit on it, we'd do it in a flash," Murdoch said during a earnings conference call. "We're giving it a lot of thought and a lot of examination."
Beyond generalities, both sides are starting to clam up about the matter. Even in off the record conversations, people from both Fox and the O'Brien camp are suddently hesitant to talk about what's next or possible game plans.
That's a good sign. The NBC-Conan divorce was a messy spectacle because both parties lost faith in each other and decided there was little to lose by lobbing grenades at each other via the media.
If Fox and Conan are going to get together, all parties need to agree to not posture in the press -- or in private -- and instead focus on whether a mutually beneficial deal can be struck.
Other ground rules for a successful marriage, based on conversations with numerous people familiar with the late-night landscape:
-- Everyone needs to realize The Coco Show will start out more like a syndicated series than a network show. That's because some affiliates simply aren't going to want to give up their current profits to take a chance on running O'Brien at 11, after their 10 p.m. newcasts. And Fox probably isn't in the mood to start making too many concessions to affiliates in order to get them on board.
As a result, it's quite possible that O'Brien on Fox would launch with far less than full national clearance at 11 p.m.
