Last week, when Conan O’Brien made a surprise, pre-launch appearance on “Lopez Tonight,” George Lopez greeted him saying, "welcome to basic cable."
It was a warm welcome -- something Jay Leno and NBC failed to give O’Brien when they forced him out of the “Tonight Show” chair just seven months in.
But as O’Brien makes his historic late-night leap -- or fall -- from broadcast to cable (with a lower budget to match) one person who might not be so welcoming is Jon Stewart.
Why? Because the “Daily Show” now faces something it didn’t have before: competition.
“’Conan’ absolutely presents a threat for Stewart,” Brad Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon Media, told TheWrap. “Until now, ‘The Daily Show’ has had to compete with local news and syndicated sitcoms.”
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Many are anxious to see if O’Brien – with his Coco-faithful -- can build an general audience to rival Leno’s return to “Tonight,” which would be a poetic footnote to one of the most mismanaged, poorly-handled public decisions in television history.
Monday’s premiere “is sure to raise memories of the whole ugly scene,” Time’s James Poniewozik wrote recently. “[NBC’s plan was] it would pay Conan off, Jay would go back to the 'Tonight' show, and whatever PR fallout there was, at least Jay would do better than Conan.” Yet, seven months into Leno’s reinstallation on “Tonight,” his ratings among 18-49-year-olds have slipped below what Conan’s were -- and he doesn’t have his own poor lead-in to blame.
But the real challenge is for O’Brien to unseat Stewart, who rode the wave of publicity ahead of his “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” to a ratings milestone.
In October, "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" averaged more 18-49 viewers than both Dave Letterman’s “Late Show” and “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” the first time any talk show has beaten the current kings of late night in the demographic most coveted by advertisers since at least 2000.
According to Nielsen, “The Daily Show" averaged 1.3 million viewers in the 18-49 demo in October, with 1.2 million each for Leno and Letterman. (Worth noting, too, that Letterman eclipsed Leno for the first time since Jay came back on the air, winning the battle for in total viewers, 3.8 million to 3.6 million, per Nielsen. Also worth noting: ABC’s “Nightline” has beaten them both in total viewers four weeks in a row.)
See also: Conan Makes Surprise Late Night Debut on TBS (video)
The median age of the Letterman viewer is 56, Leno, 55, according to the Los Angeles Times. “The Daily Show,” meanwhile, attracts more adults 18-34 than any other late night talk show on the air, and has attracted more men in that age range since 2005.
When you drill down to the 18-24 age group, Stewart has pulled in more young adults than anyone in late night since 2007, and more men since 2004.
