The revolution will not be televised after all.
NBC has spent the better part of a year touting -- and then defending -- its decision to dump five hours per week of scripted programming for the much-cheaper "Jay Leno." It was described as a groundbreaking, industry-changing move that would create a new paradigm for broadcast TV.
On Thursday, NBC basically admitted -- by its actions, if not yet its words -- that its bold experiment had failed.
It's a messy defeat at a horrible time for the network, which is desperately trying to find any momentum it can to lift itself out of fourth place in advance of Comcast's pending acquisition of parent company NBC Universal.
It's also another black mark on the track record of NBC U chief Jeff Zucker, who risked heavy amounts of political capital on the idea of Leno in primetime.
In the end, the bet didn't pay off.
After hours of internet rumors and wild blog postings, by the end of the day Thursday it was clear that intense pressure from affiliates dissatisfied with Leno's poor primetime ratings was forcing NBC to move quickly to shake up the late-night status quo.
Changes now very likely as early as March.
According to people familiar with the situation, NBC executives are worried that a significant number of local stations -- perhaps up to a third -- could start bailing on "The Jay Leno Show" as early as this spring. That's because local sweeps periods are still used to set ad rates, and with Leno impacting local news ratings, stations already under intense financial strain fear they could take a bath if change doesn't happen soon.
As a result, NBC has all but decided it can't keep Leno at 10 p.m. beyond next month. Holding up an official announcement: Working out an alternative plan that also meets with the approval of both Leno and Conan O'Brien.
Both men have contracts which guarantee them millions if NBC changes the current situation, in which Leno airs at 10 and O'Brien at 11:35.
A scenario favored by some NBC insiders has Leno returning to 11:35 and O'Brien shifting back 30 minutes to 12:05. But that idea, while very much on the table, is not guaranteed to become reality, insiders told TheWrap.
Talks between Leno and O'Brien's reps have been ongoing. Ditto the conversations with affiliates, who've been increasingly vocal in their displeasure with the 10 p.m. lead-in Leno has been supplying.
NBC has also been preparing backup plans for months now, insiders said. The network has been researching various scheduling scenarios -- Leno at 8, Leno at 11, Conan at 12:05 a.m. -- to see how viewers might react.
Such base-covering is unsurprising given that networks are constantly researching and testing just about everything, from show concepts to timeslot switches.
