If you’re wondering who might win some of the below-the-line categories at Sunday’s Academy Awards, here’s a hint:
Stick with the films that are also nominated for Best Picture.
If you go back six years, to when the Academy expanded the Best Picture field from five to 10 nominees (and then adjusted it to a variable number two years later), the vast majority of Oscar winners in almost all categories have come from the films nominated for the Oscars’ top award.
Overall, 80 percent of the Oscar winners in all categories except documentary, foreign-language, animation and shorts have come from Best Picture nominees.
And in the directing, original screenplay, adapted screenplay, cinematography, musical score and sound mixing categories, it’s been a clean sweep for best-pic nominees: They’ve won every award handed out in those categories since the expansion.
Clearly, a Best Picture nomination gives all of a film’s nominees a big leg up – maybe because it means Oscar voters are generally favorably disposed toward everything about the film, or more likely to watch that film’s screener.
Other stats: In the four acting categories, 19 of the 24 winners have been from best-pic contenders. The Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories both split 5-1 in favor of performances from best picture nominees, and Best Supporting Actress was 6-0; only Best Actress was split, with three winners coming from best-pic films (“The Blind Side,” “Black Swan” and “Silver Linings Playbook”) and three not (“The Iron Lady,” “Blue Jasmine” and “Still Alice”).
In film editing and visual effects, five of the six have been from the best-pic ranks. In art direction (now called production design), four of the six have.
In fact, there are only two categories in which most of the winners come from films that weren’t in the Oscars’ top category: Best Costume Design and Best Original Song, both of which gave the Oscar to two best-pic nominees and four non-nominees.
Along with Best Actress, Best Makeup and Hairstyling also split 3-3.
The moral: In your Oscar pool, it might be risky to pick “Carol,” “Ex Machina,” “Inside Out” or “Straight Outta Compton” in the screenplay categories, or “The Hateful Eight” in cinematography, or even “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” in visual effects.
On the other hand, it seems likely that the 6-0 string for Best Picture nominees in the Best Original Score category will be broken this year; only one of the five nominees, “Bridge of Spies,” is a best-pic contender, while the others are “Carol,” “The Hateful Eight” (the favorite), “Sicario” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”
For that category, at least, it’d be smart to ignore the Best Picture rule. For the rest of the ballot, do so at your own risk.
What's Up Next for This Year's Oscar Nominees (Photos)
Cate Blanchett, Best Actress, "Carol" Upcoming projects: Blanchett next stars in a pair of Terrence Malick movies -- “Knight of Cups” and “Weightless” -- and is poised to co-star in Marvel’s “Thor: Ragnarok.” She is also slated to play Lucille Ball in an upcoming biopic, star in Richard Linklater’s adaptation of “Where’d You Go, Bernadette” and voice the mischievous Kaa in Andy Serkis’ “Jungle Book: Origins.”
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Brie Larson, Best Actress, "Room" Upcoming projects: Larsonhas wrapped Ben Wheatley’s crime movie “Free Fire” and the India-set musical rom-com “Basmati Blues,” which should lift her international profile. If not, there’s always “Kong: Skull Island,” the 2017 release in which she plays the female lead. Larson is also set to play Jeanette Walls in “The Glass Castle,” which will reteam her with “Short Term 12” director Destin Daniel Cretton.
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Jennifer Lawrence, Best Actress, "Joy" Upcoming projects: Lawrence will next be seen reprising her role as Mystique in “X-Men: Apocalypse” before Chris Pratt wakes her up from a deep sleep in Sony’s sci-fi romance “Passengers.” She’s also writing a movie with Amy Schumer, producing a film about Fidel Castro’s lover titled “Marita,” and directing “Project Delirium,” not to mention starring in Darren Aronofsky’s next movie.
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Saoirse Ronan, Best Actress, "Brooklyn" Upcoming projects: The young Irish actress has wrapped an adaptation of Anton Chekhov’s “The Seagull,” which co-stars Elisabeth Moss, Corey Stoll and Annette Bening, and also "Loving Vincent,” which explores the life and mysterious death of Vincent Van Gogh. In addition, Ronan is attached to star in a long-gestating adaptation of Ian McEwan’s novel “On Chesil Beach.”
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Charlotte Rampling, Best Actress, "45 Years" Upcoming projects: The veteran actress has wrapped Guy Maddin’s “Seances” and the indie “The Sense of an Ending” with Michelle Dockery, while she next stars in the drama “Waiting for the Miracle to Come.”
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Byran Cranston, Best Actor, "Trumbo" Upcoming projects: Cranston may be the busiest of all of the Best Actor nominees. He plays President Lyndon B. Johnson in Jay Roach's HBO movie “All the Way,” and a U.S. Customs official who uncovers a money laundering scheme involving Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar in “The Infiltrator.” He also stars in Robin Swicord’s indie drama “Wakefield,” has a supporting role in James Franco’s comedy “The Disaster Artist,” will lend his voice to Wes Anderson’s next movie and star opposite Franco in the 20th Century Fox comedy “Why Him?”
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Matt Damon, Best Actor, "The Martian" Upcoming projects: Damon has two huge movies on the horizon between “Jason Bourne” and Legendary’s China-set “The Great Wall,” along with being set to star in George Clooney’s “Suburbicon” and Alexander Payne’s “Downsizing.” Damon is also a producer on the acclaimed Sundance drama “Manchester By the Sea,” a likely awards contender next year, and he has been rumored for a cameo role in director Steven Soderbergh’s return to film “Logan Lucky.”
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Leonardo DiCaprio, Best Actor, "The Revenant" Upcoming projects: The Oscar frontrunner has not chosen his follow-up to “The Revenant” yet, although he's eyeing Paramount's "Conquest." In the meantime, he’s a producer on Ben Affleck’s “Live by Night” and a Topher Grace horror movie titled “Delirium.” He’s also an executive producer on Lionsgate’s “Robin Hood: Origins” starring Taron Egerton and is developing no shortage of high-profile projects under his Appian Way banner, including a live-action “Akira” movie and Martin Scorsese’s adaptation of “The Devil in the White City,” in which he’s slated to play serial killer H.H. Holmes.
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Michael Fassbender, Best Actor, "Steve Jobs" Upcoming projects: Fassbender has a busy 2016, with no less than five films slated for release. He stars opposite real-life girlfriend Alicia Vikander in Derek Cianfrance’s DreamWorks drama “The Light Between Oceans.” He reprises his role as Magneto in “X-Men: Apocalypse” and tackles another Fox franchise with “Assassin’s Creed,” which he’s producing. Fassbender also has Terrence Malick’s “Weightless” and the crime drama “Trespass Against Us” in the can. He’s currently playing Harry Hole opposite Rebecca Ferguson in “The Snowman,” based on Jo Nesbo’s detective series, and is set to reprise his “Prometheus” role as David in Ridley Scott’s “Alien: Covenant."
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Eddie Redmayne, Best Actor, "The Danish Girl" Upcoming projects: Redmayne just wrapped the role of Newt Scamander in WB’s “Harry Potter” spinoff “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” which reunites author J.K. Rowling with director David Yates. The film is expected to launch a franchise, but beyond that, Redmayne’s calendar is wide open. We have no doubt it will fill up in the coming weeks.
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Jennifer Jason Leigh, Supporting Actress, "The Hateful Eight" Upcoming projects: As first reported by TheWrap, Leigh is in negotiations to star in Alex Garland’s next sci-fi movie “Annihilation” alongside Natalie Portman, Gina Rodriguez and Tessa Thompson. She next stars opposite Bella Thorne in the horror movie “Amityville: The Awakening,” and has wrapped Rob Reiner’s political drama “LBJ,” in which she plays Lady Bird Johnson opposite Woody Harrelson.
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Rooney Mara, Supporting Actress, "Carol" Upcoming projects: Mara has a busy 2016 with five films due for release including Terrence Malick’s “Weightless” and Laika’s animated movie “Kubo and the Two Strings.” She also stars in “Lion” with Nicole Kidman and Dev Patel, “Una” with Ben Mendelsohn and Riz Ahmed, and “The Secret Scripture” with Theo James and Eric Bana. Additionally, Mara is attached to star in a Mary Magdalene movie and Charlie McDowell’s “The Discovery” with Nicholas Hoult, while she also says she’s still in line to play Lisbeth Salander in “The Girl in the Spider’s Web.”
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Rachel McAdams, Supporting Actress, "Spotlight" Upcoming projects: The “Spotlight” star is currently filming Marvel’s “Doctor Strange” with Benedict Cumberbatch. She also voices The Mother in the animated film “The Little Prince,” but beyond that, she doesn’t have anything lined up aside from a very bright future.
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Alicia Vikander, Supporting Actress, "The Danish Girl" Upcoming projects: Vikander has wrapped “The Light Between Oceans” with Michael Fassbender and “Tulip Fever” with Dane DeHaan and Christoph Waltz. She also co-stars opposite Matt Damon in “Jason Bourne,” which will blow up theaters this summer, and is slated to star in Wim Wenders’ romantic drama “Submergence” with James McAvoy.
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Kate Winslet, Supporting Actress, "Steve Jobs" Upcoming projects: The scene-stealer embraces her dark side with a villainous turn in “Triple 9,” which hits theaters this weekend, and as TheWrap first reported, she’s nearing a deal to co-star alongside Will Smith in New Line’s unconventional drama “Collateral Beauty,” which started filming this week.
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Christian Bale, Supporting Actor, "The Big Short" Upcoming projects: Bale next stars in a pair of Terrence Malick movies -- “Knight of Cups” and “Weightless” -- and has also wrapped the indie drama “The Promise” with Oscar Isaac. He recently signed on to star in Scott Cooper’s Western drama “Hostiles,” and will lend his voice to the role of Bagheera in Andy Serkis’ “Jungle Book: Origins.”
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Tom Hardy, Supporting Actor, "The Revenant" Upcoming projects: Hardy is currently filming Steven Knight’s miniseries “Taboo,” after which he’ll segue into Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk.” He’s also attached to star in an Elton John biopic, the video game movie “Splinter Cell,” Kathryn Bigelow’s “True American” and a pair of projects about animal poaching and trafficking.
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Mark Ruffalo Supporting Actor, "Spotlight" Upcoming projects: Ruffalo next stars in “Now You See Me 2” and he’s set to reprise his role as Bruce Banner, aka the Hulk, in Marvel’s “Thor: Ragnarok,” though rumor has it the Green Giant may also turn up in “Captain America: Civil War.” That would be smashing, wouldn’t it?
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Mark Rylance, Supporting Actor, "Bridge of Spies" Upcoming projects: The revered stage actor recently reteamed with “Bridge of Spies” director Steven Spielberg for “The BFG,” in which he plays the title character created by Roald Dahl. That film hits theaters this summer, around the time that Rylance will film a supporting role alongside his fellow supporting nominee Tom Hardy in Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk.”
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Sylvester Stallone, Supporting Actor, "Creed" Nominated film: Stallone hasn’t set any live-action acting projects since his comeback with “Creed.” The champ lends his voice to a pair of animated movies -- “Animal Crackers” and “Ratchet and Clank” -- and he’s also shepherding a remake of “Death Wish” as a producer along with “Expendabelles,” a female-driven riff on “The Expendables.”
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Adam McKay, Best Director, "The Big Short" Upcoming projects: As he waits to learn whether “The Big Short” will win Best Picture, McKay hasn’t committed to directing anything yet, though he’s still keeping busy. He’s set to co-write “Ant-Man and the Wasp” for Marvel and he’s a producer on both “The Boss” with Melissa McCarthy and “The House” with Will Ferrell. He also executive produced Sacha Baron Cohen’s upcoming action-comedy “The Brothers Grimsby.”
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George Miller, Best Director, "Mad Max: Fury Road" Upcoming projects: The Australian mad man has not settled on a follow-up to “Mad Max,” though he has said he’d like to make a smaller movie before focusing on any potential sequels or spinoffs to his Oscar-nominated action flick.
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Alejandro G. Inarritu, Best Director, "The Revenant" Upcoming projects: Poised to win his second straight directing Oscar, Inarritu is looking for his next bear to tackle, though he’s expected to produce a Guillermo del Toro movie called “Saturn and the End of Days,” which chronicles the end of the world as seen through the eyes of a young boy.
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Lenny Abrahamson, Best Director, "Room" Upcoming projects: The man behind “Room” is writing, directing and producing “A Man’s World,” which tells the story of Emile Griffith, a boxer who killed another fighter in the ring in 1962.
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Tom McCarthy, Best Director, "Spotlight" Upcoming projects: McCarthy will be in high demand coming off “Spotlight” but he has never been one to juggle multiple projects at once. A few of his screenplays are in development around town at DreamWorks, Shawn Levy’s 21 Laps and Jay Roach’s Everyman Pictures.
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From Brie Larson to Michael Fassbender and Cate Blanchett to Leonardo DiCaprio, upcoming projects include ”Jason Bourne,“ ”Weightless,“ and ”The Devil in the White City“
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