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Good Morning Oscar, January 25: Who Knew?

A roundup of pre-nomination predictions, to see who got it right and who didn’t

By the time most people read this, the Oscar nominations will have been announced. But at the time I'm writing it, they're still several hours away. So here's a way to rate the pundits by seeing who made accurate nomination predictions, and who didn't.

I've given my predictions, but I'm only one of a great many who've gone on record to guess about whether it'll be "Winter's Bone" or "The Town," Michelle Williams or Hailee Steinfeld or Julianne Moore or Lesley Manville.

So here's a roundup of predictions. Most of us agree on a whole lot of stuff, so I've highlighted the areas where we differ.

John HawkesBrad Brevet, Rope of Silicon: A man after my own heart: He's got "Winter's Bone" in the Best Picture category, plus Javier Bardem and Ryan Gosling both getting into Best Actor. Also predicts Lesley Manville, John Hawkes (left) and Jacki Weaver.

Roger Ebert, rogerebert.com: He thinks "127 Hours" will miss a Best Pic nom, and doesn't actually go out on a limb with five predictions in the acting categories. But he thinks Justin Timberlake will get a Supporting Actor nod. He also says that in the Foreign-Language category, "there is no justice" if the nominees don't include "I Am Love." I assume he knows that it wasn't eligible, but it's hard to tell.

Gregory Ellwood, HitFix: Thinks Barbara Hershey will nab the "Black Swan" Supporting Actress slot, not Mila Kunis; has the "Blue Valentine" pair of Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams both squeezing into the lead races. 

Scott Feinberg, ScottFeinberg.com: Julianne Moore joins "Kids Are All Right" costar Annette Bening for Best Actress, Matt Damon bumps Jeremy Renner for Supporting Actor.

Gold Derby editors, GoldDerby.com: It's a compilation of picks from nine different editors, so there's lots of conventional wisdom and a few left-field choices, the craziest of which is Ben Scuglia's prediction of "Alice in Wonderland" for Best Picture.

Dave Karger, Entertainment Weekly: Hailee Steinfeld in the Best Actress category, and everything else more or less the conventional wisdom. He also lists 10 possible surprises, at least a few of which (noms for Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams and John Hawkes and Javier Bardem) would be really cool.

Peter Keough, Boston Phoenix: A Boston guy leaves out "The Town," bumps Tom Hooper from the Best Director category, and puts Hilary Swank in Best Actress and John Hawkes in Supporting Actor.

Moviefone: Another who thinks Hailee Steinfeld is nominated for Best Actress rather than Supporting Actress.  

Tom O'Neil, Awards Tracker: Goes out on a limb with one pick, Hilary Swank for Best Actress. He also guarantees these are 100 percent accurate, though I'm not entirely sure I believe him.

Richard Roeper (on video): Very straightforward list, very few surprises. Michelle Williams, Matt Damon, Coen Brothers.

Nathaniel Rogers, the Film Experience: "127 Hours" snubbed for Best Pic, "The Town" and "Winter's Bone" both in. Bardem in for Best Actor, Duvall out.

Sasha Stone, Awards Daily: The Coens, Bardem, Annette and  Julianne.

Kris Tapley, In Contention: One more in the Annette and Julianne camp, plus Lesley Manville in Supporting rather than lead. And he made a last-minute switch and joined me in the tiny group that thinks "Dogtooth" will follow its improbable spot on the Foreign-Language shortlist with an improbable nomination. He's also got a roundup of predictions at In Contention.

Anne Thompson, Thompson on Hollywood: "Winter's Bone" for Best Pic, Lesley Manville for Best Actress, Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor, Coen Brothers for Best Director. She even predicts the shorts categories, too, which seems nuts to me. But brave.

Vulture, New York Magazine: Ryan Gosling and Jacki Weaver in, Jeff Bridges and Amy Adams out.  And lots of nods to the wisdom of Dave Karger.