How Many Oscar Contenders Have Emerged From First Half of 2016?

AWARDS BEAT

Richard Linklater‘s “Everybody Wants Some!!” could be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Bill Murray may pick up an acting nomination for his voiceover performance in “The Jungle Book.” And Nicolas Winding Refn‘s “The Neon Demon” might earn a nomination for its costume design.

That’s could, may and might, mind you — because in the real world, none of those things is likely to happen.

If you look at the films that have been released during the first six months of 2016, you will find precious few that are apt to be competing for Oscars at the end of the year.

Also Read: Cannes Recap: Can Any of This Year's Movies Crash the Oscar Race?

While this decade has seen first-half Best Picture nominees like “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Midnight in Paris,” “The Tree of Life,” “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone,” the field is far thinner this year.

We’ve divided this survey into three sections: films released so far this year that are legitimate Best Picture contenders, films that may be in the running in other categories and, because otherwise the pickings would be slim indeed, possible contenders that haven’t yet been theatrically released but have been seen at film festivals.

BEST PICTURE
The vast majority of nominees in the Oscars’ marquee category are released in the fall. But since the Academy expanded the category in 2010, most years have found room for at least one film released in the first half of the year. This year, though, there’s precious little that has any chance of making the cut.

“Everybody Wants Some!!” drew almost unanimously positive reviews — but despite its quality, Linklater’s purposefully ramshackle comedy about the last weekend before college is probably far too low-key to register strongly with Oscar voters. (His last movie, “Boyhood,” was really his only film to catch the Academy’s eye, and that’s because of its scope and its novel 12-year production process.)

Beyond that, what is there? Virtually nothing, that’s what. Sure, we’ve seen good movies released since January — “Sing Street,” “Eye in the Sky,” “Born to Be Blue,” “The Jungle Book” — but nothing that figures to register with voters the way “Mad Max: Fury Road” did last year, or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” the year before, or “Midnight in Paris” and “The Tree of Life” in 2011.

Also Read: 'Everybody Wants Some!!' Review: Richard Linklater Scores With Another Nostalgic Rush

Like it or not, Oscar voters draw their contenders from the ranks of studio films (either major studios, indie divisions of the studios or known-quantity indie studios), and studios wait until the fall to release the movies they’re going to push for Oscars.

OTHER CATEGORIES
There’s far more to choose from if you expand the survey to films that will compete for nominations outside the Best Picture and acting races. The year’s top-grossing films to date, for instance, include five that could make the visual-effects shortlist: “Captain America: Civil War,” “Deadpool,” “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” “X-Men: Apocalypse” and the potential front-runner, “The Jungle Book.”

Another four will be in the thick of what should be an unusually brutal race for Best Animated Feature: Disney’s “Zootopia” and Pixar’s “Finding Dory” for sure, and potentially DreamWorks Animation/Fox’s well-received “Kung Fu Panda 3” and Sony’s “The Angry Birds Movie,” though that one is more of a long shot.

Also Read: 'Zootopia' Would Have Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score Except for These 2 Critics

In other categories, it’s not inconceivable that “The Neon Demon,” “Alice Through the Looking Glass” and “Hail, Caesar!” could contend for costume and production design awards, or that songs from “Sing Street” and even “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” could figure into the always-unpredictable Best Original Song race.

And in the Best Documentary Feature category, where it can help to come out early in the year — that way you avoid being lost in the deluge of screeners that voters in the Documentary Branch receive — we’ve already seen a strong contender in the political doc “Weiner,” and a complete wild card in ESPN’s five-part, seven-and-a-half-hour “O.J.: Made in America.”

That acclaimed doc was made for ESPN’s “30 for 30” series and had its TV premiere on June 11 — but prior to its TV airing, it had a quiet one-week run at theaters in Los Angeles and New York to qualify it for the Academy Awards. It’s one of the most celebrated nonfiction works of the year, and could well figure in the Oscar race if voters don’t view it as a TV film, not a theatrical doc — but that’s a very big if.

Also Read: How 'OJ: Made In America' Is Better Than Any Other OJ Simpson Retrospective (Photos)

FESTIVAL FILMS
Now we’re getting into films that might really figure into the awards race. In January, the Sundance Film Festival brought Nate Parker’s “The Birth of a Nation” and Kenneth Lonergan’s “Manchester by the Sea,” both of which drew raves, were snapped up by distributors and are awaiting awards-season releases from Fox Searchlight and Amazon/Roadside Attractions.

Four months later, the Cannes Film Festival introduced another batch of prime films, although none of them seemed to have any chance of duplicating the awards haul of last year’s Cannes hit “Mad Max.”

The Palme d’Or winner, Ken Loach‘s “I, Daniel Blake” is a resolutely small, understated character study whose best chance (a remote one at that) probably lies with lead actors Dave Johns and Hayley Squires, while Andrea Arnold‘s raucous road trip “American Honey” wowed many critics but may well be too long, too aimless and too besotted with messy excess to seduce many Oscar voters.

Jeff Nichols‘ “Loving,” on the other hand, is a movie that looks like Oscar bait on paper (a drama about an interracial couple in the South in the 1960s who went to court for the right to live together) but plays far more subtly than that. Lead actress Ruth Negga will certainly be in the conversation all awards season and may well end up on a few stages before she’s through, but the fate of the movie itself is less certain.

Jim Jarmusch‘s “Paterson,” and its star Adam Driver, deserve awards attention as well, though Jarmusch’s intimate character study is so quiet and subtle that it may well get lost in the shuffle. (But one can dream.)

Also Read: 'Paterson' Cannes Review: Jim Jarmusch Delivers an Ode to Small Pleasures

As usual, though, Cannes will probably end up supplying at least half a dozen entries in the Oscar foreign-language race — and if Germany opts to submit Maren Ade’s touching and very funny “Toni Erdmann,” the biggest critical hit at Cannes, it’ll almost certainly have a shortlisted film, and probably a nominee, on its hands.

Other foreign-language films that may well end up contending for the Oscar include Brazil’s “Aquarius,” South Korea’s “The Handmaiden,” Spain’s “Julieta” (though the Spanish selection committee often bypasses the work of its director, Pedro Almodovar), the Philippines’ “Ma’ Rosa,” Iran’s “The Salesman” (from Asghar Farhadi, who directed the country’s only winner, “A Separation”), Belgium’s “The Unknown Girl,” Romania’s “Sieranevada” or “Graduation,” Chile’s “Neruda,” Israel’s “One Week and a Day” and director Paul Verhoeven‘s “Elle,” if a single country can make a legitimate claim for a movie in French by a Dutch director with French, German and Belgian financing.

But this may be the only category with any chance of being populated with many films we’ve already seen. In most of the major categories, the Oscar race has barely begun.

If you want to get a look at some real competitors, see you in September.

51 Summer Movies on Our Radar: From 'Captain America: Civil War' to 'Sausage Party' (Photos)

"Captain America: Civil War" (May 6)

The Avengers are back in the third standalone film for "Captain America," in which political pressure to register superheroes with the government divides the team.
Marvel
"Pele: Birth of a Legend" (May 6)

Starring Kevin de Paula, Vincent D'Onofrio, Rodrigo Santoro and Diego Boneta, "Pele" tells the story of Brazil's most celebrated soccer player.
Getty Images
"Elstree 1976" (May 6)

The documentary features actors and extras from the "Star Wars" franchise as they remember their times on set and talk about how the making of the films affected their lives. Derek Lyons, Anthony Forrest and Laurie Goode all make appearances.
"A Bigger Splash" (May 13)

In this film starring Dakota Johnson, Ralph Fiennes, Tilda Swinton and Matthias Schoenaerts, a famous rock star and filmmaker go on vacation only to have it disrupted by an old friend and his daughter.
StudioCanal
"Money Monster" (May 13)

Julia Roberts and George Clooney reunite once again in this story about a business network TV host and his producer who face a tough situation when an armed investor seizes their studio.
Tristar
"The Lobster" (May 13)

Single denizens of The City in this film's dystopian future must find a romantic partner within 45 days, or they're transformed into beasts and sent into the Woods. Colin Farrell and Rachel Weisz star.
A24
"Dheepan" (May 13)

After winning the Palme d'Or at the 2015 Cannes Film Festival, the drama will be released in the U.S. by IFC/Sundance Selects. It deals with a former soldier, a young woman and a child who pose as a family to escape the civil war in Sri Lanka.
IFC Films
"Search Party" (May 13)

"Silicon Valley" stars T.J. Miller and Thomas Middleditch reteam alongside Adam Pally in this comedy about two friends who go on a mission to reunite their friend with the woman he was supposed to marry.
Focus World
"Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising" (May 20)

Seth Rogen, Zac Efron and Rose Byrne are back -- but this time around, the former enemies team up against a sorority that's wreaking even more havoc than Efron's frat from the original film. Chloe Grace Moretz and Selena Gomez join the cast.
Universal
"The Angry Birds Movie" (May 20)

After the huge success of the mobile game, the angry birds are coming to the big screen with voiceovers by Peter Dinklage, Kate McKinnon, Jason Sudeikis, Bill Hader, Keegan-Michael Key, Josh Gad, Maya Rudolph and more.
Sony/Columbia
"The Nice Guys" (May 20)

Directed by Shane Black, this period detective film starring Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling will hit theaters in May. In the movie, the two must work together to find a missing girl and solve the seemingly unrelated death of a porn star.
Warner Bros.
"Weiner" (May 20)

The documentary that disgraced New York Congressman Anthony Weiner now regrets granting access, follows his 2013 mayoral bid which ended in a now infamous sexting scandal.
IFC Films/Sundance Selects
"Holy Hell" (May 20)

Twenty years in the making, this documentary goes inside The Buddha Field, a cult formed in the 1980s in West Hollywood, California. Filmmaker Will Allen is a former member of the sect who uses archival footage to tell the story of its charismatic leader, who forced members to perform sex acts, get abortions and undergo plastic surgery, often using hypnotherapy.
FilmRise
"Alice Through the Looking Glass" (May 27)

Starring Mia Wasikowska, Johnny Depp, Anne Hathaway, Helena Bonham Carter, Sacha Baron Cohen and Rhys Ifans, the "Alice in Wonderland" sequel is tracking for a $74 million opening weekend when it debuts against "X-Men: Apocalypse."
Disney
"The Do-Over" (May 27)

Adam Sandler signed a four-picture production with Netflix, and "The Do-Over," costarring David Spade, is his second entry, following last year's "Ridiculous Six." In the film, the two decide to fake their own deaths in order to start over with new identities.
Netflix
"X-Men: Apocalypse" (May 27)

The eighth movie in the "X-Men" franchise adds newcomers Sophie Turner, Oscar Isaac, Olivia Munn, Alexandra Shipp, Kodi Smit-McPhee and Tye Sheridan to the regular cast. In "Apocalypse," the X-Men must fight the world's first mutant.
Twentieth Century Fox
"Me Before You" (June 3)

Emilia Clarke and Sam Claflin star in the on-screen adaptation of Jojo Moyes' bestselling novel, in which a small town girl becomes the caretaker of a disabled man. Improbably, they fall in love.
Warner Bros.
"The Bye Bye Man" (June 3)

The horror film was most recently moved from October, and follows three college students who move into a house off campus to discover a supernatural entity called the Bye Bye Man. They must save each other while keeping the entity’s existence a secret from others. It cleared the date for Ben Affleck‘s “The Accountant.”
STX Entertainment
"The Conjuring 2" (June 10)

The sequel to 2013's "The Conjuring" welcomes back
Vera Farmiga and
Patrick Wilson as they try to help a single mother whose house is plagued by demons.
Warner Bros.
"Warcraft" (June 10)

Based on the popular video game, the fantasy film directed by Duncan Jones stars Paula Patton, Dominic Cooper, Ben Schnetzer and Clancy Brown, and chronicles the first interactions between humans and orcs.
Universal
"Now You See Me 2" (June 10)

Another sequel in a summer that's full of them, "Now You See Me 2" stars Jesse Eisenberg, Lizzy Caplan, Daniel Radcliffe, Mark Ruffalo, Morgan Freeman, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco and Sanaa Lathan, as the Four Horsemen reunite to take down a tech mogul.
Lionsgate
"Central Intelligence" (June 17)

The upcoming action comedy stars Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson as the unlikely duo teams up for a "top-secret"case.
Warner Bros.
"Finding Dory" (June 17)

The long-awaited sequel to 2003's "Finding Nemo" centers on his blue friend, Dory (Ellen DeGeneres), who goes on a mission to find her long-lost loved ones.
Disney
"Swiss Army Man" (June 17)

Known as the "farting corpse" movie, it stars Paul Dano and Daniel Radcliffe. The film was sold to A24 after premiering at Sundance Film Festival -- before a number of walkouts.
A24
"Free State of Jones" (June 24)

Originally slated for a May 13 release, "Free State of Jones" stars Matthew McConaughey, Keri Russell and Gugu Mbatha-Raw in a film set during the Civil War about a poor farmer from Mississippi who leads a rebel group.
STX Entertainment
"Independence Day: Resurgence" (June 24)

It's been two decades since the first "Independence Day" film, long enough for reinforcements called in by its vanquished alien invaders to mount an even bigger threat. Liam Hemsworth, Maiki Monroe, William Fichtner, Jeff Goldblum and Bill Pullman star.
Fox
"The Shallows" (June 24)

A young surfer (Blake Lively) finds herself stranded on a small rock off shore after she's attacked by a great white shark in this horror movie. She'll spend the majority of it failing to return to land.
Sony/Columbia
"The BFG" (July 1)

The on-screen adaptation of Roald Dahl's famous novel of the same name is finally hitting the big screen, with Oscar-winner Mark Rylance starring as the big friendly giant. Bill Hader, Rebecca Hall and Ruby Barnhill also star.
Disney
"The Legend of Tarzan" (July 1)

We've all seen the stills of Alexander Skarsgard shirtless for this role, so naturally, we're excited to see him play Tarzan alongside Margot Robbie's Jane.
Warner Bros.
"The Purge: Election Year" (July 1)

"The Purge" films have performed consistently well at the box office despite their low budgets. This third installment in the franchise focuses on a presidential contender who vows to eliminate the annual Purge.
Universal
"Captain Fantastic" (July 8)

Starring Viggo Mortensen, Frank Langella and Kathryn Hahn, this Sundance selection chronicles the reintegration into the real world of a man who's raised his kids in isolation for a decade.
Bleecker Street
"Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates" (July 8)

Anna Kendrick, Zac Efron, Aubrey Plaza and Adam DeVine star in this comedy about two brothers who place an online ad to find wedding dates -- but before they know it, the ad goes viral.

Fox
"The Secret Life of Pets" (July 8)

Illumination Entertainment is releasing another animated comedy, which features the voices of Louis C.K., Eric Stonestreet, Kevin Hart, Steve Coogan, Ellie Kemper, Lake Bell and Hannibal Buress. The film is about what pets do as soon as their owners leave, but a criminal conspiracy soon threatens their happy lives.
Universal
"Ghostbusters" (July 15)

This remake of the 1984 classic has been stirring up controversy for multiple reasons since it was announced. Sony’s reboot is directed by Paul Feig and stars Melissa McCarthy, Kristen Wiig, Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones as the new all-girl Ghostbusters.
Sony
"The Infiltrator" (July 15)

Bryan Cranston plays Robert Mazur, a DEA agent who goes undercover to expose the money-laundering schemes of the world’s top drug lords. Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan also star.
Broad Green Pictures
"Lights Out" (July 22)

A mother tries to save her children from a malicious force of the darkness; the same that haunted her when she was a little girl. Teresa Palmer and Gabriel Bateman star.
Warner Bros.
"Absolutely Fabulous" (July 22)

“Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie” is officially heading to the big screen, based on the cult BBC series that first aired from 1992 to 1995. Starring Jennifer Saunders, Joanna Lumley, Julia Sawalha, June Whitfield and Jane Horrocks, “AbFab” followed Edina Monsoon (Saunders), a heavy-drinking, drug-abusing PR agent who spent her time chasing bizarre fads in a desperate attempt to stay young and “hip.”
Fox Searchlight
"Star Trek Beyond" (July 22)

The voyagers of the Starship Enterprise Redux are back, and this time they face a new threat on a planet the Federation has never seen before. Idris Elba joins the returning ensemble cast led by Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto.
Paramount
"Bad Moms" (July 29)

Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Christina Applegate and Jada Pinkett Smith star in this comedy about three over-stressed moms joining forces on a quest for freedom and self-indulgence.
STX Entertainment
"Jason Bourne" (July 29)

The spy thriller is a sequel to 2012’s “Bourne Legacy” and welcomes back Matt Damon in the titular role. Julia Stiles, Alicia Vikander, Vincent Cassel and Tommy Lee Jones also star. The official title of the film was announced during Super Bowl 50.
Universal
"Indignation" (July 29)

James Schamus is making his directorial feature film debut with "Indignation," a drama set in 1951 in which a Jewish student struggles with sexual repression at a small Ohio college.
Roadside/Summit
"The Founder" (August 5)

It’s “The Social Network” meets Quarter-Pounders as Michael Keaton plays Ray Kroc, the man who took over McDonald’s and made it a household name. Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, and John Carroll Lynch also star.
Weinstein Company
"Suicide Squad" (August 5)

One of the most anticipated films of the year pulls together our favorite DC villains like the Joker, Harley Quinn, Deadshot and Boomerang to form a team of supervillains forced to do the government's bidding. The David Ayer-directed film stars Viola Davis, Will Smith, Margot Robbie, Jai Courtney, Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje and Jared Leto.
David Ayers Twitter/Warner Bros.
"Ben-Hur" (August 12)

Lew Wallace’s classic novel is getting another feature film adaptation, 57 years after William Wyler’s Oscar-winning epic. Jack Huston, Morgan Freeman and Toby Kebbell star.
Paramount
"Pete's Dragon" (August 12)

Disney remade the 1977 live action film of the same name, casting Bryce Dallas Howard, Robert Redford, Wes Bentley, and Oakes Fegley as Pete. The film is about an orphaned boy and his best friend, who just happens to be a dragon.
Disney
"Sausage Party" (August 12)

“Sausage Party” stars Seth Rogen, Kristen Wiig, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride and Paul Rudd, and centers on grocery store food items that want to "go home" with buyers but soon discover the truth behind their existence.
Sony/Columbia
"The Hollars" (August 12)

A struggling graphic novelist returns home, where an ailing mother, pregnant girlfriend, clingy ex, and chaotic family problems await. John Krasinski, Anna Kendrick, Sharlto Copley, and Mary Elizabeth Winstead star.
Sony Pictures Classics
"War Dogs" (August 19)

At the height of the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, two partying young entrepreneurs land an arms deal with the government worth hundreds of millions. Jonah Hill and Miles Teller star.
Warner Bros.
"Southside with You" (August 19)

A smash hit at this year’s Sundance, Richard Tanne’s romantic dramedy looks at the first date between Barack and Michelle Obama. Patrick Sawyers and Tika Sumpter star.
Roadside/Miramax
"Don't Breathe" (August 26)

Three teen thieves who steal from the rich decide to go for one last heist at the house of a wealthy, blind war veteran. Just one problem: he can hear them breathing, and he’s armed and dangerous. Dylan Minnette, Jane Levy, Daniel Zovatto and Stephen Lang star.
Sony/TriStar
"Hands of Stone" (August 26)

Edgar Ramirez will lace up the gloves to play Roberto Duran, the legendary Panamanian boxer who KO’d Sugar Ray Leonard and became champion in four weight classes. Robert De Niro and Usher also star.
The Weinstein Company