The Scoggins Report is The Wrap's bi-weekly analysis of the feature film development business. You can download the PDF of this week's edition here, and details on each of the people, companies and projects in the article are available to subscribers of ItsontheGrid.com, a division of TheWrap. Follow the site's Twitter feed here, and the Facebook page is here.
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Don’t be fooled by the below single digit sales numbers for April and May; 2011’s year-to-date sales numbers are a bit ahead of 2010's, which is actually a big improvement year-over-year on a percentage basis since there’s been so much less material in the marketplace than usual (143 specs vs 180 in 2010 vs 252 in 2009).
Here’s the big news since the last scorecard:
• Four studio buyers got on the board for the first time in the past month, including CBS Films, with its first purchase since September 2009; Dimension, with its first since April 2009; New Line, with its first since we started keeping track in 2009; and Relativity, with its first since December last year.
• Columbia remains in the lead among buyers for 2011 (with 5), but Warner Bros. is now running a close second (with 4). Warner’s May purchase marks its 12th spec purchase in the past 12 months, which is far and away the strongest spec buying pattern we’ve seen since the 2007 WGA strike.
• Paramount will be on next month’s scorecard for the first time (they bought family comedy The Hauntrepreneur for Platinum Dunes this week); if Lionsgate buys a spec in the next few weeks, we’ll have every major buyer represented on the grid for the first time since 2009.
We have interesting things to point out about the below genre and agency numbers, too, but we’ve inserted them below in the interest of keeping this tight. Let's get to the numbers:
We hesitate to use the word “trend” in these reports since there are so many variables at play, but genre specs are definitely in vogue so far this year. Horror specs have sold strongly for the first time since we started tracking (not a single horror spec sold in 2009 or 2010); a Western made the list, too, for the first time since we started tracking; and sci-fi sales are way up compared to the same time period last year (3 vs 1).
Meanwhile, thriller sales are up 40% year-over-year, comedies are even, and action and/or adventure sales are down 50%.
Each of the following production companies has been attached to at least one spec sale so far this year. Companies in bold are new since the last scorecard.
1 – Includes a script not counted toward the company's 2011 efficiency rating because it originally went out prior to 2011.
The big agencies are running neck and neck, though WME pulled way ahead this week with two sales not included on this Report's grids: “The Hauntrepreneur,” which we mentioned in the intro, and "Tipping Point," which Relativity bought for Temple Hill. That said, it’s still a six horse race; Gersh, ICM and Paradigm remain very close behind the leaders.
It’s worth noting that Paradigm has completely transformed its spec business in the past two years: The agency has doubled its 2010 numbers already, which were up 100 percent over 2009 to begin with. An impressive feat, even if its numbers stall for the rest of the year.
1 – Includes a script not counted toward the company's efficiency rating because it went out prior to 2011.
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