Watch Out, Oscar: Awards Season Gets Jump Start With Fall Film Festivals
Venice, Telluride and Toronto festivals should help define what is currently a wide-open Oscar race
Steve Pond | September 1, 2015 @ 3:27 PM
Last Updated: September 20, 2015 @ 4:46 PM
AWARDS BEAT
"The Danish Girl," "Trumbo" and "Black Mass"; photos courtesy of TIFF
Most years, awards watchers can take it for granted that however confused the awards landscape may appear in late August, things will be much clearer by mid September.
Year after year, the one-two-three punch of the Venice International Film Festival, the Telluride Film Festival and the Toronto International Film Festival introduce the majority of the films that will end up competing for the Academy Awards and other film honors. Last year’s winner, “Birdman,” premiered in Venice and also played Telluride; it was the first winner in a decade not to appear in Toronto, but it too did the festival dance.
A bevy of contenders will screen along the canals in Venice beginning on Wednesday, and then in the mountains of Colorado beginning on Friday, and then in downtown Toronto beginning on Sept. 10.
And by the time TIFF comes to a close on Sept. 20, we’ll have seen “The Danish Girl,” “Spotlight,” “Black Mass,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Steve Jobs,” “Trumbo,” “I Saw the Light,” “Freeheld,” “The Martian,” “The Program” and other films that could cast a long shadow over awards season.
But will the Best Picture winner come from that group? It might, but the early-September festivals have been facing some strong competition in recent years from the New York Film Festival, which has aggressively pursued world premieres for awards contenders like “The Social Network,” “Lincoln” and, this year, Robert Zemeckis‘ “The Walk.”
And this year is so backloaded as to make September prognostications inherently risky. For instance, there are four films, all potential awards heavyweights from Oscar-nominated directors (and, admittedly, all potential awards flops as well), that are currently slated to be released on Christmas Day: Alejandro G. Inarritu’s “The Revenant,” Quentin Tarantino‘s “The Hateful Eight,” David O. Russell‘s “Joy” and Oliver Stone‘s “Snowden.”
So a large number of question marks will still hang over awards season after Toronto, and almost as many even after the New York Film Festival ends in early October. Still, we’ll likely know the identities of a good number of contenders after these three festivals — which will be particularly valuable this year, since we’re going into September with the Best Picture race almost a blank slate.
That’s unusual. Most years, the first nine months of the year will have seen the release of one or two films that end up with Best Picture nominations. Last year it was “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” and in the years before that it was “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Midnight in Paris,” “The Tree of Life,” “The Help” and more.
But this year, if you just go by what’s had a theatrical run in theaters, I count one film with any realistic chance of landing a Best Picture nomination – and that film, Pixar’s “Inside Out,” is a long shot because it’s hard for an animated film to break into the top category. Another long-shot contender, “Straight Outta Compton,” is even more unlikely since the Academy has never shown any inclination to honor hip-hop movies outside the song category. (Just ask newly-named Honorary Oscar winner Spike Lee.)
If you extend the search to films that have played previous festivals, though, you can add one serious player to the list: Todd Haynes‘ exquisite “Carol,” which premiered at Cannes, will certainly be a major contender in the acting categories and will likely figure in the Best Picture race as well.
But to fill out a prognosticator’s ballot any further than that, we’ll need Venice, Telluride and Toronto. The first of those festivals, which opens on Wednesday, will give us “The Danish Girl,” which seems tailor-made for Oscar with director Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”), reigning Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne and the hot-button topic of transgenderism; “Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy’s film about the Boston Globe’s investigation into sexual abuse in the Catholic Church, which mixes “All the President’s Men” with another hot-button theme; “Black Mass,” a Scott Cooper drama with Johnny Depp as fugitive mobster Whitey Bulger; and “Beasts of No Nation,” a film about child soldiers in Africa from Cary Fukanaga, best known for directing the season of “True Detective” that everybody loved.
Venice opens with Baltasar Kormakur‘s “Everest,” the story of an ill-fated 1996 attempt to climb the world’s highest mountain that could be the rare action-based movie to attract awards voters. The Italian festival also includes Charlie Kaufman‘s animated “Anomalisa,” the first film in seven years from the daring screenwriter who was nominated for Oscars for “Adaptation” and “Being John Malkovich” and won for “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.”
Telluride kicks off on Friday, and it won’t officially unveil its schedule until shortly before screenings begin. But industry chatter and a close reading of the Toronto schedule (where films slated to play the Colorado festival are billed as Canadian premieres rather than world or North American premieres) will tell you that “The Danish Girl,” “Spotlight,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “Black Mass” and “Anomalisa” will almost certainly screen in Telluride first.
So will Lenny Abrahamson’s “Room,” with Brie Larson, and while the high-profile awards contenders rumored to be going to Telluride but not Toronto include Danny Boyle‘s “Steve Jobs,” with Michael Fassbender playing the Apple co-creator from a script by Aaron Sorkin, and “Suffragette,” with Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep in a story of the early days of the women’s movement in Great Britain.
Telluride only last for three days, ending on Labor Day – and three days later, Toronto will kick into high gear for 11 days and more than 300 features and short films. By far the biggest of the festivals, and the only one with an active sales and acquisitions market, it will present most of the marquee films that have screened in Venice and Telluride, and add a number of premieres of its own.
Those include “Trumbo,” in which director Jay Roach turns from comedies and HBO political movies to tell the story of blacklisted writer Dalton Trumbo, played by Bryan Cranston (it’s about show business, which voters love); “Freeheld,” with Julianne Moore and Ellen Page as a real-life lesbian couple fighting for partnership benefits (another real hot-button topic in the wake of the recent Supreme Court decision); “I Saw the Light,” with British actor Tom Hiddleston as country music icon Hank Williams (voters love biopics); Roland Emmerich‘s “Stonewall,” about the late-’60s riots that helped launch the gay-rights movement in New York (see: “Freeheld”); Stephen Frears‘ “The Program,” with Ben Foster as Lance Armstrong (see: “I See the Light”); “Truth,” starring Robert Redford as Dan Rather and Cate Blanchett as his producer, Mary Mapes, in the story of Rather’s disputed reporting on George W. Bush’s Vietnam War record (shades of the Oscar-nominated “The Insider”?); Ridley Scott‘s “The Martian,” with Matt Damon and Jessica Chastain (it seems like a popcorn movie rather than an awards movie, but so did Scott’s Best Picture winner “Gladiator”); and Michael Moore‘s first documentary in six years, “Where to Invade Next” (if any documentarian can muscle his way into the Best Picture race, it’s probably Moore).
That list only scratches the surface, but all of those films have the potential to walk away from Toronto as legitimate awards contenders — just as some of them could well crash and burn near the Venice canals, or in the Rocky Mountains, or on the Canadian streets. (Just ask Gus Van Sant, whose “Sea of Trees” went into Cannes with high hopes and emerged dead in the water.)
But crucially, the first wave of fall festivals won’t be showcasing such high-profile films as Steven Spielberg‘s “Bridge of Spies,” or Angelina Jolie‘s “By the Sea,” or Ron Howard‘s “In the Heart of the Sea,” or Ryan Coogler‘s “Rocky” reboot “Creed,” or Peter Landesman‘s “Concussion” or many more.
So check back in mid September. We’ll know a lot more at that point, but we won’t know it all.
51 Fall Movies on Our Radar: From 'Black Mass' to 'The Revenant' (Photos)
"Pawn Sacrifice" - Sept. 16 The movie follows chess champion Bobby Fischer (Tobey Maguire) who prepares for his game against Russian Boris Spassky (Liev Schreiber).
Bleecker Street
"Black Mass" - Sept. 18 Starring Johnny Depp, Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Dakota Johnson and Corey Stoll, the film follows the true story of Whitey Bulger, one of the most notorious criminals in U.S. history.
Warner Bros.
"Everest" - Sept. 18 Mountain climbers on Mt. Everest are stuck in a severe, dangerous snowstorm in this drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Keira Knightley and Robin Wright.
Universal
"Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials" - Sept. 18 After escaping the Maze, the group now needs to face challenges on the open road with new obstacles.
Fox
"Sicario" - Sept. 18 An FBI agent is enlisted by an elected government task force to help in the war against drugs at the border between the U.S. and Mexico. The film stars Emily Blunt, Jon Bernthal, Josh Brolin and Benicio del Toro.
Lionsgate
"99 Homes" - Sept. 25 Andrew Garfield stars as a young father who struggles to get back his home after a recession-induced eviction.
Broad Green Pictures
"Stonewall" - Sept. 25 Jeremy Irvine stars as a young man who arrives in New York City in the late 1960s in time to experience first-hand the riots at the Stonewall Inn that kicked off the modern gay-rights movement. The film also stars Jonathan Rhys Meyers, Ron Perlman and Jonny Beauchamp.
Roadside Attraction
"The Intern" - Sept. 25 Anne Hathaway, Robert De Niro and Nat Wolff star in this touching comedy about a 70-year-old man interning at a fashion company.
Warner Bros.
"The Walk" - Sept. 30 Robert Zemeckis' 3D film follows the true story of French high-wire artist Philippe Petit (Joseph Gordon-Levitt), who attempted to walk across the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in 1974.
Sony/Tristar
"Freeheld" - Oct. 2 In another fact-based drama set before the nationwide ruling for same-sex marriage, New Jersey cop Laurel Hester (Julianne Moore) and her domestic partner Stacie Andree (Ellen Page) struggle to secure Hester's pension benefits when she is diagnosed with terminal cancer. The movie also stars Steve Carell, Josh Charles and Michael Shannon.
Lionsgate
"The Martian" - Oct. 2 Starring Matt Damon, Kate Mara, Kristin Wiig, Jessica Chastain and Michael Pena, the sci-fi drama is about an astronaut presumed dead after a storm on Mars. But he is alive, and tries to find a way to send a signal to Earth.
20th Century Fox
"He Named Me Malala" - Oct. 2 A documentary that chronicles the events leading up to the Talibans' attack on young Pakistani girl, Malala Yousafzai, for speaking out on girls' education.
Fox Searchlight
"Pan" - Oct. 9 In the latest remake of "Peter Pan," an orphan (Levi Miller) goes to Neverland to become the hero named Peter Pan. Hugh Jackman, Cara Delevingne, Rooney Mara, Amanda Seyfried, Garrett Hedlund also star.
Warner Bros.
"Steve Jobs" - Oct. 9 Starring Michael Fassbender, Kate Winslet and Seth Rogen, the biopic follows the true life story of Apple pioneer Steve Jobs.
Universal
"Beasts of No Nation" - Oct. 16 Idris Elba headlines a drama about the experiences of child soldier Agu fighting a civil war in an unnamed west African country.
Netflix
"Bridge of Spies" - Oct. 16 During the Cold War, a U.S. lawyer (Tom Hanks) is recruited by the CIA to rescue a pilot captured in the Soviet Union.
Walt Disney Studios
"Crimson Peak" - Oct. 16 Writer-director Guillermo del Toro's latest feature has a Gothic setup: Following a family tragedy, an author (Mia Wasikowska) is swept away to a creepy house to be with her husband (Tom Hiddleston).
Universal
"Goosebumps" - Oct. 16 A kid teams up with the niece of R.L. Stine, the children's horror author, after demons are set free in Maryland.
Sony/Columbia
"Room" - Oct. 16 Brie Larson plays a mother who is locked in a room with her 5-year-old son until they escape and are forced to face the realities of the world.
A24
"Truth" - Oct. 16 The movie offers a closer look at news anchor Dan Rather (Robert Redford) in his final days at CBS News, after broadcasting a damaging story about President George W. Bush.
Sony Pictures Classics
"Burnt" - Oct. 23 Adam Jones (Bradley Cooper) destroyed his career as chef with drugs and divalike behavior. He cleans himself up and goes to London to spearhead a restaurant that can gain three Michelin stars.
Weinstein Company
"Rock the Kasbah" - Oct. 23 A music manager (Bill Murray) discovers a teenager with a powerful voice while on a music tour through Afghanistan, and takes her to Kabul to compete on the popular TV show "Afghan Star." The film also stars Bruce Willis, Zooey Deschanel, Kate Hudson, Dannie McBridge and Taylor Kinney.
Universal
"Suffragette" - Oct. 23 The film, whose cast includes Starring Meryl Streep, Carey Mulligan and Helena Bonham Carter, follows the early feminist movement in the U.K. as women struggled to earn the right to vote.
Focus
"Our Brand Is Crisis" - Oct. 30
Like "Freeheld," this film is based on a documentary. In this one, Sandra Bullock and Billy Bob Thornton play dueling American political campaign strategists hired by rivals in Bolivia's presidential election.
Warner Bros.
"Jem and the Holograms" - Oct. 23 A small-town girl (Audrey Peeples) becomes a global superstar, and embarks on a journey with her three sisters to discover that some talents are too good to be hidden.
Universal
"Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse" - Oct. 30 Three scouts have to save the world from a zombie outbreak on the eve of their last camp-out.
Paramount
"Brooklyn" - Nov. 6 Saoirse Ronan stars in a drama set in the 1950s Ireland and New York, as her character Ellis Lacey is torn between two men and two countries.
Fox Searchlight
"Spectre" - Nov. 6 In Daniel Craig's fourth movie as James Bond, a cryptic message sends 007 to uncover a sinister organization. Ralph Fiennes' M tries to keep the secret service alive, while Bond attempts to reveal the truth behind Spectre.
MGM
"Spotlight" - Nov. 6 Starring Rachel McAdams, Liev Schreiber, Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo, this drama tells the true story of how the Boston Globe uncovered a scandal of child molestation within the local Catholic archdiocese.
Open Road
"Trumbo" - Nov. 6 Bryan Cranston portrays successful Hollywood screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, who's accused of being a Communist in the 1940s and blacklisted by the film industry. Elle Fanning, Helen Mirren and Diane Lane also star.
Bleecker Street Media
"The Peanuts Movie" - Nov. 6 Snoopy goes on a mission to pursue his arch-nemesis, the Red Baron, while best friend Charlie Brown starts his own quest back home.
Fox
"Love the Coopers" - Nov. 13 Four generations of the Cooper family come together for a gathering, at which they discover new family bonds and the spirit of holidays. Olivia Wilde, Amanda Seyfried, Marisa Tomei, Ed Helms, Diane Keaton, Anthony Mackie and John Goodman are among those starring in the film.
"By the Sea" - Nov. 13 Angelina Jolie Pitt wrote, directed, and stars in this film with husband Brad Pitt about a couple who travel to a tranquil and picturesque seaside resort in 1970s France while their marriage is in apparent crisis.
Universal
"The 33" - Nov. 13 Patricia Riggen's film is based on the 2010 collapse of a Chilean gold and copper mine -- in which 33 miners were trapped for 69 days. The film stars Antonio Banderas, Cote de Pablo, Rodrigo Santoro, Gabriel Byrne and James Brolin.
Warner Bros.
"Carol" - Nov. 20 A department store clerk (Rooney Mara) falls for an older, married woman (Cate Blanchett) in Todd Haynes' romantic drama set in 1950s New York.
Weinstein Company
"Secret in Their Eyes" - Nov. 20 Julia Roberts, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Nicole Kidman star in a drama about an FBI agent (Roberts) who embarks on a long investigation for her daughter's killer.
STX Entertainment
"The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2" - Nov. 20 In the fifth and final movie of the franchise, Katniss Everdeen (Jennifer Lawrence) and her comrades in District 13 embark a full-on revolution against the Capitol.
Lionsgate
"Creed" - Nov. 25 Sylvester Stallone returns as Rocky Balboa, this time serving as trainer and mentor to Adonis Creed (Michael B. Jordan), the son of former enemy Apollo Creed.
Warner Bros.
"The Good Dinosaur" - Nov. 25 Pixar's movie about the epic journey into the world of dinosaurs features an Apatosaurus as he makes an unlikely friend: a human boy.
Walt Disney Pictures
"Victor Frankenstein" - Nov. 25 In this retelling of Mary Shelley's classic, Daniel Radcliffe's Igor takes center stage as we learn about his dark origins and how he became the assistant of scientist Victor Frankenstein (James McAvoy).
Fox
"The Danish Girl" - Nov. 27 Eddie Redmayne slips into the role of transgender pioneer Lili Elbe, who had what is considered the first successful gender reassignment surgery. Alicia Vikander and Amber Heard costar.
Focus
"I Saw the Light" - Nov. 27 The film, which chronicles the life and tragic death of Country singer Hank Williams, stars Tom Hiddleston, Elizabeth Olsen and Bradley Whitford.
Sony Pictures Classics
"In the Heart of the Sea" - Dec. 11 In Ron Howard's film, a 19th-century whaling ship is preyed upon by a sperm whale, which strands the crew at sea for 90 days. The film stars Chris Hemsworth, Tom Holland, Cillian Murphy and Benjamin Walker.
Warner Bros.
"Sisters" - Dec. 18 Amy Poehler and Tina Fey play two sisters who throw one last party before their parents sell the house where they grew up.
Universal
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens" - Dec. 18 The continuation of the "Star Wars" saga, set 30 years after "Return of the Jedi," stars Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fischer, Adam Driver, John Boyega and Daisy Ridley.
Disney
"Concussion" - Dec. 25 Will Smith stars as Dr. Bennet Omalu, the neuropathologist who made the discovery of CTE, the football-related brain trauma. The film also features Alec Baldwin, Stephen Moyer and Luke Wilson.
Sony/Columbia
"Joy" - Dec. 25 Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper step in front of the camera again in "Joy," a film about a suburban mom who launches a domestic goods empire. Robert De Niro and Dascha Polanco costar.
Fox
"Snowden" - Dec. 25 Director Oliver Stone's account of the true story of Edward Snowden (Joseph Gordon-Levitt), who fled the country after notoriously leaking thousands of classified government documents.
Open Road
"The Hateful Eight" - Dec. 25 A bounty hunter (Kurt Russell) gets caught in a blizzard in 19th-century Wyoming and finds shelter with some very suspicious strangers. Quentin Tarantino's Western also stars Samuel L. Jackson, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Bruce Dern and Walton Goggins.
Weinstein Company
"The Revenant" - Dec. 25 Leonardo DiCaprio stars as Hugh Glass, a trapper on the 19th-century American frontier seeking revenge on the people who left him for dead after a bear mauling. Tom Hardy, Will Poulter and Domhnall Gleeson also star.
Fox
"Point Break" - Dec. 25 In an updated reboot of the 1991 Keanu Reeves action classic, a young FBI agent (Luke Bracey) goes undercover to infiltrate a team of extreme-sports athletes he thinks are masterminding corporate heists.
Warner Bros.
1 of 51
TheWrap Fall Movie Preview 2015: “Everest,” “Spectre,” “Sisters” also among season’s big releases
"Pawn Sacrifice" - Sept. 16 The movie follows chess champion Bobby Fischer (Tobey Maguire) who prepares for his game against Russian Boris Spassky (Liev Schreiber).