The long-awaited opening weekend of “Avatar: The Way of Water” didn’t post jaw-dropping numbers, especially in North America, but the megabudget James Cameron sequel did well with a $134 million domestic and $441 million global launch. But the question still remains whether it can match or exceed the total box office of 2022’s top grossing film, Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Getting even close to the $2.74 billion original run of the first “Avatar” is almost certainly out of the question now, as COVID outbreaks in China have stifled hopes for a potentially record-setting run that “The Way of Water” would need to make money in a modern box office with much shorter theatrical windows than in 2009. But reaching the $1.48 billion of “Maverick” is still an achievable goal.
That will be crucial since the production and marketing costs for the film came in an eye-popping $600 million, and Cameron himself indicated in a GQ interview that the film would need to gross $2 billion in worldwide ticket sales reach to turn a profit on its theatrical release.
Even to get to $1.5 billion, “Avatar 2” will need to exhibit the same kind of astounding legs over the winter that “Maverick” did last summer, and domestically there are signs that it might be able to do that. Cameron’s film has won over opening weekend crowds with a 94% audience Rotten Tomatoes score, an A on CinemaScore and a 5/5 on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak with 82% of those polled saying they would “definitely recommend” the film.
Those audience results are only slightly below what “Maverick” got, with a 99% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, 84% “definite recommend” on PostTrak and A+ on CinemaScore as it earned a Memorial Day weekend record $126.7 million three-day opening. The following weekend, “Maverick” fell just 29% for a $90 million second frame total, the lowest second weekend drop for any film with a $100 million-plus opening.
The second weekend for “Avatar: The Way of Water” won’t be an exact comparison to “Maverick,” as Saturday will be Christmas Eve, historically a slow day for moviegoing that’s made up by strong turnout on Christmas Day and Dec. 26. But if the four-day Christmas weekend total for “Avatar 2” is $85 million or higher, that will be a very strong sign of good legs. Keep an eye on the film’s domestic total after Dec. 26, as it will need to be above $300 million to stay on pace with “Maverick,” which grossed $308 million in its first 11 days. (The winter holiday season also typically sees an uptick in weekday ticket sales.)
Internationally, Disney/20th Century estimates that “Avatar: The Way of Water” is 82% ahead of “Maverick” and 24% behind “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in comparable markets. Box office returns in China — where “Maverick” didn’t get a release — came in at $57 million, under the $100 million that had been projected before the latest wave of COVID cases in the country. But if the rest of the world legs out for “Avatar” as it did for “Maverick,” a final global total in between $1.5 billion and $2 billion is possible.
In today’s box office, the biggest hit franchises like “Star Wars” and the Marvel Cinematic Universe have benefited from a spoiler-averse culture, with fans eagerly coming out to find out as soon as possible what happens in a film like “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” or “Spider-Man: No Way Home” before the internet ruins it for them.
But “Top Gun: Maverick” became the biggest hit of the year in a different way. Yes, there was strong turnout on opening weekend from nostalgic Gen Xers who saw the first “Top Gun” in 1986, but spoilers weren’t really a concern for this film. “Maverick” was simply a blockbuster that gained a worldwide reputation as a film that needed to be seen on the big screen and one that audiences loved to revisit again and again, just like “Avatar” 13 years ago.
“Avatar: The Way of Water” would like to use the holiday season to perform the same way, inviting moviegoers to spend three hours in the oceans and forests of Pandora. Whether moviegoers respond to the call enough for this film to turn a sizable profit against its gargantuan production budget is still unclear, but the odds are in its favor.
