Labor Day weekend historically closes the summer box office season on a quiet note, but this weekend will be a particularly sluggish one for theaters as the fourth weekend of Warner Bros./New Line’s “Weapons” may return to the No. 1 spot after the limited engagement of “KPop Demon Hunters” edged it out last weekend.
The new release slate for this upcoming holiday is highlighted by Sony/Columbia’s “Caught Stealing,” a new crime thriller starring Austin Butler and directed by Darren Aronofsky. Next weekend may see more of a boost with the anticipated $35 million-plus opening for another New Line film, “The Conjuring: Last Rites.”
Jay Roach’s “War of the Roses” remake “The Roses” starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman will also be released by Searchlight, while Universal will offer a 50th anniversary re-release of the first modern blockbuster, Steven Spielberg’s “Jaws.”
“Caught Stealing” is expected to lead the newcomers with a studio-projected $10 million 4-day opening from 3,500 locations. Filmed in New York, it carries a net budget of $40 million and may need post-theatrical revenue to get in the black if it doesn’t find a foothold with an expected predominantly male audience.
While some criticism was leveled towards its familiar plot beats and gratuitous violence, critics have been largely positive towards “Caught Stealing,” calling it the most accessibly entertaining film from the director of “Requiem for a Dream” and “Mother!” As of this writing, it has an 86% Rotten Tomatoes score.
“The Roses,” a dark comedy based on the 1981 novel “The War of the Roses” has received mixed-to-positive reviews from critics with a 65% Rotten Tomatoes score. Projections have that film earning a $6-9 million 4-day opening from approximately 2,500 locations while the “Jaws” re-release is projected for a $6-8 million 4-day total.
Labor Day tends to be when a lot of the summer box office momentum slows to a crawl. Since theaters reopened following the pandemic, the four-day weekend stretch has exceeded $100 million for three of the past four years, with the highest being the $139 million extended weekend of 2021 thanks to the opening of Marvel’s “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.”
On the low end was Labor Day weekend 2022, where the fifteenth weekend of “Top Gun: Maverick” led the charts amid a drought of popular new releases that lasted until November, with overall totals for the holiday reaching just $71 million. 2025’s Labor Day total should be higher but is unlikely to exceed $100 million.
By Monday, the summer box office season, which lasts from the first Friday of May to Labor Day, is expected to be flat from last year’s $3.63 billion total. While there were fewer flops and down periods than last summer, only Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” exceeded $400 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide.
Since theaters reopened, the only $4 billion domestic summer has been in 2023, the year of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.” From 2007 to 2019, the summer total exceeded $4 billion every year save for the $3.8 billion total of 2017.
Despite the diminished market, some major theater chains have been able to adjust thanks to loyalty programs and other amenities that have increased spending from those who are still going to theaters frequently. For the second quarter of this year, which include the first half of the summer season and the release of spring hits “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sinners,” Cinemark reported the second highest quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in company history behind only the second quarter of 2019, the period in which “Avengers: Endgame” was released.
