After the Worst October Box Office in Over a Quarter Century, November Will Be Huge

It’s been a rough October for the box office, as business ended up as sluggish as it was during the prolonged first quarter slump at the start of 2025 and totals for the month finished at $428 million, the lowest unadjusted October total outside of the pandemic since 1998.

This is far from the first time that the box office has seen monthly and holiday totals sink to lows not seen since the turn of the century. This year also brought the lowest March totals seen in 30 years, and Memorial Day weekend 2024 came in as the worst since 1995.

But theater owners aren’t sweating, and that’s because the back half of November is stacked with virtual sure-fire blockbusters. Exhibition sources have told TheWrap that they’ve expected this slowdown ever since Lionsgate’s “Michael” and Warner Bros.’ “Mortal Kombat II” moved out of October to May 2026. They’ve been willing to bear the slump because of juggernauts “Zootopia 2” and “Wicked: For Good” coming this month.

But it’ll take a little patience.

For the next two weeks, Disney/20th Century’s “Predator: Badlands” and Paramount’s “The Running Man” will get the ball rolling somewhat with projected opening weekends of at least $25 million each. It’s unlikely either film will reach $100 million domestically, but they will at least provide some level of business, particularly from millennial and Gen X men who are fans of the original 1987 action vehicles both starring Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But the date theaters are really waiting for is Nov. 21, when Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” is expected to begin a boom period that will last all the way through New Year’s weekend. After the first “Wicked” dazzled audiences en route to a $473.7 million domestic/$756 million global run, “For Good” is tracking for an opening weekend of at least $150 million, flying above the $112.5 million launch of its predecessor.

And five days later comes Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which will try to match — or at least come close — to last year’s Thanksgiving five-day record of $225.4 million set by “Moana 2.” Both “Zootopia 2” and “Wicked: For Good” are expected to reach at least $400 million in their domestic runs and could clear $500 million depending on word-of-mouth strength and if they can co-exist in the marketplace alongside each other and December films like “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”

Can “Predator” expand its audience?

For now, we have “Predator: Badlands,” the third film in the deadly creature franchise from director Dan Trachtenberg and his first to get a theatrical release. It is currently tracking for a $25-29 million opening weekend when it opens this Friday.

Trachtenberg’s first “Predator” film, “Prey,” was released in 2022 exclusively on streaming. This was because of a deal made by 20th Century Fox with HBO prior to its 2019 acquisition by Disney, which would have put the film’s streaming release on HBO Max had it gone to theaters. Instead, new owners Disney made “Prey” a Hulu exclusive.

“Prey” was acclaimed by both critics and longtime “Predator” fans for its radically new approach to the franchise, focusing on an 18th century Comanche warrior named Naru who must defend her tribe from one of the Predators. Trachtenberg’s animated followup, “Predator: Killer of Killers,” was released on Hulu this past summer and built on the “Prey” concept, following a viking, samurai and WWII fighter pilot who are all forced to battle the Predators across time.

“Predator: Badlands” sees Trachtenberg deviate again from the “Predator” formula with a tale in which a Predator is the protagonist. The film stars Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi as Dek, a member of a Predator clan who despite being formidable by human standards, is seen as the runt by his father.

Hellbent on proving himself, Dek travels to a distant planet filled with deadly creatures in the hopes of slaying a monster called the Kalisk, deemed even by his clan as “unkillable.” Along the way, he gains the help of Thia (Elle Fanning), an android created by the Weyland-Yutani Corporation who is the lone survivor of the Kalisk’s attack on the corporation’s colony.

For hardcore “Predator” fans, this is right in their wheelhouse. While the Predators have been portrayed as protagonists relative to the instinctually murderous Xenomorphs in the crossover “Alien vs. Predator: Requiem,” Dek is the first Predator the audience is explicitly meant to root for and get invested in.

And if the critics are any indication, Trachtenberg’s gamble with that franchise formula is paying off again. Early reviews have given “Predator: Badlands” an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score, with critics praising the way the film builds Dek and Thia’s unexpected relationship without making Dek any less fearsome.

But the storyline’s nature isn’t the only big change “Predator: Badlands” brings. It is also the first film in the franchise to carry a PG-13 rating instead of an R.

That means that the action sequences, while intense, won’t be filled with gore like the recent “Alien: Romulus.” On the flipside, the PG-13 rating gives at least some chance for “Predator” to introduce itself to younger audiences the way Paramount’s “Scream” revival made the leap from ’90s teens to Gen Z teens.

While Trachtenberg has thrilled “Predator” devotees, any chance the franchise has at a theatrical future hinges on expanding the audience to a new generation. “Badlands” is expected to open just slightly above the $24.6 million of the last “Predator” movie released in 2018, which got negative reviews and earned a tepid $160 million worldwide against an $88 million budget.

If “Predator” fans also buy Trachtenberg’s changes and the softer rating, “Badlands” may get the word-of-mouth it needs to sustain itself against “The Running Man” the following week.

Both “Badlands” and “Running Man” will play a similar role in the marketplace as “Gladiator II” did last year against “Wicked” and “Moana 2,” serving as alternatives for a primarily male contingent who aren’t interested in musicals or family-friendly animation. “Gladiator II,” riding off of nostalgia, made $172 million domestically.

If these two offerings can match that combined, they will do their job helping theaters shake off a rusty month. But that is going to be a very tall order.