Disney may lose $30 million in revenue per week as its carriage dispute with YouTube TV has left ABC, ESPN and more of the media giant’s channels and programming dark on the Google-owned platform for 12 days.
The figure comes from Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne, who estimates that Disney could face a $60 million revenue shortfall from the programming blackout if it lasts for 14 days. The figure would translate to about $4.3 million each day, per his estimate.
A spokesperson for Disney did not immediately return TheWrap’s request for comment.
As for YouTube TV, the dispute could cost Google millions in the event that all of the platform’s subscribers were to accept the $20 credit being offered by the tech giant. However, that rebate is not applied automatically and is only available to individuals who canceled or paused their subscriptions. YouTube could also miss out on revenue from any subscribers who cancel the service due to the blackout.
A recent survey of 1,107 consumer by Drive Research found that nearly 1 in 4 YouTube TV subscribers have already canceled or are considering canceling the service because it “no longer delivers the core content they signed up for.” A YouTube TV spokesperson previously told TheWrap that “while subscriber churn is always regrettable, it’s been manageable and does not align with the findings of this survey.”
With over 8 million subscribers, YouTube TV is one of the largest pay TV operators alongside Charter Communications, Comcast and DirecTV. It is the largest virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD), followed by Hulu + Live TV and Fubo, which combined total nearly 6 million subscribers in North America.
The programming blackout between Disney and YouTube TV first began on Oct. 30. Disney has accused YouTube TV of continuing to “insist on receiving preferential terms that are below market” and making “few concessions.”
In a memo to staff on Friday, the company’s leadership argued that it has offered a deal that would cost less overall than the terms of its recently expired contract, with “fair” terms that are “in-line with the more than 500 other distributors that have renewed their agreements since last summer, including the top distributors, who are far larger than YouTube TV.” Additionally, Disney says it offered programming packages tailored to sports fans, entertainment fans, kids and families to offer more flexibility and value.
A YouTube TV spokesperson previously told TheWrap that Disney is “resorting to their old tactics like leaking documents to the press, negotiating in public through their paid talent and misrepresenting the facts including from the deals they’ve offered and taking credit for our product proposals.”
The tech giant said that Disney is asking them for a rate above what Charter and DirecTV pay for the ABC networks and to pay more for their content than what they charge the Hulu and Fubo, which recently completed its merger with Hulu + Live TV.
YouTube added that it isn’t asking for better rates, but for size-based “most favored nations,” a contractual promise that a programmer will not offer better terms to any other distributor without offering the same terms them. It also disputed that the tailored programming packages are Disney’s proposal, noting that it’s a topic they’ve had conversations with all of their partners about.
