With a $323 million global box office opening that is the largest for Hollywood this year, Universal/Amblin’s “Jurassic World Rebirth” has way more franchise fuel in the tank than was expected for a series seven films in. And that makes its upcoming box office duel with Warner Bros.’ “Superman” much more captivating.
“Jurassic World Rebirth” followed in the footsteps of its predecessors with strong walk-up ticket sales that allowed its estimated opening to steadily tick up over the course of the weekend, proving that dinosaurs on the big screen may not drive presales, but is still something that casual moviegoers won’t say no to if they see “now playing” ads on TV or online.
Then there’s “Superman,” one of the most anticipated — and certainly the most scrutinized — films of the year. It’s a key title for Warner Bros.’ hopes to sustain DC as a theatrical moneymaker and a referendum on the box office future of the once unsinkable superhero genre. A still-strong performance by “Jurassic World Rebirth” could chip into “Superman” at a time when comic book films have been on a slump.
“Superman” has a strong chance of a $100 million-plus opening, but tracking hasn’t changed from the wide range first offered nearly three weeks ago, with NRG offering the most optimistic range at an opening of $125 million to $145 million.
For theaters, it is the sort of scenario that is always a delight for them, similar to the November bonanza brought last year by “Wicked” and “Moana 2” with some side support from “Gladiator II.” Daniel Loria, SVP of content strategy at Boxoffice, is optimistic that the two films will coexist instead of one dominating the other.
“‘Jurassic’ has established itself with moviegoers as reliable popcorn entertainment, and ‘Superman’ is a superhero film about the most recognizable superhero of all time,” Loria said. “He’s not Blue Beetle. He’s not even Captain America.”
Where the friction points between the two films might come is difficult to pinpoint at this time, as reviews for “Superman” won’t be published until Tuesday. While there’s a large built-in audience for “Superman” no matter the consensus by critics — who have tended to demonstrate more superhero fatigue than the general populace in recent years — strong reviews could encourage general audiences to turn out for opening weekend rather than wait for public reception to decide whether to give it a try.
“The one big advantage that ‘Jurassic World’ has is that people know what it is. It is more of what they’ve always gotten from this franchise,” Loria said. “The strong marketing for ‘Superman’ has given the public an idea of James Gunn’s take on the character, but we don’t know yet if it is going to be more family-driven or fan-driven.”
It will also be curious to see how “Jurassic World” and superhero films perform alongside each other in this current theatrical market given how they have performed similarly in many overseas regions while placed farther apart.
The changes in audience tastes and overseas market maturation make comparisons to pre-pandemic Superman films like 2016’s “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” inexact. But the last big hit DC film, “The Batman,” earned $373 million in spring 2022 internationally excluding China. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” the last film from James Gunn, made $400 million in summer 2023 and “Jurassic World Dominion” made $473 million in summer 2022.
The difference maker for “Dominion,” compared to “Guardians” and “Batman,” was Japan, where the dino film made $46.7 million compared to less than $10 million each for the two superhero titles. “Dominion” had smaller but similar edges over those two films across Asia, suggesting that “Rebirth” should hold particularly strong on that continent against “Superman,” which will get stronger international numbers in Europe and Latin America.
While “Rebirth” drew a relatively tepid B from American opening night crowds on CinemaScore, 60% of moviegoers polled by Posttrak gave the film a “definite recommend” rating compared to 57% for “Dominion.” Provided that a similar level of reception carries over internationally, “Rebirth” should have similar holds at the box office to “Dominion” over the next two weeks.
It will then be up to how it performs in the later stages of its theatrical run with additional competition from “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” to determine whether “Rebirth” beats the odds and joins its predecessors in the $1 billion club, or simply settles for a strong $800 million-plus final global cume that would make it Universal’s biggest box office success since last year’s Fourth of July release, “Despicable Me 4.”
