After nearly three years of development and public speculation, it is finally time to see if Warner Bros./DC Studios’ “Superman” can launch a brand-new cinematic universe and revitalize a superhero genre that is no longer the surefire box office behemoth it was in the 2010s.
It will begin with what is set to be a big opening weekend, but industry insiders can’t seem to agree on how big they think it will be.
Box office tracker NRG is projecting a $130 million opening weekend for “Superman,” while Warner Bros. is projecting a far more conservative $100 million-plus. Rival distributors who spoke to TheWrap project an opening in the $120-125 million range, while two analysts predict an opening similar to the $118 million of director James Gunn’s last film “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which grossed $845 million worldwide.
Others are more optimistic, expecting the widely positive reviews and glowing praise from fans who attended preview screenings to drive walk-up traffic and push the opening closer to $150 million, a figure that would put it among the top 5 highest openings ever for a DC film before inflation, with the record being held by “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” at $166 million in 2016.
It’s a sign of how much uncertainty there is in where the upper edge of Superman’s box office draw lies in the current theatrical marketplace, as well as how much scrutiny surrounds this film and what it could mean for Warner Bros. and DC Studios’ future. And with the fate of a new planned cinematic universe dependent on a massive hit, the stakes are sky high.
Gunn, for his part, is trying to downplay any conversations about what bar “Superman” needs to clear for it to be labeled a box office success.
“This is not the riskiest endeavor in the world,” Gunn told GQ. “Is there something riding on it? Yeah, but it’s not as big as people make it out to be. They hear these numbers that the movie’s only going to be successful if it makes $700 million or something and it’s just complete and utter nonsense. It doesn’t need to be as big of a situation as people are saying.”
Perhaps so. A theatrical final total in the $600 million range globally but with widespread praise that leads to it being discovered and embraced by more people in the long run would be better for DC than what happened to “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.”
That film has its fair share of fans but proved to be so polarizing back in 2016 that it grossed $874 million worldwide but had a domestic total of $330 million despite opening to $166 million, for a multiple of 1.98x. In comparison, “Deadpool & Wolverine” had a multiple of roughly 3x, and studios typically want their blockbusters to be at 2x and above.
Fortunately for Gunn and Warner Bros., the buzz for “Superman” might be peaking at just the right time. Critics have been mostly positive towards the film with an 85% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing. While some criticism was leveled at a narrative described as overstuffed with ideas and characters, praise has been heaped upon David Corenswet for his performance as an earnest, likable and slightly foolish Superman, as well as co-stars Rachel Brosnahan and Nicholas Hoult as Lois Lane and Lex Luthor.
Meanwhile, social media reactions from DC fans and bloggers invited to advance screenings have been glowing in their praise, with particular excitement around Edi Gathegi’s breakout performance as the tech genius superhero Mr. Terrific, the latest in a long line of obscure superheroes to be elevated by Gunn.
That buzz has had a dollars and cents impact. According to data provided by a rival studio source, the ticket presales for “Superman” this past Sunday were 5% behind the presales for the Sunday prior to the release of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” which earned a $106 million 3-day opening in February 2023.
On Tuesday, when reviews were published, the presales jumped to 38% ahead of “Quantumania.”
“Lots of people were waiting to hear if the movie was good, and now that they have, everything is picking up,” the rival exec said.
Should they continue to pick up, “Superman” could enjoy the strong late pre-sales and walk-up traffic that “Jurassic World Rebirth” got, fueling its domestic opening to $147 million over five days. Universal’s blockbuster is currently projected for a $40-45 million second weekend.
“While there was some concern that these blockbusters would cannibalize each other, it actually looks like they are enhancing each other’s profile and box office potential,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
The argument made against the notion that superhero fatigue is setting in at the box office is that while the genre is no longer guaranteed a big number from audiences willing to see any superhero on the big screen, they will turn out if the reception is strong. The $1.33 billion global run of last year’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” lent credence to that, but the genre took a hit after the weak $382 million run of “Thunderbolts*,” a film that was well received by critics and audiences but was largely ignored by those who aren’t still hardcore Marvel fans.
But Superman isn’t Black Widow or Bucky Barnes or The Red Guardian. He is the most famous superhero ever created. And if a widely enjoyed film featuring him can restore interest in other kinds of DC films, it will make the jobs of folks at Warner Bros. preparing to make more big swings on original films like “One Battle After Another” and “The Bride!” a lot easier.
