After September’s surprisingly strong box office numbers, October is settling into a period of theaters looking for films that can tide them over with decent returns until the holiday heavyweights arrive in November. Disney’s “Tron: Ares” should continue that trend, though how much it can provide theaters in the long run is in question.
With the studio’s sequels to “Zootopia” and “Avatar” presumed to be this winter’s highest grossers, the third “Tron” film is expected to have a considerably lower box office. It’s a continuation of a mixed year for Disney, which earned Hollywood’s sole $1 billion grosser this year with “Lilo & Stitch,” while its remake of “Snow White” bombed and its Marvel offerings “Thunderbolts*” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” got decidedly mixed results.
The lower ceiling for “Tron: Ares” is based in part on the performance of “Tron: Legacy” 15 years ago, a legacy sequel that hit theaters long before the phrase “legacyquel” entered the pop culture lexicon.
Released in December 2010 amidst the post-“Avatar” 3D theater craze, “Tron: Legacy” opened to $44 million and legged out over the holiday period to $172 million domestic and $400 million worldwide. The film spawned a short-lived animated series, “Tron: Uprising,” and rides at Disney parks in Shanghai and Orlando.
At the time, Disney opted not to continue the franchise, with “Tron: Ares” marking more of a fresh start.
Projections for the latest entry are topping out at $50 million, though exhibitor and analyst sources tell TheWrap they expect an opening around $40-45 million. That puts it in the same neighborhood as the $42 million opening of “Snow White,” which fell off a cliff after its opening weekend and grossed only $87.2 million domestic and $205 million worldwide against a $250 million-plus budget.
It’s worth remembering that “Tron: Legacy” wasn’t a critical darling back in 2010, receiving a 51% Rotten Tomatoes score. But enough moviegoers were wowed by the film’s radical redesign of the virtual Grid, where much of the sequel takes place, modernizing the groundbreaking CGI world of the original 1982 “Tron” with a sleek black-and-neon aesthetic that pulled inspiration from sci-fi classics like “2001: A Space Odyssey.” With a B+ on CinemaScore, “Tron: Legacy” took advantage of the leg-friendly holiday season to score a 3.9x multiple.
But a decade and a half later, as audience selectivity increases and even so-so word-of-mouth could damage theatrical interest, would similar reception for “Tron: Ares” lead to heavier holdover drops? The critics’ reception for “Ares” is similar to “Legacy”: impressed by the visuals and soundtrack, less so with the plot. It sits on Rotten Tomatoes at 55%.
In the coming weekends, the biggest competition “Tron: Ares” will have for the under-30 audiences it needs to win over to leg out will be Universal’s PG-13 horror offering “Black Phone 2,” with other films like Searchlight’s “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” and 20th Century’s “Predator: Badlands” aimed towards older demographics (both Disney titles).
Whether or not “Ares” wins over Gen Z the way “Legacy” won over millennials will come down to whether light cycle chases set in the real world rather than the Grid are enough of a sell. But don’t expect lead star Jared Leto to be much of a draw. Nine years removed from his biggest box office hit — “Suicide Squad” with $749 million worldwide — Leto’s highest grossing wide release since then has been “Blade Runner 2049” with $259 million in 2017. His next highest film? The infamous “Morbius” with $162.7 million. It’s also noteworthy that Leto didn’t have a leading role in either “Suicide Squad” or “Blade Runner 2049.”
Regardless of the outcome, “Tron: Ares” is a film that isn’t as crucial to Disney’s uncertain future regarding its once bulletproof franchise stable as Marvel, “Zootopia 2” or the impending return of “Star Wars” to the big screen. “Ares” is the final film produced by the brainchild of Disney’s live-action remake series, Sean Bailey, who ended a 14-year run as Disney’s production president last year. Where the studio goes with its live-action plans going forward will be determined by his successor, former Searchlight co-chief David Greenbaum.
Meanwhile, another film hitting theaters this weekend is Paramount’s “Roofman,” a true crime tragicomedy starring Channing Tatum as Jefferson Manchester, a military veteran who escaped prison after being convicted of robbing multiple McDonalds and hid inside a Toys R’ Us for months.
Tatum has proven with films like “The Lost City” and “Dog” that he can be a profitable leading man at the right budget level, and “Roofman” is the sort of low-budget film that “American Fiction” writer Cord Jefferson urged Hollywood to make more of in his Oscars speech last year with a reported budget of $19 million.
At that level, the projected opening weekend range of $8-12 million would be a solid start for “Roofman,” and how it legs out will come down to whether Tatum’s primarily female audience embraces the actor bringing his charm and comedy to a more dramatic character who brings about his own downfall with his terrible decisions. Critics have given the film largely positive reviews with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Finally, there’s Roadside Attractions’ “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” which is expected to go nowhere with a $1-3 million opening from 1,300 theaters. The film was independently financed and later acquired by Roadside and Lionsgate after its Sundance debut.
Directed by Bill Condon and starring Diego Luna and Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” is a remake of the stage musical in turn based on the 1976 novel by Manuel Puig about a political prisoner who retreats into a fantasy about a Hollywood musical featuring his favorite starlet. The film has an 80% RT score.
