TheWrap awards guru Steve Pond expects a whole lot of “La La Land” — and some surprises
Best Picture
Predicted nominees, in order of probability:
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Arrival”
“Lion”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“Fences”
If there’s a ninth nominee: “Hacksaw Ridge”
Best Director
Predicted nominees:
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Best Actor
Predicted nominees:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Best Actress
Predicted nominees:
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted nominees:
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted nominees:
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted nominees:
“Moonlight”
“Fences”
“Lion”
“Arrival”
“Hidden Figures”
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted nominees:
“Manchester by the Sea”
“La La Land”
“Hell or High Water”
“Captain Fantastic”
“The Lobster”
Best Animated Feature
Predicted nominees:
“Zootopia”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Your Name”
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted nominees:
“O.J.: Made in America”
“Life, Animated”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“Cameraperson”
“13th”
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted nominees:
“Toni Erdmann” (Germany)
“The Salesman” (Iran)
“Land of Mine” (Denmark)
“My Life as a Zucchini” (Switzerland)
“Paradise” (Russia)
Best Original Song
Predicted nominees:
“City of Stars” from “La La Land”
“How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land”
“Letter to the Free” from “13th”
“The Rules Don’t Apply” from “Rules Don’t Apply”
Best Original Score
Predicted nominees:
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Lion”
“The BFG”
“Nocturnal Animals”
Best Cinematography
Predicted nominees:
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Arrival”
“Silence”
“Jackie”
Best Editing
Predicted nominees:
“La La Land”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Arrival”
“Moonlight”
“Manchester by the Sea”
Best Costume Design
Predicted nominees:
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“The Dressmaker”
Best Production Design
Predicted nominees:
“La La Land”
“Jackie”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“The Handmaiden”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted nominees:
“Deadpool”
“Star Trek Beyond”
“A Man Called Ove”
Best Sound Editing
Predicted nominees:
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Rogue One”
“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Sully”
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted nominees:
“La La Land”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Arrival”
“Rogue One”
“Deepwater Horizon”
Best Visual Effects
Predicted nominees:
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Arrival”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
Best Documentary Short
From what I have seen and heard, the ones to watch in the documentary-short category are “The White Helmets,” “Joe’s Violin,” “Close Ties” and “4.1 Miles” at the top of the list, with “Watani: My Homeland” and “Extremis” in the running as well.
Best Live Action Short
I wouldn’t bet against Kim Magnusson’s “Silent Nights” since the Danish producer has been nominated five times and won twice. There’s also buzz behind the postapocalyptic “Graffiti,” the Student Oscar winner “Nocturne in Black,” the comic “Timecode” (with a late-minute twist, which Oscar voters love) the Hungarian childhood tale “Sing” and Selim Azzazi’s “Ennemis Interieurs,” about a man caught in a French terrorist investigation.
Best Animated Short
Two are from Disney/Pixar (“Piper” and “Inner Workings”), though neither is among those companies’ best, while “Borrowed Time” was made by moonlighting Pixar artists. Viewers can change the perspective in “Pearl” by 360 degrees, but the technology might outweigh the charming story. Academy voters like hand-drawn animation, which could help “Once Upon a Line,” and they like personal stories, which covers “Pear Cider and Cigarettes.” But also look out for “Blind Vaysha,” which has a spectacular look, and “The Head Vanishes,” about a woman suffering from dementia.