“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” began what’s expected to be a robust global theatrical release with $2.8 million in Thursday preview screenings. Showings began at 6:00 p.m. on Thursday evening in 2,700 theaters.
Hopes are high that the film, which was distributed not by a studio but AMC Theatres, will open above $100 million domestically and $150 million worldwide. We’re still talking about a $20 million concert documentary with minimal marketing, so a profitable run is all but assured.
If that Thursday figure seems low considering the hype and pre-release discourse, remember that the advance-night showings were only announced and put on sale on Wednesday evening. The deluge of folks who bought their tickets weeks ago for a Friday night or Saturday night — with no refunds and no use of AMC A-List or related discount programs — wouldn’t automatically cancel their previous order to opt for the earlier showtimes. This actually compares well to the $2.2 million in pre-release showings for “Michael Jackson: This Is It” in October 2009.
That documentary, released just four months after the King of Pop’s shocking death at the age of 50, earned $32 million over a Wed-Sun debut and $101 million in its worldwide opening. Most projections for the Taylor Swift-starring concert film suggested a Fri-Sun domestic opening between $80 million and $120 million, although the hype shouldn’t create a scenario where an otherwise spectacular opening weekend is spun as a disappointment. There isn’t much precedent for this kind of film being released with this level of hype.
For what it’s worth, it’s likely that this film’s opening weekend will harken back to the 2000s during which advance night screenings weren’t that much of a given film’s opening weekend.
In 2008, “Iron Man” earned $3.5 million on Thursday toward a $102 million opening weekend. In 2010, “Iron Man 2” earned $7.5 million on Thursday toward a $128 million debut. By 2013, “Iron Man 3” earned $15.6 million toward a $174 million Fri-Sun opening weekend. As the notion of preview screenings has become more mainstream in the last 10-15 years, with screenings also starting earlier and earlier in the day, the percentage of an opening weekend made up of pre-release previews has generally increased.
So, no, one shouldn’t presume that the Thursday preview grosses are going to make up the now-standard, for tentpoles, 10-15% of the overall opening weekend. If it pulls the previously standard 2-3% figure — think “Gravity” a decade ago, then “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” will open with $112 million this weekend. Even a 5% split will mean $56 million while a 3.5% split will give it $80 million, both of which would be a spectacular figure for a movie like this no matter the pre-release hype.
Again, the preview screenings were a last-minute announcement, so it can be presumed that the vast majority of intended moviegoers are planning on showing up in the conventional Fri-Sun frame.
