A year ago, Disney obliterated the Thanksgiving weekend box office record with “Moana 2,” which earned a titanic $225 million five-day opening in the U.S. and Canada. The studio’s animated sequel for 2025, “Zootopia 2,” isn’t expected to get anywhere near that this weekend.
But when all is said and done, “Zootopia 2” could soar past the $1.05 billion global total that “Moana 2” finished with. That’s because it has stronger reviews, potential for longer legs and, most importantly, some of the highest hype levels ever seen for a Hollywood film in China, let alone in a post-pandemic age where the country has almost entirely left American blockbusters behind.
In the U.S., “Zootopia 2” is projected for at least a $135 million five-day opening, a total that would make it the second-highest Thanksgiving weekend ever before inflation adjustment. Prior to 2024, the holiday record belonged to another Disney sequel, “Frozen II,” with $125 million in what was actually its second weekend in theaters in 2019. “Moana 2” then blasted past that record by a cool $100 million.
“Moana 2,” which was announced by Disney 10 months prior to its release and repurposed from a planned Disney+ streaming series, was able to reach those heights thanks to the original 2016 film’s status as the repeat movie of choice for millions of kids and families during the pandemic.
As the most-watched film on Disney+, the film built up a level of pre-release hype that has yet to be replicated by any American animated film in the last five years, resulting in a historic Turkey Day turnout despite a critical reception that was mildly positive at best with a 60% Rotten Tomatoes score.
But while “Moana 2” nearly matched the domestic total of “Frozen II” with $460 million, its overseas grosses were significantly less at $598.8 million compared to $973 for “Frozen II.” Despite its torrid start, “Moana 2” needed nearly two months of play to get to $1 billion, as the film got less replay viewings than its record launch might have suggested between good-but-not great audience reception and competition from Christmas films like “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa.”
Contrast that with “Zootopia 2,” the sequel to another 2016 Disney title which may not have gotten the same level of pandemic home play as “Moana,” but which has built up its own fanbase over the past nine years and is getting far better critical reception for this follow-up.
With 69 reviews logged at time of writing, “Zootopia 2” sports a Rotten Tomatoes score of 94%. While critics are split on whether it is better than the original, the consensus is that it is more than a worthy successor with particular praise given to the film’s introduction of reptiles to the mammal-filled world of Zootopia and Ginnifer Goodwin and Jason Bateman’s chemistry as the voices behind Judy and Nick.
The last Walt Disney Animation production to head into theaters with reviews this strong was “Encanto,” a film whose abbreviated theatrical run was hamstrung by a COVID resurgence in November 2021 and which didn’t become a cultural hit until its Disney+ release at Christmas. Meanwhile, Greenlight Analytics surveys for “Zootopia 2” show a theatrical intent level of 56% among surveyed moviegoers, a level that could rise if critic and opening night word-of-mouth leads to a surge in walk-up ticket sales during the Friday-to-Sunday period.
Given the unique circumstances around “Moana 2” and “Encanto” as well as the poor reception for recent bombs “Strange World” and “Wish,” “Zootopia 2” is in a unique position for post-COVID Disney titles. The only other recent sequel with pre-release awareness and strong reviews is Pixar’s 2024 hit “Inside Out 2,” which exploded past all expectations and grossed a then-animation record $1.69 billion, nearly doubling the total of its 2015 predecessor.
Obviously, Disney would like to tamp down any comparisons to that unexpected landmark hit, but “Zootopia 2” may get closer to “Inside Out 2” in global grosses than currently expected thanks to the X-factor Hollywood once took as a given: China.
As Hollywood has struggled to adjust to the turbulent new normal of the 2020s, one of the big changes it was forced to accept was the loss of China as a major consistent moneymaker.
As TheWrap reported back when films were at risk of getting sucked into Donald Trump’s trade war, only eight films from American studios have grossed more than $100 million in China, the highest being “Avatar: The Way of Water” in 2022-23 with $246 million. By comparison, nine Hollywood films crossed that threshold in 2019 alone, led by “Avengers: Endgame” with $632 million.
But “Zootopia 2” might become Hollywood’s top-grossing film in China post-COVID in less than a week. While audiences there have abandoned nearly all of Hollywood’s franchises, including Marvel, “Zootopia” has remained wildly popular with its colorful environments and expressive animal characters. In 2023, Disney opened a new “Zootopia”-themed area at Shanghai Disneyland that draws the longest lines in the park, and the company has used that section to promote “Zootopia 2” with the addition of characters and gags from the sequel for park-goers to interact with.
By cultivating that unique popularity, Disney has been rewarded with unprecedented anticipation in China for “Zootopia 2.” Chinese film site Maoyan has recorded more than 2 million users expressing their intent to see the film, more than any other American film in the history of the site and ranking in the Top 5 among all films.
With that level of interest and record presales, Maoyan is projecting a five-day opening of at least $180 million and a total Chinese theatrical run of $360 million. Only five Hollywood films in history have ever grossed more than $300 million in China: “Avengers: Endgame,” “The Fate of the Furious,” “Furious 7,” “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Transformers: Age of Extinction.”
“Age of Extinction” had the lowest global gross of those five hit films, and it made $1.1 billion in 2014.
So as long as “Zootopia 2” at least matches the theatrical performance of “Moana 2” in the rest of the world, China will push it well past its 2024 counterpart. From there, it comes down to how well it holds in December against competition like “Wicked: For Good,” “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and whether it can attract non-family general audiences as well as “Inside Out 2.”
Even if it falls short of that stretch goal, the coming weeks will prove that Judy and Nick have become as globally beloved among Disney’s cast of characters as Moana and Maui or Anna and Elsa, and its unique appeal in China at a time when Hollywood at large has been forced to move on from trying to win over audiences there will be something that Disney will be pouring all its resources into sustaining in the years ahead.
