While the rule of threes doesn’t apply to most franchises, it certainly will when “Kung Fu Panda 3” hits theaters this weekend, and the movie’s success will probably carry itself all the way through February until Disney’s “Zootopia” opens on March 4.
Yes, the third installment in the franchise featuring voices of Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Seth Rogen and Dustin Hoffman, is looking to make less than the previous movies, tracking at about $35 million to $45 million, according to experts. The first and second movie made $60.2 million and $47.7 million on their opening weekends, respectively. But the fact that “Kung Fu Panda 3” is looking at a lower opening weekend doesn’t mean that it’s going to bomb, at all.
And there are several reasons as to why experts believe the animated film will thrive at the box office. Placed on a good weekend with no other animated family film in sight, “Kung Fu Panda 3” has a big opportunity to stay on top of the box office charts for the coming weeks — and even dethroning current first placeholder, “The Revenant.”
Word of mouth has been extremely strong for the third film in the franchise, as is standard with DreamWorks’ movies. Moreover, the franchise not only has an incredible voice cast, but has branded itself as the ultimate family film that is appealing to both kids and adults.
Here are the five reasons why “Kung Fu Panda 3” will hit a K.O. at the box office:
1. There has been no animated film since the holidays, and there are none in sight until March 4 There are no animated family films on the calendar until Disney’s release of “Zootopia” on March 4. This will give “Kung Fu Panda 3” the whole of February to run its due course, and experts believe that the film is going to dominate most upcoming weekends.
“It may not have the biggest opening weekends, but it’s going to decline very slowly, and it’s going to have legs,” Exhibitor Relations senior analyst Jeff Bock told TheWrap. “It definitely will be on top of the box office … Until ‘Zootopia’ opens, it doesn’t have much in the way in terms of competition. I don’t see why it won’t make $35 million to $40 million.”
In fact, this is also one of the few animated films that opened after the holidays aside from Lionsgate’s “Norm of the North.” It opened on Jan. 15 and has grossed $14.2 million so far, which isn’t ideal considering its budget was $18 million. And other movies that opened around or before the holidays haven’t scored that well either.
“There hasn’t been a family film in theaters since the holidays,” Bock added. “‘The Good Dinosaur’ underperformed, ‘Alvin and the Chipmunks’ didn’t play out. A quality animated film at this point is always good business and we’ve seen that in the past.”
2. Released on a great weekend This weekend is an ideal weekend for an animated family movie to hit theaters.
“At this time of the year, it’s all about Oscar contenders and pretty intense dramas like ‘The Revenant’ and ‘The Hateful Eight,'” Paul Dergarabedian said, senior analyst at Rentrak. “It’s sort of a no-family land of box office in this time frame and it seems to be devoid of options for families, so ‘Kung Fu Panda 3’ is giving families an option at the movie theaters.”
In fact, “Kung Fu Panda 3” is looking to dethrone Leonardo DiCaprio‘s “The Revenant,” which in its fifth wide release weekend is tracking around $10 million. Bock agreed with Dergarabedian, and said that movies “are making money in the January market because it is notoriously free of family-made competition,” claiming that the success of “Paul Blart: Mall Cop’s” in 2009 was largely due to an open weekend.
DreamWorks
3. Strong social media presence and word of mouth “Kung Fu Panda 3” has had a strong social media play in previous weeks, and although it has died down in the past week (due to the time of the year, winter storm Jonas and the NFL playoffs), BoxOffice.com senior analyst Shawn Robbins considers it “very encouraging.” Overall, the volume of tweets over the last month are comparable to that of “Hotel Transylvania 2” and “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” which went on to gross $169 million and $177 million, respectively.
From Jan. 22 to Jan. 25, “Kung Fu Panda 3” garnered 17,050 tweets, which is more than “Penguins of Madagascar” gathered in 2014 (12,869 tweets). Robbins said the franchise has “nearly 23 million fans to begin with, so there isn’t much room for a franchise to grow from there except in rare circumstances.”
Moreover, word of mouth from not only critics but fans of the previous films in the franchise is exceptionally strong for “Kung Fu Panda 3.” The first two had a Rotten Tomatoes score of 87 and 81 percent, and the new film is looking at 82 percent.
“DreamWorks, like Pixar, has incredibly good word of mouth,” Bock said. “They have a great track record, and the products are always solid.”
4. Powerful branding The franchise itself has branded itself incredibly well. According to Dergarabedian, “the previous two have done very well on home video and that sets the stage for the latest film to do well in theaters. It’s been branded for families and kids for years.”
As mentioned before, the films in the “Kung Fu Panda” franchise have received great reviews, which classify it as a “consistently well-performing brand,” Dergarabedian said.
DreamWorks
5) Movie for the entire family While it is an animated film, “Kung Fu Panda 3” is not just a movie for kids — adults also take interest in it due to the funny and entertaining subject matter and jokes.
“Jack Black is funny, and it’s highly entertaining,” Dergarabedian said.
“Last weekend, you couldn’t take your kids to the movie theater. DreamWorks caters to adults, and you could see this as an entire family,” Bock added.
30 Highest Grossing Animated Movies of All Time Worldwide
A look at top animated moneymakers as of June 2018, from "The Lion King" to "Zootopia." The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
30. "Ratatouille" (2007)
Worldwide Gross: $620,702,951
Director Brad Bird mixed a love of gourmet French cuisine with talking rodents in the 2007 fancy feast.
Pixar Animation Studios
29. "How to Train Your Dragon 2" (2014)
Worldwide Gross: $631,537,519
Dreamworks' 2014 sequel upped the ante with bigger dragons and longer flight sequences.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
28. "Kung Fu Panda" (2008)
Worldwide Gross: $631,744,560
The success of Jack Black's 2008 martial arts-meet-spongy mammal movie set into motion its inevitable -- and even more profitable -- sequel.
Dreamworks Animation Studios
27. "The Incredibles" (2004)
Worldwide Gross: $633,019,734
In 2004, Brad Bird's first Pixar outing wowed audiences with complicated animated action scenes, cross-generational comedy and superhero mayhem.
Pixar Animation Studios
26. "Sing" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $634,151,679
Illumination's animal-karaoke musical crooned its way onto the list.
25. "Moana" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $643,331,111
Disney's Hawaii-set movie scored two Oscar nominations, for Best Animated Feature and Lin-Manuel Miranda's song "How Far I'll Go."
Disney
24. "Big Hero 6" (2014)
Worldwide Gross: $657,818,612
Disney's 2014 robot tale combined anime aesthetics, superhero action and Pixar's heart.
Disney Animation Studios
23. "Ice Age: The Meltdown" (2006)
Worldwide Gross: $660,940,780
Fox's 2006 prehistoric romp proved the success of the first was no fluke.
Twentieth Century Fox
22. "Kung Fu Panda 2" (2011)
Worldwide Gross: $665,692,281
With the franchise's skills proven, DreamWorks Animation gave the world another hit of comedy with this animated martial arts sequel in 2011.
Dreamworks Animation Studios
21. "Up" (2009)
Worldwide Gross: $735,099,082
The 2009 fan favorite demonstrated that original ideas with big emotions could make big money.
Pixar Animation Studios
20. "Monsters University" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $744,229,437
Ten years after the release of "Monsters Inc," Pixar sent fans back to school in a 2013 prequel.
Pixar Animation Studios
19. "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" (2012)
Worldwide Gross: $746,921,274
DreamWorks Animation's "Madagascar" series kept the studio afloat with a string of breezy successes, including 2012's third installment.
Dreamworks Animation Studios
18. "Shrek Forever After" (2010)
Worldwide Gross: $752,600,867
The big green ogre's final chapter dropped in 2010.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
17. "Shrek the Third" (2007)
Worldwide Gross: $798,958,162
Made in 2007, this sequel proved there was still some gas left in this fantasy mash-up comedy franchise.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
16. "Coco" (2017)
Worldwide Gross: $807,082,196
Directed by Lee Unkrich, this animated film captured everyone's hearts and even won the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature in 2018.
Disney/Pixar
15. "Inside Out" (2015)
Worldwide Gross: $857,611,174
Disney Pixar hit the home run again with this animated feature film about the emotions inside your head, starring Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader.
Disney/Pixar
14. "The Secret Life of Pets" (2016)
Worldwide Gross:$875,457,937
Universal/Illumination's story of dogs seeking out adventure while their owners are away charmed its way onto the list.
Profits abound for this 2012 fourth installment in the chilly prehistoric franchise, followed just behind it's predecessor.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation
12."Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" (2009)
Worldwide Gross: $886,686,817
While other films have made bigger waves in the States, international sales have always returned big money for Fox's "Ice Age" franchise, proven again by the 2009 entry.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation
11. "Shrek 2" (2004)
Worldwide Gross: $919,838,758
DreamWorks Animation proved to be worthy Pixar competition with its successful "Shrek" franchise.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
10. "Finding Nemo" (2003)
Worldwide Gross: $940,335,536
"Finding Nemo" was something of a second-wind for Pixar, solidifying the company's place as the titans of modern animation.
Pixar Studios
9. "The Lion King" (1994)
Worldwide Gross: $968,483,777
Can you feel the love tonight for this Disney animated classic?
Disney Animation Studios
8. "Despicable Me 2" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $970,761,885
Illumination's sequel managed to make more money than its predecessor and put the upcoming "Minions" spin-off into motion.
Illumination Studios
7. "Zootopia" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $1,023,784,195
Disney charmed audiences in 2016 with its cop thriller pairing a rookie rabbit cop and a wily fox informant.
Disney
6. "Finding Dory" (2016)
Worldwide Gross: $1,028,570,889
The sequel to "Finding Nemo" swam right back into audience's hearts.
Pixar
5. "Despicable Me 3" (2017)
Worldwide Gross: $1,034,799,409
Illumination's follow-up -- featuring Gru's blond-haired brother -- became the franchise's biggest grosser.
4. "Toy Story 3" (2010)
Worldwide Gross: $1,066,969,703
Built on Pixar's critical and commercial goodwill, the third installment in the mega-franchise brought in big profits.
Pixar Studios
3. "Minions" (2015)
Worldwide Gross: $1,167,245,366
The little yellow helpers crossed the $1 billion mark at the end of August, raking in more money then "Despicable Me" and "Despicable Me 2" for Universal Pictures.
Universal Pictures/Illumination Entertainment
2. "Incredibles 2" (2018)
Worldwide Gross: $1,231,675,731
The superpowered family sprung back into action a full 14 years after the original -- but far surpassed the original film's box office haul.
Disney/Pixar
1. "Frozen" (2013)
Worldwide Gross: $1,274,219,009
Disney's 2013 smash-hit takes the box office top spot. And then there was merchandising, video on demand and home video that audiences just couldn't let go...
Disney Animation Studios
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Cartoon characters that cleaned up at the global box office, from “The Lion King” to “Incredibles 2”
A look at top animated moneymakers as of June 2018, from "The Lion King" to "Zootopia." The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.