The 2024 election was one for the gamblers. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi played a significant role in a U.S. presidential contest for the first time, correctly forecasting the outcome. Silicon Valley’s VCs loudly backed Trump, betting he’d win and deliver a return. And Elon Musk turned X into a megaphone for his Trump endorsement, putting all $44 billion on red.
Did these bets pay off? And who lost? Here’s a rundown of 2024’s winners and losers:
Winner: prediction markets
Heading into election day, both Polymarket and Kalshi had Donald Trump as the clear favorite, with his odds of winning hovering above 60%.