What You Need to Know About the Leno Experiment

Months of hype and media pontification notwithstanding, Monday's debut of "The Jay Leno Show" is unlikely to change the face of television as we know it.

That doesn't mean it won't be fun to watch the fallout. And there will be fallout.

Easily the most anticipated premiere of the new season -- at least among TV industry insiders -- Leno's success or failure promises to reveal much about the short-term future of the National Broadcasting Co.

And, depending on how viewers respond, it could play a significant role in shaping the long-term direction of primetime programming.

As NBC's Leno experiment finally begins, here are five key points to keep in mind:

Ignore the first month of ratings. They don't matter.
Awareness studies show NBC's marketing team has done a stellar job letting viewers know Jay is moving to 10 o'clock -- and that many of them plan on checking him out.

Add in big name guests such as Tom Cruise and Jerry Seinfeld, and it's a safe bet that ratings for Leno will look impressive for the first week out.

Likewise, it seems logical NBC will take a hit next week, when rival networks start rolling out their new and returning 10 p.m. shows. Unless Leno books Osama bin Laden (or Glenn Beck), he's gonna get dinged as audiences flock to catch up with old favorites.

After the first month of Leno, however, competing shows will have settled into their timeslot. The bright and shiny glow will have worn off Leno's show. And we might even get to see how Jay does opposite entertainment repeats.

There's one exception to this rule: If Leno bombs out of the gate -- if viewers don't even show up to sample his new offering -- then get ready for lots of "Panic at the Peacock" headlines.

NBC's demo love will be tested.
For much of the past decade, NBC has been steadfast in its insistence that demographics are all that matter in TV.

Most recently, we've seen this demophilia in play in the late night race, where Conan O'Brien has helped dramatically bring down the average age of the viewership for "Tonight," beating David Letterman handily in adults 18-49 even as Dave takes the viewer crown.

But "The Jay Leno Show" will test NBC's commitment to the power of demos. There's a real chance Leno could skew older than the typical NBC primetime show.

And while CBS seems likely to continue owning 10 p.m. in viewers, it's possible Leno could slip past some of ABC's younger-skewing 10 p.m. hours.

Will NBC cite total viewer tallies when hyping ratings? Or will it stick to its demo-centric worldview?

There's only one way Leno changes the TV landscape: Total victory.
If "The Jay Leno Show" is a clear-cut bomb, nothing much will really change in TV land. NBC will still be in fourth place, rival networks will pick up a few million extra viewers at 10 p.m., and Peacock executives will begin work on a new way to spin their status as perennial ratings laggard.

If Leno just muddles along, it's another vote for the status quo.

 

1 | 2 | 3