Tim Burton‘s “Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children” will most assuredly win the upcoming weekend at the box office, but that doesn’t mean the movie will be in the clear.
Made for $110 million (not counting marketing costs), the 20th Century Fox adventure fantasy book adaptation is expected to open to roughly $30 million from 3,520 theaters. (The studio has set a more conservative estimate in the mid 20s.)
The movie should play well to audiences internationally and will need strong second and third weekends domestically to move into the black.
“Deepwater Horizon,” Peter Berg‘s true-life tale from Lionsgate and Summit, faces an even bigger challenge. Expected to gross approximately $18 million from 3,200-plus theaters on its three-day debut — likely edging out “The Magnificent Seven” in the process — the movie has an uphill climb to justify its pricey production costs, which were reported to have surpassed $100 million.
If its 89 percent Rotten Tomatoes score holds or even improves through the weekend, the prospects for “Deepwater Horizon” could improve. Plus, its all-star cast led by Mark Wahlberg could attract audiences based on name power (Wahlberg movies have a history of besting initial estimates).
This weekend’s third new wide release is the Kristen Wiig and Zack Galifianakis comedy “Masterminds,” which has seen its release date pushed back multiple times in the last few years due to the financial troubles of its distributor, Relativity. The movie is only expected to gross $11 million.
Directed by Jared Hess (“Napoleon Dynamite”), “Masterminds” is based on a real heist that happened in the late 1990s. The Loomis Fargo Robbery in North Carolina — also known as the Hillbilly Heist — was the second largest cash theft on U.S. soil at the time.
The PG-13 “Miss Peregrine,” starring Eva Green, Asa Butterfield and Samuel L. Jackson, centers on an alternate world discovered by Jacob (Butterfield) wherein its children have mind boggling powers. It was produced by Chernin Entertainment.
Finally, “Deepwater Horizon” is the cinematic dramatization of the offshore drilling rig disaster of April 2010, in which nearly a dozen people died and marked the worst oil spill in U.S. history.