Sequels and IP-driven blockbusters aren’t going away anytime soon. After all, the highest grossing films in the U.S. last year were a “Zootopia” sequel, a “Lilo & Stitch” remake, and an adaptation of the video game “Minecraft.”
But an audience survey conducted exclusively for WrapPRO by NRG shows that there is a growing appetite for films outside of the Hollywood franchise formula, something that was reflected in the success of original films like Warner Bros.’ “Sinners” and “Weapons” and which Sony Pictures Animation is hoping to capitalize on with its new original animated film, “Goat.”
In the latest survey conducted in August, 72% of respondents said they wanted more original films in theaters, up from 62% in February 2023. The percentage of those surveyed who agreed with the statement “There are too many franchises” has also increased slightly from 39% to 43% over the past two years.
But the survey also showed that audiences’ idea of an “original” film may be more flexible than the strict definition of the term, which is a film not based on any pre-existing creative work. When asked what they expect to see in a movie described as “original,” the top three responses were “something that isn’t a reboot or sequel,” “Characters and a world I haven’t seen before,” and “A movie not associated with any major brands.”
With that in mind, a group of tentpole films that are literary adaptations but would fit those above descriptions might get some traction with audiences. Those films include Emerald Fennell’s “Wuthering Heights,” which is projected for a $50 million-plus 4-day opening this weekend, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s adaptation of the Andy Weir sci-fi novel “Project Hail Mary” starring Ryan Gosling, and one of the most anticipated blockbusters of the summer, Christopher Nolan’s adaptation of Homer’s “The Odyssey.”
In the case of those films, the marketing focus has taken a bit of a throwback approach. Warner Bros. has prominently featured its leads Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie, the latter of whom is working with the studio for the first time since setting a Warner box office record with “Barbie.” “The Odyssey,” meanwhile, will try to build on the biopic record $975 million global run of “Oppenheimer” that cemented Nolan as the biggest box office draw of any director today.
In other words, it’s the stars that are driving these films, just like Hollywood used to do before franchises took over.
But for the truly original films on this year’s slate, their success will come down to how effectively their studios market their premises and characters. Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day” will certainly benefit from the filmmaker’s legendary status, but Spielberg has only had one film since 2012 that has grossed more than $500 million worldwide: Warner Bros.’ “Ready Player One” in 2018. We will see if Universal’s mysterious trailers around this UFO film are enough to get people intrigued in a month where franchise titles like “Toy Story 5” and “Supergirl” will be competing for attention.
The biggest test for original films will be on the animation side. Along with Sony’s “Goat,” several other studios will be trying to sell families on trying out new stories and characters without the comfort of familiarity, including Pixar’s “Hoppers,” DreamWorks’ “Forgotten Island,” and Disney’s “Hexed.”
Both these studios and theaters could really use a breakout success from somewhere in this bunch. The last original animated film to gross more than $500 million worldwide was Pixar’s “Coco” back in November 2017. The only one since the pandemic to get close was another Pixar title, “Elemental,” which rebounded from a poor $29.6 million opening in the U.S. to gross $154 million domestic and $496.4 million worldwide in summer 2023.
But compare that to ten years ago, when Disney’s “Zootopia” opened to $75 million from a spring release and went on to gross $341 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide. That film, of course, went on to spawn a sequel that did even better, becoming Hollywood’s highest grossing animated film ever with more than $1.8 billion while Pixar’s “Elio,” despite positive critical and audience reception, limped to just $154 million globally.
The streaming success of Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” shows that Hollywood can still launch new animated franchises. But whether it is because parents are more cost-conscious or strong reviews aren’t connecting with a wider audience, original theatrical animation has had a way harder time than the likes of “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Inside Out 2,” as families know with familiar franchises that they will get their money’s worth.
Those struggles are reflected in Sony’s opening weekend projections for “Goat,” which they are setting at a $20 million start on par with what “Elio” opened to last summer. While “Goat” was produced on a reported $80 million budget compared to the $200 million-plus of “Elio,” such a low number compared to the expected $200 million-plus 5-day opening of “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” on Easter weekend would show just how hard it is to get families to buy in to new characters and stories.
“Elemental” was able to leg out thanks to strong post-release buzz among audiences, and that is likely the path “Goat” and the other original films coming out in 2026 will have to take. Early tracking for Pixar’s “Hoppers” is looking somewhat better though, with projections currently at $35 million.
“If even a few of these films break through amid a crowded release calendar, it could signal a meaningful long-term shift in audience appetites — one that would embolden studios to widen the aperture for what they consider “safe” bets,” NRG wrote. “If not, the gravitational pull of franchises may increase even further.”
