After last weekend’s abysmal numbers, business is looking better at the box office to finish January thanks to stronger-than-expected opening weekends for 20th Century’s “Send Help,” Markiplier’s “Iron Lung,” and yes, even Amazon MGM’s “Melania.”
Industry estimates have “Send Help” and “Iron Lung” in a tight race for the No. 1 spot. “Send Help,” the Sam Raimi horror thriller about a survivalist office worker stuck on an island with her abusive boss, is tracking for an $18 million opening from 3,475 locations after a $7.2 million opening day.
But “Iron Lung” is giving it a run for its money with an estimated $17.3 million opening weekend from 3,015 locations, a wide release made possible thanks to a grassroots campaign by the film’s star and director, Mark “Markiplier” Fischbach.
That estimate comes after an $8.9 million opening day that put “Iron Lung” on the top of the Friday charts, setting it on course for the highest opening weekend ever for a self-distributed film in the United States, clearing pre-weekend projections for a $9-10 million start.
We won’t know likely until Sunday’s end whether one of YouTube’s most popular stars has topped the director of the “Evil Dead” and “Spider-Man” trilogies, though beyond this weekend, “Send Help” will probably have more legs with its strong word-of-mouth and appeal beyond the director’s core fanbase. The film has earned a B+ on CinemaScore to go with strong Rotten Tomatoes scores of 93% critics and 89% audience.
But the film that will get the most national coverage this weekend is “Melania,” which was projected for a $3-5 million opening weekend before release and is now estimated for an $8.1 million start from 1,778 locations.
Among right-wing films, this start for the Brett Ratner-directed doc about First Lady Melania Trump is just above the $7.6 million opening for the 2024 biopic “Reagan,” which opened in 2,754 locations.
And while Amazon MGM won’t recoup its reported $75 million acquisition and marketing spend on this movie, “Melania” is set to earn highest opening weekend for a non-concert film documentary in the past decade, topping the $5 million opening of Angel’s “After Death” in 2023.
Driven by walk-up traffic from older women among Donald Trump’s support base — opening night audience demo was 72% women over the age of 55– “Melania” has earned an A on CinemaScore.
Also opening this weekend is Black Bear’s “Shelter,” a Jason Statham action film that is opening to $5 million from 2,726 theaters. It will be fighting for a spot on the top 5 this weekend against Disney stalwarts “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” both of which are estimated to earn $5-6 million this weekend.
