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Andrew Curry

February 15, 2016 @ 4:06 PM

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The Voting Booth | Awards Tracker

Best Picture

One Battle After Another

Probability: 99% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Wins: BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

“One Battle After Another” marks the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
Sinners

Probability: 7.69% Up: 6.69%

Nominations: Oscars, PGA, Critics Choice

This century, when a nomination leader also won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, it also won Best Picture 89% of the time. The only holdout was “American Hustle.” However, only two movies have won Best Picture after only winning SAG ensemble: “Crash” and “Parasite,” neither of which was a nomination leader. “Sinners” has momentum, but a Best Picture win would be a massive upset.
Hamnet

Probability: 3.8% Down: -29.53%

Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Wins: GG

“Hamnet’s” wins and losses this season resemble three other films this century, including “Moonlight,” which won Best Picture.
Frankenstein

Probability: 3.8% Down: -10.49%

Nominations: Oscars, SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Five other films this century have gotten the same Best Picture nominations and wins as “Frankenstein.” One (“Million Dollar Baby”) won Best Picture.
Sentimental Value

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Wins: SAG

Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture or any acting categories.
Train Dreams

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Joel Edgerton last starred in a Best Picture nominee in 2012 (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
The Secret Agent

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, GG

Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” is now the second.
Marty Supreme

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

Only four films this century have won Best Actor and Best Picture: “Gladiator,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Artist” and “Oppenheimer.”
F1

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, PGA

Read TheWrap’s coverage with the team behind “F1” here
Bugonia

Probability: 1% No change: 0%

Nominations: Oscars, PGA, GG, Critics Choice

“Bugonia” marks Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.

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