Disney/20th Century/Lightstorm’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” won’t have an opening weekend as big as its 2022 predecessor “The Way of Water,” but is still on course to become Hollywood’s highest grossing film this year as industry projections have it earning a domestic opening of $90 million and a global opening of approximately $340 million.
This comes after the film earned $36.5 million on its opening day — including $12 million from Thursday previews — along with more than $100 million internationally with $17.7 million from China and more than $8 million each from France and Germany.
The domestic opening weekend won’t rank among the top 5 highest domestic openings this year, sliding just below the $92 million opening of “Jurassic World: Rebirth.”
But with the long legs usually offered by the holiday season, “Avatar 3” is expected to earn a higher final domestic total than some of the films with bigger opening weekends this year, including Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($117 million OW/$274 million total).
A $400 million-plus domestic run should be easily attainable for “Fire and Ash,” along with a global total well north of $1.5 billion that will make it the lowest grossing in the “Avatar” series but the second highest grossing film this year behind the Chinese animated film “Ne Zha 2.”
For the most devoted fans of James Cameron’s saga, “Fire and Ash” was another satisfying “Avatar” film, earning an A on CinemaScore, a Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 91%, and a 72% “definite recommend” rating on PostTrak, though the latter is a slip from the 82% “definite recommend” for “The Way of Water.”
In second on the charts this weekend is Angel’s “David,” which earned a $9.6 million opening day and is headed for a studio estimated $25 million opening weekend from 3,118 locations. That would pass the $19.6 million opening of “Sound of Freedom” to become the highest weekend ever for Angel, which recently shortened its name from Angel Studios.
Driven by online word-of-mouth from conservative commentators, faith-based moviegoers and members of the studio’s own subscriber base, the Angel Guild, “David” is expected to use the holiday corridor to pass the $60.2 million domestic run of its Easter animated film “The King of Kings” earlier this year. If it can leg out to a 3x multiple, that would be enough to pass the $72.9 million domestic run of Pixar’s “Elio.”
In third is Lionsgate’s “The Housemaid,” which earned $8 million from 3,015 locations on Friday and is expected to earn a $20 million opening weekend. While the thriller starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried earned a lower-than-expected B on CinemaScore, reception on Rotten Tomatoes was stronger at 77% critics and 92% audience.
Paramount’s “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run” is in fourth with an estimated $16 million opening from 3,557 locations. Such a result is to be expected given that the film’s core audience of families with younger kids are far more likely to turn out to see the film next week during Christmas break, so the full story on this film’s box office performance is yet to be uncovered.
The good news for “Sponge on the Run” is that it is earning the strongest audience reception ever for a “SpongeBob” movie with an A- on CinemaScore and an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Finally, A24’s “Marty Supreme” is getting a six-screen platform opening ahead of its wide release on Christmas Day. Industry estimates have the Josh Safdie thriller starring Timothee Chalamet earning $800,000 this weekend, which would give it the largest per theater average of the year. It is projected for a $10-15 million four-day opening next weekend and has a 94% critics RT score.
