Is Netflix Streaming Its Way Towards Disaster?

Is Netflix Streaming Its Way Towards Disaster?

Published: December 05, 2010 @ 11:22 pm
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By Edward Jay Epstein

Netflix, through the simple device of using the post office to bypass video stores, has become one of the great success stories of the new entertainment economy. It now claims 16 million subscribers who pay a monthly flat fee for an unlimited number of rentals.  

For this mail-in business, Netflix did not need the approval of the studios. It simply buys DVDs, as does anyone else, from retailers such as Wal-Mart then mails them out to subscribers. What makes this form of rental  legal is the “first sale doctrine,” which holds that once a person buys a DVD, he can rent it out to others without the permission of the copyright holder.

Through that court-approved doctrine, Netflix created its mail-in empire. For a monthly charge of as little as $9 a month, subscribers get any movie they choose on the Netfix website. Whenever a subscriber mails back his DVD in a stamped address envelope provided by Netflix he receives the next DVD he has ordered. There are no late fees.

Rather than backing its trucks up to Wal-Marts, Netflix buys most of its DVDs from wholesalers. Its average price of about $15 per copy. (Some studios also supply lower priced DVDs in return for Netflix delaying its mailing them until  a month after they are in video stores.)

Last year, Netflix took in $1.67 billion in subscription fees. For its mailing business, its major expense, other than purchasing the DVDs, is postage and handling. It sends out about  2 million discs a day, which requires maintaining 50 distribution centers and buying over  a half billion dollars worth of postage. Because of these expenses, its operating profit was only about 12 percent.

Netflix is now attempting to reduce its  vulnerability to postage rate hikes by streaming movies over the Internet.  

Reed Hastings, the chief executive and co-founder of Netflix, explained that this new strategy is part of his concept that Netflix is not just as a mail-order house but a full-service home entertainment distributor since streaming provides movies in digital form on everything from ipad, and iphones, to game console and TV sets.

Over the last three years, this streaming experiment has garnered  a growing number of subscribers partially because it has been absolutely free to the subscribers of its mail-in service.

Next year, however, it plans to charge for its streaming service. If it succeeds in converting its mail subscribers to streaming, it will in effect create a virtual channel that directly competes with the three major Pay-TV channels, HBO, Showtime, and Starz.

The problem here is that while streaming movies is a more efficient way of delivering movies than the mail, it requires a radically different business model. Unlike with mail-in DVDs, the first sales doctrine does not apply to streaming. So Netflix needs to license the electronic rights from the studios, and that is extremely expensive.

In the case of new movies, studios license slates of 20 or so titles in so-called output deals for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Tags: Edward Epstein, Movies, Netflix
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Edward Jay Epstein studied government and received a Ph.D from Harvard in 1973. His master's thesis on the search for political truth ("Inquest: The Warren Commission and the Establishment of Truth" and doctoral dissertation ("News From Nowhere") were both published as books. He has now written 15 books, including "The Big Picture" and "The Hollywood Economist" about the money considerations behind the movie business.

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