blair witch bridget jones baby box office

Lionsgate/Universal

This weekend’s box office tally shifted dramatically as predictions were far from reality. The biggest miscalculations were over “Blair Witch” — initially expected to top $22 million and come in at No. 1 — and “Bridget Jones’s Baby,” which was expected to bring in more than $14 million.

Neither came to pass, as Lionsgate’s scary movie sequel made only an estimated $9.7 million — more than 55 percent lower than predictions made early last week.

Also Read: Box Office: 'Blair Witch,' 'Bridget Jones's Baby' Bomb, 'Sully' Strikes Again

Universal, Miramax, StudioCanal and Working Title’s rom-com sequel starring Oscar winner Renée Zellweger didn’t fare much better, opening to just $8.2 million, about 42 percent under what trackers were predicting.

“Bridget Jones’s Baby” is on shaky ground as it was made for $35 million, not counting marketing costs. “Blair Witch” was made for just $5 million and is still positioned to turn a profit. “However, the reaction is such that Lionsgate will likely burn the franchise at the stake as it’s just not worth their investment,” said Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations.

Also Read: Box Office: 'Blair Witch,' 'Bridget Jones's Baby' Get Major Downgrades, 'Sully' Stays Afloat

So why did both titles swing hard and miss?

1. Both sequels are “past their prime.”
“The Blair Witch Project” was a massive sleeper hit in 1999, and “Bridget Jones’s Diary” proved popular in 2001. “They are three-quels that are well past their prime in terms of awareness,” said Bock. “This is a case where audiences certainly weren’t clamoring for more sequels.”

2. Plus, it’s been way too long since the last ones.
Too much time has passed since the last “Blair Witch” movie, 2000’s “Book of Shadows,” which made only $26.4 million domestically against a $15 million production budget. The same goes for “Bridget Jones,” as “Edge of Reason” came out in 2004 and made only $40.2 million in North America off a $40 million budget. (Though the film played robustly overseas, earning $222.3 million internationally.)

Also Read: How 1999's 'The Blair Witch Project' Foretold Hollywood's Shift to Viral Marketing

3. There are too many horror movies.
As far as “Blair Witch,” there are simply too many horror movies and thrillers in the marketplace, as “Don’t Breathe” continues to show unexpected staying power and “When the Bough Breaks” and “The Disappointments Room” are also competing for audience attention. Off a summer season that was loaded with scary movies, like “Lights Out,” “The Conjuring 2,” “The Purge: Election Year” and even “The Shallows,” ticket buyers have pretty much satisfied their desire for a fright.

4. Bridget Jones plays better in the U.K.
Zellweger’s famed character has more relevance across the pond, where Bridget Jones is “a national treasure,” said comScore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian. In the U.K. and Ireland, “Bridget Jones’s Baby” opened at No. 1 with $11.3 million, making it the U.K.’s biggest rom-com opening weekend on record. Proving the franchise plays better internationally, it opened to $30 million in 39 territories overseas.

Also Read: 'The Blair Witch Project': Where Are Original Stars, Directors Now? (Photos)

5. Trackers put too much stock in brand names.
Awareness for the two titles was inflated among box office trackers. The fact that both movies represent known intellectual properties artificially boosted confidence and distorted predictions.

6. September is a dumping ground.
The success of “Sully” has gone against conventional wisdom — far exceeding predictions two weekends in a row. But, when it comes to “Blair Witch” and the “Bridget Jones” sequel, Bock told TheWrap that high initial estimates on both titles represented a rare time when trackers got it wrong — really wrong. “Did everyone forget this is September? This is where most films go to die,” he said.

Also Read: 'Blair Witch' Is 'Effectively Scary,' But Should've Been 'Left Lost in the Woods,' Critics Say

7. Rom-coms are still dead.
Traditional rom-coms like “Sleepless in Seattle” and “What Women Want” were laid to rest about three years ago with box office bombs that included 2013’s “About Time” and 2011’s “Arthur” remake. They can’t be resurrected — in North America at least — where romantic storylines are treated as the b-plot in recent comedy hits including STX’s “Bad Moms” and even “Deadpool.” Also, when it comes to romantic fare, younger audiences are drawn more to weepy dramas these days, like “The Fault in Our Stars” and “Me Before You.”

'Blair Witch': A Short History of Found Footage Horror (Photos)

Though "The Blair Witch Project" didn't invent the found footage horror genre (that is often attributed to "Cannibal Holocaust") it helped popularize it and became the predecessor for some of the most popular fright flicks of the 21st Century. With the trend coming full circle with "Blair Witch," let's look back at some of the most notable films to use this grainy style.
Artisan Entertainment
"The Blair Witch Project" (1999):
Filmed on a budget of $60K, "The Blair Witch Project" grossed nearly $250M worldwide. Today it still has one of the highest return on investment ratios in box office history, though it has been eclipsed by a film it influenced, which we'll get to soon.
Artisan Entertainment
"The Black Door" (2001):
Following the release of "Blair Witch," the indie horror scene saw the arrival of several films that also worked a camera into its story. Here, a camera crew is brought in to document the investigation of a man who has been been infected with an occult curse.
NGK
"The Collingswood Story" (2002):
Instead of camcorders, this film is told entirely through dial-up webcams as a long-distance couple uncovers a satanic cult that threatens their lives. Though it got poor reviews, it became a cult hit among hardcore horror buffs and attained popularity purely through word-of-mouth.
Anchor Bay
"The Last Horror Movie" (2003):
This found footage spin on "Henry: Portrait of a Serial Killer" shows the videos made by a British wedding photographer who moonlights as a sadistic murderer. The film itself is presented as a snuff tape the killer left at a video rental store so he could stalk and kill whoever rents it.
Fangoria
"Zero Day" (2003):
While not strictly a horror movie, Ben Coccio's found footage take on the creation of a school shooting is still horrifying to watch. "Zero Day" shows two teens going about their lives while planning and executing a school shooting in which they kill 12 of their classmates.
Avatar Films
"Noroi (The Curse)" (2005):
One of the most critically-acclaimed found footage films of the 2000s, this Japanese horror film shows the footage of a paranormal documentarian who disappeared while working on a film about a violent demon called Kagutaba. The film earned praise for building a plot more complex than its J-Horror contemporaries.
Cathay-Keris Films
"Paranormal Activity" (2007):
In a watershed year for found footage, this was the crown jewel. The tale of a married couple who sets up cameras to monitor paranormal activity in their home grossed $193M worldwide on a $15K budget, passing "Blair Witch Project" for the ROI record and spawning a franchise that has released five sequels.
Paramount
"[REC]" (2007):
While not as financially successful as "Paranormal Activity," this Spanish film received just as much critical praise after it was screened out of competition at Venice. The footage for this film comes from a reporter and her cameraman who stumble upon a zombie outbreak in Barcelona while working on a story.
Filmax
"Diary of the Dead" (2007):
Even horror legend George A. Romero got in on the found footage craze, using it for an installment in his famous zombie series.
Dimension Films
"Exhibit A" (2007):
Sometimes found footage doesn't need demons or zombies to be horrifying. This British indie film starts by telling us that the footage we are about to see is evidence in a murder case before showing a father slowly lose his mind thanks to unbearable financial pressure. It's a pressure cooker of a film with an ending that's brutal in a far different way.
Warp Films
"Cloverfield" (2008):
Along with "Paranormal" and "Project," J.J. Abrams' "Cloverfield" completes the Triple Crown of found footage. Unlike those two films, though, Abrams gives us found footage on a bigger budget, showing a monster attack on New York through the camera footage of a couple caught in the crossfire. "Cloverfield" polarized critics when it was released, particularly due to its' allusions to 9/11.
Paramount
"Quarantine" (2008):
The found footage boom of '07 triggered an even bigger wave of popularity for the genre. One of the more notable results of this boom was "Quarantine," an American remake of "[REC]."
Screen Gems
"Trollhunter" (2010):
The next big foreign contribution to found footage came from Norwegian director André Øvredal. The film starts similarly to "Blair Witch Project," with a group of college students whose documentary project lands them in hot water, but unlike "Blair Witch," we get an explanation for what's going on.
SF Norge
"Grave Encounters" (2011):
A cult favorite that takes a bite out of paranormal reality shows like "Ghost Hunters" by presenting what might happen if the cast and crew of one of those shows actually encountered a life-threatening situation in one of those haunted houses.
Tribeca
"V/H/S" (2012):
Found footage had become so ubiquitous by 2012 that it finally got the anthology treatment. In this series of short films, a team of robbers is tasked to find a single tape from an old house. When they arrive, they find dozens of tapes, a small number of which become the other found footage short films featured in "V/H/S"
Bloody Disgusting
"Missing In The Mansion" (2012):
But just because a genre is ubiquitous doesn't mean it can't get a new spin. Take this viral internet short film, which was filmed entirely on Disneyland's Haunted Mansion Ride
Daws Bros.
"Unfriended" (2014):
While "The Collingswood Story" was made at a time before YouTube made webcams popular, "Unfriended" caught the wave of social media and concern over cyberbullying and wove it into a story told entirely from a computer screen.
Universal
"Blair Witch" (2016):
And now we've come full circle with modern found footage with a sequel of the film that proved its popularity. The brother of the college student who went off to find the Blair Witch in the first film heads off with a new team into the forest where the infamous footage was found. Cue an encore performance of mysterious disappearances, stick figures, and traveling in circles.
Artisan Entertainment

1 of 19

TheWrap takes a look back at the 17 years of shaky, grainy camera footage that began with “The Blair Witch Project” in 1999

Though "The Blair Witch Project" didn't invent the found footage horror genre (that is often attributed to "Cannibal Holocaust") it helped popularize it and became the predecessor for some of the most popular fright flicks of the 21st Century. With the trend coming full circle with "Blair Witch," let's look back at some of the most notable films to use this grainy style.

View In Gallery