Disney/Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is having a “is the glass half-full or half-empty” sort of weekend at the Memorial Day weekend box office, earning a 4-day start of $100 million domestic and $163 million worldwide, not counting Monday international grosses.
The glass half-empty view is that this start is roughly what “Solo: A Star Wars Story” opened to on Memorial Day weekend in 2018 before going on to gross a franchise live-action low $392 million worldwide.
“Mandalorian and Grogu” has a chance to avoid that fate with better legs over the coming weeks, but even in the best-case scenario it is looking at a box office total similar to the $521.8 million that Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” opened to a year ago, well shy of the record-breaking pedigree of “Star Wars.”
Another worrying trend is that 27% of the film’s audience is under the age of 25, compared to 37% for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” in 2017. That suggests that the “Star Wars” fanbase is starting to skew older, as the interest in “Star Wars” handed down from generation to generation might not be picked up as strongly by Gen Alpha kids.
The half-full read is that “Mandalorian and Grogu,” fanboy online grumbling aside, has been generally well received with an A- on CinemaScore, 4.5/5 overall on PostTrak, and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 62% critics and 89% audience, raising the chances of a box office endurance provided that it can withstand competition from early June titles like “Masters of the Universe” and “Scary Movie” aimed at Gen X and Millennial nostalgia.
“Mandalorian and Grogu” should also drive plenty of ancillary revenue through Baby Yoda merch, home platform revenue, and renewed interest in “Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge” at Disneyland and Walt Disney World, where the ride “Millennium Falcon: Smuggler’s Run” has been updated to include the main duo from the film.
But while “Star Wars” will drive much of the box office conversation, the most jaw-dropping result comes from Focus Features’ “Obsession,” which has earned an unbelievable $23.9 million 3-day/$30.3 million 4-day second weekend after opening to $17.1 million.
That is a 39% increase from the film’s opening weekend, matching Angel’s 2023 hit “Sound of Freedom” for the best second weekend hold ever by percentage outside of November and December, when strong second weekend holds are common thanks to pre-Thanksgiving/Christmas openings. “Sound of Freedom” earned a $19.6 million 3-day opening on Fourth of July weekend three years ago and then jumped roughly 39% to $27.2 million the following weekend.
Through Monday, “Obsession” has an estimated domestic total of $60 million; and depending on how it holds against A24’s “Backrooms,” which is projected for a $18-20 million opening, it could get as high as the $151 million domestic total of “Weapons” last year.
The good news continues with the rest of the May holdovers, which have combined with “Mandalorian” and “Obsession” to defy expectations of a weaker-than-usual holiday weekend. While studio sources projected an overall 4-day total of around $190 million, current estimates now have the weekend standing at $219 million, just below the $223 million overall total of 2022, when “Top Gun: Maverick” did all the heavy lifting with a $160 million 4-day opening.
Lionsgate/Universal’s “Michael” continues to hold strong with just a 23% drop in its fifth weekend to $20 million 3-day/$25.7 million 4-day, bringing its total to just under $320 million domestic and $788 million worldwide. This coming week, it will pass “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 1” to become the third highest grossing domestic film ever for Lionsgate before inflation adjustment.
Disney/20th Century’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2” is in fourth, as it will pass $200 million domestic on Monday with a $16.5 million 4-day fourth weekend, having also passed $600 million worldwide on Sunday.
Amazon MGM’s “The Sheep Detectives” completes the top 5, continuing its fight to break-even territory with $12.3 million in its third weekend for a $46.9 million domestic total.
Outside the top 5 is Paramount’s “Passenger,” a horror film that is facing significant competition from “Obsession” but is still on pace for a decent $10.5 million 4-day opening from 2,534 locations. But between “Obsession” becoming a hot ticket and “Backrooms” arriving next weekend, this may be a very frontloaded title as the movie has tepid Rotten Tomatoes scores of 44% critics and 52% audience to go with a B- on CinemaScore.
Lagging behind on the charts is Neon’s “I Love Boosters,” which is estimated for an opening of just $4.75 million from 1,750 locations. That equates to a per theater average of $2,609, ninth highest among all films this weekend.
While Boots Riley’s cartoonishly surreal satire of capitalism and the fashion industry got rave reviews out of SXSW with a 91% critics Rotten Tomatoes score, audience reception hasn’t been quite as enthusiastic with a B on CinemaScore and a 78% RT score. Sheer screen count may be what allows “I Love Boosters” to pass the box office run of Riley’s 2018 debut “Sorry to Bother You,” which made $17.5 million from a maximum screen count of 1,050.
