As cable TV gained widespread popularity in the 1980s and ’90s, experts predicted the demise of broadcast TV. They were wrong. The ’90s became widely known for having some of the broadcast networks’ best, most-watched series ever: “Seinfeld,” “ER,” “Friends” and “Home Improvement,” to name a few.
Although cable took longer to triumph than originally anticipated, it has reigned supreme for years for one simple reason: original content. HBO struck gold in 1998 with “Sex and the City” and followed that success with “The Sopranos” in 1999 and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” a year later.
When they noticed that cable TV offered better options, consumers began to shift their viewing away from the broadcast networks. From 2000 to 2009, viewership of ABC, CBS and NBC, as measured by average 24-hour ratings, fell an average of 5 percent per year. A shift in 2009 from live ratings to live-plus-3 ratings (viewership of the show in the 72-hour window following its live airing) helped curb the losses at those broadcast networks, keeping ratings basically flat through 2014.
Surprisingly, even as ratings fell, advertisers did not abandon broadcast networks. In fact, the medium as a whole increased gross ad revenue by almost $2 billion from 2000 to 2014, although the gains were slow, at just 1 percent per year on average.
Will advertisers keep pouring money into broadcast TV even as viewers increasingly migrate to cable? Well, that answer is a bit tricky. Industry analysts project slight decreases in broadcast TV gross ad revenues over the next four years, which certainly is to be expected given the declining viewership trends. But where will advertisers take their dollars?
Most analysts would say advertisers will shift to online, but websites and social media do not offer the same mass reach that TV does, at least not currently. For now, reaching 20 million people with a 30-second TV spot is easier than trying to target 20 million Facebook users with a single ad in their news feeds.
First Looks at New TV Shows for the 2016-17 Season (Updating Photos)
Marlon Wayans, Geena Davis and Michael Weatherly are just a few of the stars coming to TV series this fall.
NBC's "Trial & Error" stars John Lithgow as an eccentric professor accused of murdering his wife. Jeff Astrof ("The New Adventures of Old Christine") and Matt Miller are the writer-producers.
NBC's "Powerless," the first comedy set in the DC Comics universe, stars Vanessa Hudgens as an insurance adjuster who investigates damages caused by superheroes.
Fox's "APB" is a crime drama set in Chicago, complete with coverups and police corruption. Justin Kirk plays the tech titan who finances his own security force to bring justice to the city.
"Bull" on CBS stars Michael Weatherly as a jury consultant; the series is modeled on the real-life trial experiences of Dr. Phil.
Fox's "Lethal Weapon" is a reboot of the popular movie franchise, this time with Clayne Crawford ("Rectify") and Damon Wayans Sr. as a pair of bickering buddy cops.
Fox's "The Exorcist" stars Geena Davis as a woman troubled by dark visions and the two priests who investigate. Jeremy Slater will be the writer-producer.
Fox's comedy "The Mick" stars Kaitlin Olson as a low-life hustler who inherits his sister's fortune - and her three spoiled kids.
Fox's drama "Pitch" is about a young woman (Kylie Bunbury of "Under the Dome") who makes history by becoming the first woman to play Major League Baseball.
Fox's "Making History" is a time-travel comedy with Leighton Meester ("Gossip Girl") as one of three friends who share adventures across two centuries.
NBC's "Chicago Justice" is the latest crime drama from "Law & Order" mastermind Dick Wolf. A team of tough prosecutors battle crime while navigating complicated big-city politics.
NBC's "This is Us" is a dramedy from writer Dan Fogelman that revolves around an interdependent cast of characters, several of whom share the same birthday.
ABC's "Time After Time" is a time-travel drama from writer-producer Kevin Williamson about the search for Jack the Ripper.
NBC's "Marlon" is a family comedy starring "Scary Movie" star Marlon Wayans.
Tina Fey is among the executive producers on NBC's "Great News," a comedy about a woman (Andrea Martin) who rejoins the workforce as an intern at her daughter's TV station.
NBC's "Midnight, Texas" is a horror fantasy about vampires, witches and other supernatural beings in a remote Texas town. The network is saving the show for midseason.
CBS' "Kevin Can Wait" brings Kevin James back to his sitcom roots.
ABC's family comedy "Speechless" stars Minnie Driver as a mom with a special-needs kid.
CBS is rebooting the adventure series "MacGyver."
1 of 19
Here is what the broadcast networks have coming this fall and beyond
Marlon Wayans, Geena Davis and Michael Weatherly are just a few of the stars coming to TV series this fall.
Dan Schechter is a Managing Director and Partner at L.E.K. Consulting, and he leads the firm's Global Media, Entertainment & Technology practice. He has broad experience within the media, entertainment and technology sector, including TV, film, Internet content and commerce, radio, magazines, theme parks, advertising and news. He also has experience working with retail, consumer products, travel and industrial clients. Dan was awarded his MBA from Stanford University and his BA, cum laude, from Harvard University.
As cable TV gained widespread popularity in the 1980s and ’90s, experts predicted the demise of broadcast TV. They were wrong. The ’90s became widely known for having some of the broadcast networks’ best, most-watched series ever: “Seinfeld,” “ER,” “Friends” and “Home Improvement,” to name a few.
Surprisingly, even as ratings fell, advertisers did not abandon broadcast networks. In fact, the medium as a whole increased gross ad revenue by almost $2 billion from 2000 to 2014, although the gains were slow, at just 1 percent per year on average.
Will advertisers keep pouring money into broadcast TV even as viewers increasingly migrate to cable? Well, that answer is a bit tricky. Industry analysts project slight decreases in broadcast TV gross ad revenues over the next four years, which certainly is to be expected given the declining viewership trends. But where will advertisers take their dollars?
