It's a rare four-way scrum at the weekend box office — and though Matt Damon's "Elysium" looks to have the most muscle among the quartet of new entries, they're just diverse enough that each could succeed in the $25 million to $35 million range.
The multiplex mash-up includes Disney’s animated “Planes,” which also takes off Friday, along with the Jennifer Aniston-Jason Sudeikis comedy “We’re the Millers” and the teen action fantasy “Percy Jackson: Sea Of Monsters,” which opened in the top two spots Wednesday.
“I think that, at least this weekend, there’s room in the market for everyone,” Sony’s head of distribution Rory Bruer told TheWrap, “because the movies are all really different.”
He’s right about the second part for sure.
“We’re the Millers” is R-rated and should appeal to an older couples crowd. “Percy Jackson” is PG and aims to tap into teens familiar with the hugely popular book series. The “Cars” spin-off “Planes” is a PG-rated family film and “Elysium” is R-rated and aims at young males and action fans.
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Bruer likes the chances of his studio’s “Elysium” best, and so do the analysts, who envision a three-day total of around $35 million.
After its nearly $7 million first day – and receiving an “A-” CinemaScore – “We’re the Millers” is looking at around $35 million for the five days. That just ahead of the projections for “Planes” and, after taking in $5.4 million Wednesday, “Percy Jackson” could beat its $25 million five-day projection.
“We’re seeing a lot of anticipation for ‘Elysium,'” Bruer said, “given the director’s last film and the cast.”
Writer-director Neill Blomkamp‘s first film, “District 9,” was a surprise Best Picture Oscar nominee in 2009 and a major hit for Sony. It made $210 million globally – or seven times its budget.
“Elysium” is pricier at $115 million, but its box-office potential is considerably greater, particularly overseas where it begins its rollout in Russia this weekend.
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“Elysium” will be in more than 2,700 theaters — including a whopping 371 Imax screens, but less than “We’re the Millers” (3,260), “Percy Jackson” (roughly 3,000) and “Planes,” which will be in a market-high 3,400 locations.
DisneyToons’ 3D computer animated “Planes” is the sixth and final animated family film in a summer that may have overwhelmed parents and their pocket books. The last two kids films to hit theaters, “Turbo” and “The Smurfs 2,” both underperformed.
“Planes,” like “Cars,” is a major merchandising play for Disney and it could ultimately bring in more from toys and theme parks than it will at the box office. That’s saying something: the two “Cars” movies have brought in more than $1 billion at the worldwide box office.
Also read: 'Planes' Review: More Fun, at Least, Than Being Stuck in 'Cars'
And the studio plainly has confidence in it – enough to rescue it from direct-to-video last year and commission a feature sequel, “Planes: Fire & Rescue,” for next year.
The voice cast features Dane Cook, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, John Cleese, Brad Garrett, Val Kilmer, Anthony Edwards and Terri Hatcher. Cedric the Entertainer, Larry the Cable Guy and Sinbad are heard from, too. Klay Hall directs from a script by Jeffrrey Howard.
If “Planes” can open with a little better than the half the $66 million that “Cars 2” did in 2011, it could steal the weekend.