Can ‘Creed’ Knock Out ‘Hunger Games’ at Box Office?

“Creed” has an underdog’s shot at an upset that Rocky Balboa would be proud of, potentially knocking out reigning champ “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2” at the box office over the Thanksgiving weekend.

But the smart money says no. Pre-release tracking is unusually split on MGM/New Line Cinema’s “Creed,” which Warner Bros. will distribute in more than 3,350 theaters starting Wednesday: The estimates on the PG-13 boxing reboot range from $27 million to $35 million for the five-day Thanksgiving weekend.

Even that high-end figure doesn’t match the $50 million-plus that Jennifer Lawrence and “The Hunger Games” should ring up, providing its second weekend comes in at nearly half of its $102 million first weekend.

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The Disney-Pixar Animation film “The Good Dinosaur” is very much in the mix, too. It opens Wednesday as well, and should pull in more than $60 million over the five days.

The weekend’s other wide debut, Fox’s “Victor Frankenstein,” is not expected to be much of a factor in the box office ring.

Still, the soft response for “Mockingjay – Part 2” has been a surprise. The finale in Lionsgate Entertainment’s $2.5 billion “Hunger Games” franchise opened roughly $20 million under both projections and last year’s debut weekend of “Mockingjay – Part 1.” Its first-weekend worldwide haul of $247 million was 10 percent lower than the last film’s.

Also Read: 5 Reasons 'The Hunger Games' Finale Failed to Hit Box Office Heights

“That puts it on track for a domestic box office total as much as $100 million below our model,” B. Riley analyst Eric Wold said Monday.

While he and other analysts scaled back projections for the overall foreign and domestic gross of “Mockingjay – Part 2,” Lionsgate stock fell off roughly 4 percent on Monday before leveling off at a flat $35 per share.

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And that makes the “Hunger Games’ film vulnerable to a newcomer like “Creed,” which reteams writer-director Ryan Coogler and star Michael B. Jordan — who first worked together on the critically acclaimed low-budget 2013 indie hit “Fruitvale Station” — and brings them together with Rocky Balboa himself, Sylvester Stallone.

Arriving nearly 40 years after the original “Rocky” became an indie sensation that surprised with a Best Picture Oscar win, the $35 million production is already a hit with critics (93 percent positive on Rotten Tomatoes).

“It’s the right film at the right time,” said Exhibitor Relations media analyst Jeff Bock. “It’s an inspiring story, a brand that people know in ‘Rocky,’ with an actor people love in Stallone, in a role that people like him best in.”