Why the ‘Conclave’ Streaming Surge Is a Licensing Cautionary Tale | Chart

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Parrot Analytics unpacks how best-laid plans can be derailed by external events

Conclave
"Conclave" (Focus Features)

Donald Rumsfeld popularized the concept of known knownsknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns (though ‘popularized’ might be the wrong term for a convoluted quote from a Secretary of Defense about the Iraq War). “Conclave” provides an illustrative example of how to view content performance through this risk assessment framework.  

A movie’s premiere is something of a “known known” that can be choreographed months in advance to maximize its odds of success. Awards season is a “known unknown” for a movie like “Conclave.” The particular nominations, wins, and whether a film will be a breakout hit of the awards circuit can’t be known in advance, but can be planned for to some degree.

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