At the start of 2025, one studio executive told TheWrap that this year’s box office would have to stand as the new benchmark for theatrical performance. With no strikes or pandemics forcing widespread upheaval to the slate, the entire film industry would get a sense of what the new normal would truly look like.
That new status quo turned out to be one where the movie industry could still generate cultural phenomena that lead to big box office boom periods … but also one where large portions of the theatrical ecosystem remained greatly diminished and a truly healthy, 12-month-a-year industry remained out of reach.
If that level of consistency doesn’t return, more and more underperforming theaters will be closed for good as operating costs keep rising. And while the 2026 slate has its share of potential heavy hitters and an expected increase in the number of wide releases, cinemas could face another potential crisis down the line if Netflix completes its acquisition of Warner Bros.
The final total for the year won’t be announced by Comscore for another couple of days, but estimates have the final domestic total at $8.87 billion, just 1% ahead of last year’s $8.77 billion total but, crucially, about 21% below the $11.3 billion tally of 2019. This is after a summer season that was flat from 2024 and a fourth quarter that yielded end-of-year hits like “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” but began with an anemic October.
When taking a look at the top domestic grossing films of the year, the main reason why 2025 was able to manage a slight improvement over 2024 is because there were more hit films, with 11 titles grossing more than $200 million in the U.S. and Canada compared to eight the previous year. Sequels, remakes and franchises made up nearly all of this list, but among them is Ryan Coogler’s acclaimed original horror film “Sinners” with $279.6 million.
But on the flipside, while 2024 had two $600 million-plus domestic grossers in “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” 2025 had none. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” should top the year’s charts by the time it finishes its theatrical run in March, but it will take legs for it to get to $500 million domestic. For in-year grosses, the largest contributors are Warner Bros./Legendary’s “A Minecraft Movie” closely followed by Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” remake with $423 million each.
That could change in 2026. Films like “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” “Avengers: Doomsday” and even “The Odyssey” are candidates to make more than $500 million domestic while very likely to earn more than $1 billion worldwide.
But what theaters were really missing in 2025 was a consistent slate. From the start of the year, the box office found itself on the back foot with a terrible first quarter that only reached $1.42 billion domestically. Only two films grossed more than $100 million in the first three months of the year: Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” with $192 million and Disney’s “Mufasa,” a December 2024 release, with $126 million in January holdover totals.
In fact, if you take out “Mufasa” and fellow end-of-2024 releases “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” “Nosferatu,” and “A Complete Unknown” from the first-quarter charts, the grosses for the period sink to just $1.02 billion.
Yes, holiday holdovers have always been a key part of the early-year box office, but consider that the first quarter of 2024 yielded four $100 million-plus grossers — led by Warner/Legendary’s “Dune: Part Two” with help from “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” and “Kung Fu Panda 4” — and saw in-release grosses reach $1.41 billion without December films.
“Before the pandemic, we would call this an ‘orderly release pattern.’ For the past five years, theaters haven’t gotten that,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “We’ve essentially had two quarters in which the box office was running on an orderly release pattern along with a strong holiday period trying to carry the weight of the entire year.”
The arrival of “Minecraft” and “Sinners” in April brought a swift end to the drought and led theaters into a summer with plenty of healthy business. But were it not for the surprise success of “The Conjuring: Last Rites” and “Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle” in September, the box office would have fallen back into an autumn slump until November.
That slump was confined to October and the first half of November, but theaters couldn’t overcome the move of Lionsgate’s “Michael” and Warner Bros./New Line’s “Mortal Kombat II” to May 2026 as October grosses sank to a 27-year-low at just $429 million.
Theater owners have been calling on Hollywood to give them more films, and that should be coming. According to a recent report from Cinema United, there are 115 projected wide releases coming to theaters in 2026, up from 111 in 2025. With studios like Paramount looking to expand their acquisition division, and some films for the end of the year not yet announced, that figure could increase.
But it’s not just quantity. It’s also about spreading out the films across the calendar. If there are only enough films to cover 8-9 months of the year, then that’s bad news for smaller theaters that might get squeezed out for customers for the hit films that remain by larger multiplexes.
The pressure is on first-quarter 2026 films like Sony Animation’s “Goat,” Paramount’s “Scream 7,” Disney/Pixar’s “Hoppers,” Warner Bros.’ “The Bride!” and Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary” to make sure that next year gets off to a much better start and get enough people back to theaters for all exhibitors who have survived the pandemic and the strikes to keep the lights on.
“The more films you have, the less likely it is that the underperformance of one or two films ends up having a major impact on overall business and the less pressure that hit films have to make up for that downturn,” Dergarabedian said. “It would be great if theaters aren’t counting on ‘Project Hail Mary’ to dramatically pick up business because of another slow start to the year.”
