If there is anything that can encapsulate how the opening weekend of Universal/Illumination’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” unfolded, perhaps it is the headline of the review film critic William Bibbiani wrote for TheWrap: “This Lazy Junk Will Probably Make a Billion Dollars.”
It’s all there in nine words: the dismal — and from some corners, disdainful — reception that the second installment in the Nintendo animated blockbuster series has received from critics, juxtaposed with the prediction of a box office bonanza which, after a $190 million domestic/$372.5 million global 5-day opening, is well on its way to becoming true.
Despite a 41% Rotten Tomatoes score that’s even lower than the lukewarm 59% that “The Super Mario Bros.” movie earned in 2023, “Super Mario Galaxy” scored a launch that nearly matches the $204.6 million domestic/$377 million global launch of its predecessor. The law of diminishing returns that has struck other franchises had little effect here, as Universal is reporting a demographic of families and gamers that fueled the box office — similar to the first film.
In effect, the post-pandemic box office now has a new, reliable billion-dollar franchise that is very, very critic-proof. In other words, “Mario” is the “Transformers” of the 2020s.
Veteran exhibitors who were around during the years of the Obama Administration will no doubt remember the peak of Michael Bay’s reign atop the theatrical industry. No amount of negative reviews for “Transformers” sequels like “Revenge of the Fallen” or “Dark of the Moon” could stop fans of Optimus Prime from rolling out to theaters on a consistent basis.
In the early 2010s, “Transformers” stood alongside Marvel as the industry’s biggest tentpoles, with “Dark of the Moon” in 2011 and “Age of Extinction” in 2014 each passing $1.1 billion worldwide. In the case of “Age of Extinction,” it was the highest grossing film that year … while posting a Rotten Tomatoes score of 18%.
Just as no amount of bad reviews could stop “Transformers” fans from showing up to get their fix of Bayhem, no amount of poor reviews would stop “Mario” fans from showing up to see the likes of Rosalina, Fox McCloud, Bowser Jr. and even Mr. Game and Watch on this Easter weekend.
For the first time ever, an animated franchise has released two films with global 5-day openings of more than $350 million, and when the film hits $1 billion — something that only a shocking holdover drop could keep it from reaching — it will join Disney’s “Frozen” and “Zootopia” as the only animated franchises that hit that mark with the first two installments.
There is one major difference between “Mario” and “Transformers,” though, and that is in where its international grosses are coming from. “Transformers” was able to take advantage of coming out during the early stages of China’s rise as a box office power, raking in hundreds of millions from the partnership between Hollywood and China that lasted through the 2010s. “Transformers: Age of Extinction” made 35% of its international total from China, where it grossed $301 million.
The “Mario” films, on the other hand, are making money hand over fist in Latin America, Western Europe and the franchise’s home country of Japan, while the films’ grosses in China are a fraction of what “Transformers” made in China. “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” made just $25 million of its $785.9 million overseas total in China, and “Super Mario Galaxy” opened this weekend to $8.4 million against nine local releases.
Instead, the top opening weekend overseas market for “Super Mario Galaxy” is Mexico with a massive $29.1 million total, ranking among the top 5 highest ever for Hollywood movies and the largest ever for a Universal release. By comparison, in Mexico, “Transformers: Age of Extinction” grossed $33.5 million before inflation adjustment in its entire theatrical run in 2014 while “Super Mario Bros.” opened to $21.7 million in 2023.
“Galaxy” also matched the $19.7 million U.K. opening of “Mario Bros.,” topped its predecessor’s Germany opening with $15.6 million and did the same in France with $13 million. While the domestic opening for “Galaxy” was approximately 7% down from the $204.6 million of Mario Bros., the $182.4 million overseas start mostly offset that.
While “Zootopia 2” showed that China hasn’t completely shut itself off from Hollywood, the biggest hits have been the ones that often set studio or all-time records in dozens of territories rather than run up the score with Chinese grosses. Since the pandemic, only four films have earned a higher combined total outside the U.S., Canada and China than “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”: “Avatar: The Way of Water” ($1.39 billion), “Inside Out 2” ($998 million), “Avatar: Fire and Ash” ($910 million), and “Zootopia 2” ($787 million).
In other words, the global popularity of “Mario” has put it in the company of sequels to two of the biggest animated hits of the 2010s and the highest grossing film of all time. That is a testament to the legacy Nintendo’s plumber mascot has built over the past 40 years with video games that have become a part of countless childhoods.
The domestic demographics reflect this. As expected, families are the main group showing up in droves with 28% of the film’s audience under the age of 18. But 35% is coming from the 18-35 demographic, suggesting that nostalgic Gen Z and Millennial audiences are just as excited to see Mario and friends on the big screen as they were the last time, even if critics are taking a Super Hammer to it.
Over the next two weekends, “Super Mario Galaxy” should leg out very well with no competition for family audiences. But its global total will get one more huge jolt on April 24 when it comes out in Japan.
Like “Super Mario Bros.,” Universal is delaying release of the film in Nintendo’s home country until Golden Week, one of the Japanese box office’s most lucrative holiday periods and which allowed “Bros.” to gross just shy of $102 million, making Japan the film’s top international market.
Expect “Super Mario Galaxy” to match or exceed that total. Reviews be damned.
