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President Trump’s Vegas Odds of Making It Full Term Are Still Better Than Impeachment

If he dies, it’s a push

Do you guys really think Donald Trump will be impeached before he fulfills his four-year term? Don’t bet on it. Or, actually, definitely do, if you’re that confident.

That’s because online sportsbook Bovada is giving you pretty decent odds on such a hunch. Here’s the new line that just came out on Wednesday:

Will Donald Trump complete a full term as POTUS?
Yes        -275     (4/11)
No        +180     (9/5)

***Note: Must be President for full term (4 years) in office for ‘Yes’ to be graded a win. If deceased during incumbency, wagers are graded a push.

We’ll help roulette players interpret the confusing prop bet: Trump is favored to last his full four-year term, at 4-to-11. The “-275” number can be easily interpreted as “wager $275 to win $100.”

In other words, Las Vegas still thinks the new commander in chief is a few times more likely to last through 2020 than not.

For Negative Nancys — or perhaps, wishful thinkers — the POTUS is at 9-to-5 to not complete his full term, or +180. That line means one can lay $100 to win $180 if Trump doesn’t make it.

There’s an interesting caveat at the bottom of Bovada’s listing, however. If The Donald dies during his tenure, all bets will become a “push,” meaning everyone gets their money back. That can be seen as a safety harness for both the optimistic “Yes, he will complete” gamblers and for the casinos on an underdog “No” payout. Or perhaps it’s just a bad look to consider death (including assassination, we’ll morbidly point out and hope the Secret Service leaves us alone) when making odds.

The last time Bovada released similar odds were just after the election. Back on Nov. 17 last year, Trump was 1-to-3 (-300) to make it a full term, meaning bookmakers believe it’s slightly more likely now that he will.

Months ago, the president-elect was 5-to-1 (+500) to straight-up get impeached, a more-specific and significantly longer shot than he currently is to not “complete a full term as POTUS.”

Interpret that however you want. May the odds always be in your favor.